ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep Vaffie I thought it was wobbling north but instead I was just seeing the eye become better defined again, nearly totally closed up again looking at IR. Another 3-4hrs and then we may see some faster strengthening again.

[wxman57]

Probably just noise, but the storm may be moving more westerly most recently. Latest reading was 8 minutes west and 1 minute south of the previous one.

1909N 07951W

1910N 07943W

The eye is 30 miles across. Don't assume that the VDMs are always in the exact center of the eye. Look at the long-term track.

I'm measuring a motion toward 293 degrees over the past 6 hours, and a movement of 52nm. That's about 7.5 kts.

[CrazyC83]

Right now, awaiting the VDM but current estimates are a pressure of 974mb and an intensity of 70 kt.

[KWT]

Yep a pretty low pressure being found considering the winds aren't all that impressive, guess this one will be like Katrina and catch up but will it do it in time before Cuba?

[RL3AO]

Movment from 1720 to 2305z.

18 44N, 79 08W to 19 08N, 79 54W.

North 24 minutes, west 46 minutes.

Movement of 298 (WNW)

[wxman57]

Wxman 57 share your latest thoughts on the evolution of the track and intensity with us

I've been looking at Gustav alone since 4am. Just got home from a 13 hour shift. About 10 more of those to go, maybe. We actually came up with the exact same track as the NHC an hour before they put theirs out this afternoon. But it does look strange tracking in such a straight line. I think it may bend right a bit after crossing Cuba then back left as it nears the coast of Louisiana. It would take just a tiny left bend near landfall to put the center into Sabine Pass or the upper TX coast (east of Galveston).

I always throw out the NOGAPS as a hurricane model (NAM, too). But the consensus models do use the NOGAPS as a member, so they've been shifted slightly left by the left-leaning NOGAPS today. I think if Gustav deviates from the track, then it may move ashore a bit farther west in SW LA.

Looks like it'll be a Cat 3 by tomorrow morning the way it's going now. I have it to 130 mph in the Gulf. Could be stronger. Will probably weaken a bit before landfall due to increasing shear.

[Sjones]

Wxman 57 share your latest thoughts on the evolution of the track and intensity with us

I've been looking at Gustav alone since 4am. Just got home from a 13 hour shift. About 10 more of those to go, maybe. We actually came up with the exact same track as the NHC an hour before they put theirs out this afternoon. But it does look strange tracking in such a straight line. I think it may bend right a bit after crossing Cuba then back left as it nears the coast of Louisiana. It would take just a tiny left bend near landfall to put the center into Sabine Pass or the upper TX coast (east of Galveston).

I always throw out the NOGAPS as a hurricane model (NAM, too). But the consensus models do use the NOGAPS as a member, so they've been shifted slightly left by the left-leaning NOGAPS today. I think if Gustav deviates from the track, then it may move ashore a bit farther west in SW LA.

Looks like it'll be a Cat 3 by tomorrow morning the way it's going now. I have it to 130 mph in the Gulf. Could be stronger. Will probably weaken a bit before landfall due to increasing shear.

WOW! Gulp!

[RL3AO]

9mb drop in 5hr 45 minutes or 1.56 mb/hr.

[KWT]

Very interesting thoughts, given your progging a major before Cuban landfall it all depends on exactly how Gustav responds to going over land yet again and exactly where it goes ashore but it won't weaken much at all, and theres the loop current for it to pass through as well....

[Dean4Storms]

Wxman 57 share your latest thoughts on the evolution of the track and intensity with us

I've been looking at Gustav alone since 4am. Just got home from a 13 hour shift. About 10 more of those to go, maybe. We actually came up with the exact same track as the NHC an hour before they put theirs out this afternoon. But it does look strange tracking in such a straight line. I think it may bend right a bit after crossing Cuba then back left as it nears the coast of Louisiana. It would take just a tiny left bend near landfall to put the center into Sabine Pass or the upper TX coast (east of Galveston).

I always throw out the NOGAPS as a hurricane model (NAM, too). But the consensus models do use the NOGAPS as a member, so they've been shifted slightly left by the left-leaning NOGAPS today. I think if Gustav deviates from the track, then it may move ashore a bit farther west in SW LA.

Looks like it'll be a Cat 3 by tomorrow morning the way it's going now. I have it to 130 mph in the Gulf. Could be stronger. Will probably weaken a bit before landfall due to increasing shear.

That is what I said in an earlier post, that NHC track is about as straight as they come and we all know these storms hardly ever travel over 1000 miles on a straight line so therefore the cone.

[srainhoutx]

Wxman 57 share your latest thoughts on the evolution of the track and intensity with us

I've been looking at Gustav alone since 4am. Just got home from a 13 hour shift. About 10 more of those to go, maybe. We actually came up with the exact same track as the NHC an hour before they put theirs out this afternoon. But it does look strange tracking in such a straight line. I think it may bend right a bit after crossing Cuba then back left as it nears the coast of Louisiana. It would take just a tiny left bend near landfall to put the center into Sabine Pass or the upper TX coast (east of Galveston).

I always throw out the NOGAPS as a hurricane model (NAM, too). But the consensus models do use the NOGAPS as a member, so they've been shifted slightly left by the left-leaning NOGAPS today. I think if Gustav deviates from the track, then it may move ashore a bit farther west in SW LA.

Looks like it'll be a Cat 3 by tomorrow morning the way it's going now. I have it to 130 mph in the Gulf. Could be stronger. Will probably weaken a bit before landfall due to increasing shear.

Thans as always wxman57. Drop by "our local Forum" if you get a chance.

[Sanibel]

Wind increases should soon follow pressure drops and structure improvements.

[KWT]

Big convective burst over the NE quadrant, really is huge and blowing away the dry slot that was present before, expect a sharper decline in pressure once again within the next 3-4hrs and the winds to really ramp up in the NE quadrant.

[peteywheatstraw]

What's the possibility of this thing being influenced by the deep digging upper level trough in the Gulf? The trough could very well steer it into the FL panhandle, not LA if Gustav builds up high enough. Anyway, the storm will likely experience some shear and wakening even if it does approach the N Gulf coast.

[deltadog03]

Big convective burst over the NE quadrant, really is huge and blowing away the dry slot that was present before, expect a sharper decline in pressure once again within the next 3-4hrs and the winds to really ramp up in the NE quadrant.

I think the "eye"/center is somewhere in the doughnut of that deep convection...What do you think?

[cpdaman]

Big convective burst over the NE quadrant, really is huge and blowing away the dry slot that was present before, expect a sharper decline in pressure once again within the next 3-4hrs and the winds to really ramp up in the NE quadrant.

I think the "eye"/center is somewhere in the doughnut of that deep convection...What do you think?

i think i was a fool to question "the mighty fist" looks well on it's way. looking for pressure to fall through the floor

[KWT]

The eye looks pretty large to me Delta, the big convective blowu has just somewhat covered up the eye but its destroyed the dry slot that was there before.

[deltadog03]

True...gonna be hard to get a true movement...The eye, is large...

[tolakram]

0000z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[93superstorm]

HWRF shows over 150 mph winds over lanfall: