Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Bobbyh83]

I'll be off the board for a few days, my other grandmother just passed away this morning. She was about to be 99.

I lurk here. Read and dont post generally but had to log in to say I'm sorry for your loss. Imagine what she saw from the 1920s to now. What a ride that had to be.

[Steve]

I'll be off the board for a few days, my other grandmother just passed away this morning. She was about to be 99.

Sorry for your family’s loss Hockey.

[Tireman4]

I'll be off the board for a few days, my other grandmother just passed away this morning. She was about to be 99.

Sorry for your family’s loss Hockey.

Prayers and condolences to you and your family Hockey.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning



.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

This long term AFD will be another tail of uncertainty. But this
time, the uncertainty is less a question of whether or not there
will be a winter storm and more about specific characteristics of
the increasingly likely winter storm. Over the last 24 hours, the
guidance support for wintry precipitation over southeast Texas has
increased significantly. This is evident in both the
deterministic and ensemble guidance. One of the keys to the
increasing confidence appears to be the model guidance depiction
of a strong mid/upper shortwave that is expected to dive southward
over W CONUS on Sunday into Monday. Its southward trajectory will
be along the periphery of a long wave deep layer trough that will
place the western 2/3rds of CONUS in a frigidly cold pattern for
at least the first half of next week.

The cold will be felt in time for the Houston Marathon on Sunday
morning. Marathon temperatures during the morning hours are
expected to be in the 30s. These temps will be accompanied by
gusty north winds, making the temperature feel like it`s in the
20s. Sunday will feature ample sunshine. But robust CAA should
keep highs in the 40s. Sunday night will be mostly clear and sub
freezing.

The aforementioned shortwave will approach Texas from SW CONUS on
Sunday. During my last shift Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, a significant plurality of the data was not amplifying
the disturbance, thus denying our region the crucial large scale
lift that would allow for the development of widespread
precipitation. As a result, we were experiencing a drying trend
in some of the data along with a modest warming trend. But that
data is beginning to look more like an aberration than a
reasonable scenario at this point due to increasing confidence in
the amplification of the mid/upper shortwave as it dives southward
into SW CONUS before pushing eastward towards Texas. The SE TX
atmosphere will begin to feel the trough`s PVA by Monday
afternoon. The resulting lift as well as ML moisture surging
northward will result in increasing clouds and eventually the
chance of a few rain and snow showers.

Moisture and lift maximizes Monday night into Tuesday as the
trough pushes into W TX. Meanwhile offshore, a steeping baroclinic
zone will likely aid in the development of a surface trough or
low off the Texas Coast. The gradient between the building arctic
high to the north and the pressure falls over the Gulf will
increase north to northeast winds during this time frame, likely
enhancing CAA and potentially resulting in gales near the coast
and offshore. With ample lift, moisture, and convergence, one has
to believe that there is a good chance of precipitation especially
across our southern and coastal counties. Monday night - Tuesday
PoPs range from 30-40 in our far northern Piney Woods counties to
near 70 at the coast (~60 in Houston). It was tempting to go even
higher with those PoPs from I-10 to the coast. Given the expected
mostly subfreezing vertical temperature profile, the chance of
this precip falling as snow continues to increase. So now let`s
get into the more uncertain aspects of the system.

There are multiple factors that will influence snowfall amounts.
Snowfall to QPF ratios could range from 6:1 to as high as 13:1.
The latter value is very unusual in southeast Texas but is
supported by some of the data. For our forecast, we went with a
more conservative 6:1 near the coast to 8:1 farther inland. But if
we trend temperatures lower in the direction of the ECMWF, the
ratios will need to be increased. Another factor is the speed of
the mid/upper trough. Faster moving = less precip. Slower moving =
more precip. Faster moving would not only decrease snowfall
totals, but it would increase the chance of clearing skies and
snow melting sunshine Tuesday afternoon, having implications on
Tuesday`s afternoon and overnight temperatures. There`s also the
complex microphysics involved in compaction and melting while snow
is falling. And of course, there`s the prospect of rain and/or
freezing rain being in the mix (more likely near the coast). So
although the recent trends look good for frozen precip in
southeast Texas, there remains uncertainty regarding aspects of
the many moving parts that could limit or enhance snowfall and ice
accumulation. This all being said, it doesn`t take much snow and
ice to cause travel issues in our neck of the woods. We also lack
the higher resolution short range guidance that may better resolve
the baroclinic zone and other mesoscale features that could
influence the boundary between rain and snow as well as the winds.

