ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[drezee]

What storms have shown this "fist" feature? And any pictures?

Do a search on "fist" and you will find tons of data. Likely in the Dolly thread...I put a good bit of info in that thread.

[KWT]

What is this talk about a 'fist'?

Over the years, posters here have noticed the "fist" right before a hurricane explodes in intensity.

As I coined the term, I would say yes. Started at 2115z and wrapped around the center. RI starts in less than 6 hours...count it down...

Yep I agree, in fact its probably in RI already given the wya the eye has worked its way closer to the surface in the last 2-3hrs. Also taken a jog to the north as well over that time period.

[rtd2]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

Sanibel, it looks like from the KYW sounding that the GOM trough (ULL?) is at the 200 mb level. Deeper cyclone would be steered more by this layer. But, upper level winds are hostile now in the GOM which means more shear. I also did notice the anticyclone dropping south over Alabama. The models must be anticipating that trough to weaken and migrate west or southwest in response to the high dropping southward in AL. Be interesting with the 00Z models to see what effect (if any) the upper air soundings have on the future track. The data over the water is critical (we have a large data gap in the GOM for upper air).

Upper air soundings will not be in the 00z GFS run, not enough time to get the data in. Look for it in the 6z model runs.

Thought we established it WOULD be in the 0z run? atleast some of it?

[nolecaster]

What storms have shown this "fist" feature? And any pictures?

Do a search on "fist" and you will find tons of data. Likely in the Dolly thread...I put a good bit of info in that thread.

Good call drezee. I didn't remember who coined the term, but I know it's been around for a while.

Ivan is an example IIRC.

[ronjon]

Gus within Cuban RAD range now.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

[KWT]

Eye seems to be funneling out the cloud cover over it again and has also taken something of a northerly wobble as well...though it may be just because I'm seeing the eye become tighter and clear out, its hard to say?

[cpdaman]

What is this talk about a 'fist'?

Over the years, posters here have noticed the "fist" right before a hurricane explodes in intensity.

As I coined the term, I would say yes. Started at 2115z and wrapped around the center. RI starts in less than 6 hours...count it down...

i'm not convinced that this will verify..........do you have any examples that you can remember when it didn't happen ...yet

[bostonseminole]

973.4 mb

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane extrapolated 973mb, we'll see if AF suggests the same.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that for the NHC track to verify Gus would have to stay on his current heading all the way to the coast of LA, not likely.

[KWT]

Slow down in the strengthening but thats to be expected as the eye became a little less impressive over the last 2hrs though its getting there it seems again, will expect another good bout of strengthening in about 3hrs time.

[cpdaman]

is this a picture of good contitions for a TC

i heard Air force met state earlier he has no idea what the trough is going to do, and i looked and didn't find an update of this opinion

any pro's questioning the "good enviornment" that Gustav may have in 24- 48 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Ptarmigan]

From an amateur's point of view, looks like Gustav is strengthening and getting larger. It would not surprise me if it becomes a Category 3 hurricane by tomorrow morning.

[drezee]

second fist looks to be popping, but it normally doesn't start in the NE quad...Normaly N or W of center

[KWT]

Eye really developing well now, north side of the eyewall open now thanks to a little dry slot but should be workerd out of the system by Dmax tomorrow morning, eye is on the southern side of the large 'eye' if that makes sense...

[CypressMike]

Eye seems to be funneling out the cloud cover over it again and has also taken something of a northerly wobble as well...though it may be just because I'm seeing the eye become tighter and clear out, its hard to say?

If my assumption is correct, the feature you are referring to is not the eye. The center of the storm is west of the clear spot seen in recent images, and it appears to be right on track with the proposed path given by the NHC. The clear spot appears to be dry air that got entrained in the circulation.

[KWT]

second fist looks to be popping, but it normally doesn't start in the NE quad...Normaly N or W of center

Its a good thing that as it should really hurt that little dry slot that is rotating around the center. It's impressive that its deepened whilst still having a dry slot and also a ragged eye.

CypressMike, check the high resolution IR imagery, the eye is very obvious there.

[Sanibel]

Outer circulation on Key West long range now. Sort of combined with low pressure trough:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Windy]

Looks to me that for the NHC track to verify Gus would have to stay on his current heading all the way to the coast of LA, not likely.

Why do you feel that is not likely? It would help if people would present some sort of forecasting evidence for their assertions.

[vaffie]

Probably just noise, but the storm may be moving more westerly most recently. Latest reading was 8 minutes west and 1 minute south of the previous one.

1909N 07951W

1910N 07943W