ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE is increasing in the GOM which will help to fuel TD9.

Obiviuously, when it spins up more, it will also pull heat out of the water.

[Alyono]

Alyono, will a stronger storm pull it more east or more northerly?

I think its going NNE regardless, and then turning northeast. steering flow too uniform

[drezee]

airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&callsign=NASA872&zoom=4&mapid=_11&lat=37.9390&lng=-75.4614



Not a single bird in the air....wheels up guys...please

[cdavis6287]

Alyono, will a stronger storm pull it more east or more northerly?

I think its going NNE regardless, and then turning northeast. steering flow too uniform

Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions Alyono! NHC didn't seem very convinced of landfall being where they have projected it. Do you believe it will stay where the projected landfall area is it more likely to shift east or west? Thank you

[caneman]

Watching water vapor loop, it appears all of the clouds are funneling northeast between apalachacola and cedar key. of course its fluid so that will likely change. Heavy rain, lightning and thunder at Clearwater beach now

[arlwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Although clusters of deep convection continue to pulsate near
and to the southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone, there
has been little overall change in organization overnight. A couple
of ASCAT passes since the previous advisory revealed peak winds of
30 kt, so the system remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this
advisory. The upper-level outflow has expanded to the northwest
and north of the cyclone, which suggests that the upper-level wind
pattern is becoming more favorable for strengthening. The SHIPS
model indicates that the shear should remain low during the next day
or so, while the cyclone moves over warm water. This should allow
for strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for steady
intensification during the next day or so, which is also supported
by the global models. The updated intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The depresssion has been meandering overnight, but is expected to
begin a northward or northeastward motion later today. A deepening
trough over the southeastern United States should cause the
tropical cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward
by tonight. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, the model envelope has shifted slightly westward this
cycle, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that
direction.

The new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm
Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast. The Hurricane
Watch remains in effect since there is still a possibility that
the system could become a hurricane before landfall. It is important
not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among
other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the
coast well to the east and south of the path of the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 24.5N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 25.4N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.9N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 30.3N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/0600Z 34.2N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 04/0600Z 37.0N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cdavis6287]

Watching water vapor loop, it appears all of the clouds are funneling northeast between apalachacola and cedar key. of course its fluid so that will likely change. Heavy rain, lightning and thunder at Clearwater beach now

Would that have an impact on its path? Kinda curious if NHC believes it is going to possibly go more east than the current projection. They didn't sound to sure in the last forecast discussion.

[caneman]

Watching the current water vapor if the dynamics stayed the same it looks on the eastern side of the cone but they seem spot on. Of course, that could change a bit in 24 hours. Wait and see.

[Laser30033003]

I have a feeling that it's going to go south of the Big Bend area......just a feeling.....

[mph101]

Typical slop of the past decade. It really doesn't matter where the COC is all the weather is going to be east and southeast of the sheared mess. Its been pouring here with thunder for the past 3 hrs (Pinellas Point area Florida). Watching these systems the past few years I am inclined to believe that someone is messing with these storms to disrupt them. There is no way that this ragged system couldn't get its act together in as many days at some point as this thing been lingering in the basin unless someone is experimenting with seeding or some other weather control. Notice that Fish storm Gaston was able several times to get its act together but over the past several years no matter what above weather patterns happen there have been nothing near the coast. I also bring into example TD8 which pulsed up and looked very healthy then 3 hrs later it was trashed.

[Alyono]

Alyono, will a stronger storm pull it more east or more northerly?

I think its going NNE regardless, and then turning northeast. steering flow too uniform

Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions Alyono! NHC didn't seem very convinced of landfall being where they have projected it. Do you believe it will stay where the projected landfall area is it more likely to shift east or west? Thank you

I dont see it west of Panama City nor do I see it east of Cedar Key based upon an ensemble PDF product I created

[Blinhart]

I see it making landfall West of Pensacola.

[Laser30033003]

My guess is Cedar Key

[hurricaneCW]

Typical slop of the past decade. It really doesn't matter where the COC is all the weather is going to be east and southeast of the sheared mess. Its been pouring here with thunder for the past 3 hrs (Pinellas Point area Florida). Watching these systems the past few years I am inclined to believe that someone is messing with these storms to disrupt them. There is no way that this ragged system couldn't get its act together in as many days at some point as this thing been lingering in the basin unless someone is experimenting with seeding or some other weather control. Notice that Fish storm Gaston was able several times to get its act together but over the past several years no matter what above weather patterns happen there have been nothing near the coast. I also bring into example TD8 which pulsed up and looked very healthy then 3 hrs later it was trashed.

Yes it's a shame we can't get a major to slam the coast and ruin millions of lives.

[northjaxpro]

My guess is Cedar Key

I am thinking just north of there in Dixie County for the projected landfall.

[tigerz3030]

Good morning NorthJax, I will help monitor St Augustine and WGV area where I live. I have made the decision to get supplies today just in case like flashlights and batteries for sure. Looks pretty good now that the cone is set with minor wobbles. Intensity is one thing no one is sure of but I'm thinking cat 1 or very close at landfall.

Everyone be safe the next 48-60 hours!

[NDG]

What happened to the recon this morning? When is the next one?

[JKingTampa]

Flood Watch issued for Pinellas for 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts and sounds like atomic bombs going off right now. The whole house is awake. Lol.

[mph101]

[/quote]Yes it's a shame we can't get a major to slam the coast and ruin millions of lives.[/quote]

Hey you are speculating as to what I said and meant and trust me I didn't mean that is what I wanted. My first big blow was Elana but even worse was Hugo and I was ground zero. Unlike you I am in a area that I have all to loose and I cried when my best bud in Homestead lost everything along with others in Andrew

[NDG]

The way I see it is that the longer it takes for this system to get moving the more of a westerly track it will take. I was looking at the sypnotic set up last night that Elena '85 had, up this point it was very similar, a short wave trough dove towards the eastern US creating a weakness in the ridge over the SE US which made it turn NE towards the bid bend of FL,the short wave trough lifted and left her behind meantime a mid level ridge moved from the lower plains into the southern US.
With TD 9 there will not be that strong of a ridge across the southern US to move in from the lower plains, a strong Atlantic ridge is moving in from the east slowly which will force TD 9 to move north and eventually NE, I don't see that sharp of a turn to the right as earlier forecasted, I see a landfall from Apalachicola to the west to Taylor County at the most to the east.