I can`t write this AFD without talking about temperatures. Hard
Freeze temperatures (at or below 24F) are likely north and west of
Houston Sunday and Monday night. By Tuesday night, we cannot rule
out hard freezing temps almost down to the coast. Tuesday night`s
lows will be highly dependent on how much snow falls and doesn`t
melt on Tuesday. The cold is expected to gradually modify
during the second half of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

High clouds streaming overhead this morning, while light southerly
winds begin to set up. Onshore winds crank up through the morning,
become 10-15 with gusts 20+ this afternoon. Expecting some
scattered sprinkles and perhaps even an isolated light shower
mid-day to afternoon, but opting to omit even a PROB30 line for
now. Activity will be sparse at most and confidence of impact to
any specific terminal is very low. Gusty winds carry into
evening and despite gusts, strong low level jet gives cause for
LLWS mentions across the area. Wind shift with frontal passage is
hinted at towards the very end of the period, but only explicitly
occurs in the IAH extended.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Patchy fog is possible this morning in the bays and near the
coast. There is a better chance of patchy dense fog this evening
for the same areas as a cold front approaches. Increasing onshore
flow is expected ahead of the front. Moderate to strong northerly
winds are expected in the front`s wake this weekend, likely
warranting Small Craft Advisories. Winds are expected to become
more northeasterly and strengthen further early next week,
possibly reaching gale conditions over the Gulf waters and
possibly at the coast and in the bays. In addition, we are
monitoring the growing potential for frozen precipitation near the
coast by Monday night and Tuesday. Low water levels are possible
Sun night into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 45 57 29 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 54 62 34 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 57 63 38 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[orangeblood]

Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.

[bbowman7]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

[wxman57]

Okay, who opened up both my walls? I don't like what I'm seeing for Houston. Temps may be cold enough that we'll have to shut the water off from Monday PM to Thursday PM. I purchased a couple Freeze Misers for my outdoor spigots. They automatically drip water when the temperature drops below 37F. Just screw it on and turn the water on full blast. Nothing comes out until the temperature hits 37. With the water fully on, the drip won't stop in the middle of the night when water pressure drops from others dripping faucets. They're at Home Depot.

[Charleswachal]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

Honestly this storm appears to be setting up mostly south of you. Maybe some light snow and obviously very cold temperatures.

[orangeblood]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

Honestly this storm appears to be setting up mostly south of you. Maybe some light snow and obviously very cold temperatures.

Looking at latest trends, that area of Texas could be ground zero for heavy snow. Still way too early to tell where the heavy axis will set up but potential is there for this system to be quite disruptive. Here are the latest OP snowfall depictions (NOTE: some of the depictions don't account for sleet which will lower these amounts in reality)

[TropicalTundra]

Radar looks nice and green. Likely too dry for moderate rain but some Mets said it might sprinkle for some. Still need it down here

[TomballEd]

6Z ICON is interesting IMBY. Sleet and freezing rain turning to snow in SETX. Total precip 3/4 to 1 inch. Precip also doesn't end until Tuesday afternoon, meaning there will be little insolation, so most of what is on the road Tuesday will still be on the roads. WxMan57 notes ICON is not a preferred model in these situations. But this would be snow over ice, a bad situation for Houston. I know TXDot has brine trucks, I doubt they have plows.

[Ralph's Weather]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

Lufkin would be my current bet for the most likely place in TX to get 6" out of this early week event. Far enough north to be mostly snow and far enough south to have good moisture.

[TomballEd]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

Honestly this storm appears to be setting up mostly south of you. Maybe some light snow and obviously very cold temperatures.

Looking at latest trends, that area of Texas could be ground zero for heavy snow. Still way too early to tell where the heavy axis will set up but potential is there for this system to be quite disruptive. Here are the latest OP snowfall depictions (NOTE: some of the depictions don't account for sleet which will lower these amounts in reality)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737093600/1737568800-h92hflwa5zk.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737093600/1737568800-eb5ZfEzoBy0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737072000/1737568800-fQUOZyqvOsU.png

They show banding. I've read enough NEUSA chats to know where the bands set up (when meso models come in range, they might have a better depiction) people can get more snow/ice than expected, some get less. In other news, local media will be insane tonight if 12Z and 18Z models hold serve.
 https://x.com/stormchaser4850/status/1880236024556834888

[wxman57]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

I'm in Houston. Snow likely up there starting Monday evening and ending Tuesday evening. Possible 3-5 inches snow on Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing Sunday afternoon to noon Monday then from Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon. Lowest temperature on Wednesday morning - mid teens.

[gboudx]

From jeff this morning:

Arctic air mass arrives late this weekend

Winter storm increasingly likely late Monday-Tuesday with accumulating winter precipitation

Initial cold front will arrive in SE TX on Saturday with cold air slowly filtering into the region during the afternoon hours…this will be noticed the most after dark on Saturday as temperatures fall into the 30’s for most areas by Sunday AM. A freeze can be expected north of HWY 105 Sunday AM. Arctic surge will arrive Sunday night with temperatures falling below freezing for much of the area and hard freeze possible north of HWY 105. Gusty northerly winds will drive wind chills into the 10’s for many areas by Monday morning. Clouds begin to increase Monday and this will prevent much warming with highs only in the upper 30’s and then much of the area falls below freezing late Monday afternoon and with widespread precipitation looks to remain below freezing all day on Tuesday into midday Wednesday. In other words locations could fall below freezing late Monday and not rise above freezing until midday Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday and beyond will be impacted by clouds and precipitation so there could be some adjustments up or down depending on how this part of the forecast trends.

While it will be cold and winter precipitation chances are increasing…there is currently nothing to suggest this will be anywhere near the duration or intensity of the Feb 2021 event!

Monday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 23-26
North of I-10: 27-30
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 28-30
Coastal Counties: 29-31
Beaches/Galveston: 32-34

Tuesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 25-30
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 26-30
Coastal Counties: 28-31
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32


Proper preparations and precautions for sub-freezing conditions for many hours should be completed this weekend.

1. Protect sensitive vegetation.
2. Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained).
3. Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources do not freeze over.
4. Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.

Winter Precipitation:
After some disagreement yesterday, guidance has trended back toward the wetter solutions for the area on Monday PM-Tuesday which is increasing the chances for winter precipitation across the area. Mid and upper level energy will move toward Texas starting early Monday helping to force a coastal low in the western Gulf of Mexico. Copious moisture looks to push northward into the cold arctic air mass with precipitation expanding over the region late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast soundings continue to come in cold through the entire air column supporting more of a snow profile than any other P-type, but could see the precipitation begin as a bit of a mixture of freezing rain (especially near the coast) and sleet before fully transitioning toward snow. Air column and moisture throughout the air column support some decent snow accumulations for the area…but given we are still 4 days out and there will likely be some changes to the thermal profile will hold off on accumulations at this point as various factors could change the ultimate outcome.

While snow is a generally favored winter P-type versus freezing rain…the initial amounts of precipitation will likely melt some on contact forming a layer of ice resulting in potentially significant travel impacts. Expect potential travel impacts to linger into Wednesday and possibly early Thursday with cold overnight temperatures refreezing any daytime melting. How long impacts remain will be determined by the amount of accumulation locations receive.

Monitor forecasts over the weekend for trends and changes on potential winter weather early next week. Confidence will likely increase over the weekend as we begin to come within range of the higher resolution guidance.

[Brent]

Someone in OKC said this could be our last warm day til March

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza at Space City Weather

A continuously evolving winter storm threat to Houston next week tries to get a little snowier today
January 17, 2025 at 8:17 am by Matt Lanza


In brief: A complicated winter storm for Houston next week continues to give us fits in weather modeling, with today’s flavor being the potential for more snow and sleet than anything else. However, we expect the forecast to continue changing over the weekend and will keep you posted. Either way, travel across the Houston area may become very difficult Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winter storm update
What has changed since yesterday? Well, a lot. The storm is back. But this time it’s a bit colder overall, which means perhaps more in the way of snow and sleet than ice. That would be good news. That said, there remains a ton of uncertainty. As a native of New Jersey and having cut my teeth forecasting in Upstate New York, I have learned to never take a winter weather forecast from models literally. This is doubly true in the South where snow and ice are generally outside the bounds of climatology, which tends to give models fits and leads to us having to caveat every single thing we say.


The last several runs of the National Blend of Models showing much fluctuation in snow totals in Houston. This remains a fluid and complicated situation.
What are we confident in? The timing. Precipitation should begin, lightly on Monday afternoon or evening. The height of the storm would likely be from about 4 AM to Noon Tuesday, with conditions slowly improving Tuesday afternoon. We are also fairly confident that Wednesday morning should be the coldest morning next week. A tropical-plant damaging freeze is likely on at least one or two mornings. An irrigation system damaging freeze is also likely if precautions are not taken.

What are we not confident in? How much of what falls where. While the models have brought the storm back into the forecast since yesterday, they remain a bit split on exactly how it plays out. We can say that in general today, it appears the highest odds of snow are north and east of Houston and the highest odds of ice are south of Houston and near the coast. Beyond that? We can’t say much. Unfortunately, that’s the most important question to answer in terms of travel conditions, school closures, etc. We will get some confidence on this through the weekend. We would think that by the morning of the MLK holiday, decisionmakers will have enough to work with.

What else aren’t we confident in? How cold it gets Wednesday morning. Snow cover is a significant component of what we refer to in meteorology as “ideal rational cooling,” the premise being clear skies, light winds, and snow cover all contribute toward an ideal scenario for cold weather. Without snow cover next week, we’ll likely see mostly 20s for lows with a few teens north. Cold for sure, but nothing extreme. However, let’s say we get 2″ of snow across Houston. Then we could easily shave an additional 5 degrees off that, nudging us into the teens everywhere except the coast.


The current low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning from the NWS is cold, but if we have snow cover, those areas would be easily 5 degrees colder.
So there is a lot to unpack here still, and over the next couple days we should begin to see clarity. Eric and I will keep you posted on all that as it evolves with regular updates through the weekend.

Houston Marathon
I admire anyone that runs a marathon. I especially admire anyone that does so with temperatures in the 30s and a north wind gusting up to 25 mph or so. That’s what we have for you on Sunday. Temps will rise a little through the run, possibly getting to near 40 degrees by the end, but either way, it’s going to be very cold. Good luck to Eric and to all those participating in the run(s) this year!

Rest of the forecast
For those of you with weekend plans, there could be an isolated shower this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon as the front moves in, but otherwise it looks dry. Temperatures will peak in the upper-60s or low-70s today, so bust out the shorts and enjoy! Tomorrow will likely get into the 60s before the front hits in the afternoon. Temperatures will then fall tomorrow evening through the 50s and 40s and into the 30s in most of the area, with some 20s in more rural spots north of I-20 by Sunday morning. Sunday gets up to the low or mid-40s, maybe and looks windy and cold.


NWS forecast for Houston through next week.
Monday will start in the 20s and warm into the upper-30s to low-40s. Depending on how the storm evolves, look for lows in the upper-20s and highs in the low or mid-30s on Tuesday with a breeze as well. Wednesday will probably get up near 40, but as noted above, there is some uncertainty on how cold it gets in the morning. And then a more proper warm up ensues for later next week.

Again, we will keep you posted regularly through the weekend on next week’s cold and potential winter precipitation.

[Portastorm]

Okay, who opened up both my walls? I don't like what I'm seeing for Houston. Temps may be cold enough that we'll have to shut the water off from Monday PM to Thursday PM. I purchased a couple Freeze Misers for my outdoor spigots. They automatically drip water when the temperature drops below 37F. Just screw it on and turn the water on full blast. Nothing comes out until the temperature hits 37. With the water fully on, the drip won't stop in the middle of the night when water pressure drops from others dripping faucets. They're at Home Depot.

You better get working buddy ... those walls are coming down!

As for the Freeze Miser device ... yes, I have heard folks say that it is a very good purchase. Supposedly you can get them also via Amazon. I'm going to look into it myself.

[Snowman67]

Good morning. Follow these threads often during the winter time, but never post. I now have a question due to my location and the work I do.

I am about an hour and a half north of Houston off of 59 (Lufkin area). We usually do not get much of anything down this way, now here we are with this storm! Can someone give me some information and thoughts on next week for my area? Please put in a "Weather for Dummies" format. Thanks in advance!!

I'm in Houston. Snow likely up there starting Monday evening and ending Tuesday evening. Possible 3-5 inches snow on Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing Sunday afternoon to noon Monday then from Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon. Lowest temperature on Wednesday morning - mid teens.

57- what are your predictions with the data you currently have for the Tomball/Magnolia area?

[GeauxTigers]

Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1737093600/1737612000-OvzvYyWeRDc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1737093600/1737612000-PuQ1WFwMjb4.png

So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol