Ivan Advisories

[lilbump3000]

Well tonight i will be waiting. If it hasnt happened tonight then forget about it. This turn could make a difference in this system making landfall in flordia or not. If it doesnt happen in the next 12-24 hours, well really in less time then that, florida will be ok as far as a direct hit. If it makes that turn tonight well then florida look out.

[PTrackerLA]

The threat to LA/MS has greatly increased over the weekend and I'm really starting to get concerned. Bottom line is everyone from Texas to the Panhandle needs to keep their guard up!

[AdvAutoBob]

I think after our Charley adventure, many of us are more apprehensive then we might otherwise be. I'm not about to take me eyes off of Ivan until he's well past me!

I'm with you, Cape... I'll relax about Ivan sometime on Monday... the 20th

[roostercogburn]

Well if you are that worried take hope in that the majority of models and opinion here and elsewhere take this thing a long way from us. Of course but anything could happen, though it is looking less likely.

[cycloneye]

Today Ivan didn't moved NW 310 degrees but instead it moved between 285-290 more west than north and if this motion continues my opinion is that the Yucatan Penninsula may have to have at least a hurricane watch.

I live in Cozumel (Eastern Coast of the Yucatan Penninsula) and since yesterday there have been public warnings on the radio for the people in Cancun, Cozumel and the Mayan Riviera to take the approrpiate precautions. Also, the boats that cross from the mainland to the Island have left since last night, so besides airplanes the Island is without sea communications. All boaters have placed their boats in safer areas. The day is really sunny (as usual) 31ºC and some wind from the North. The local authorities have mentioned we should be expecting storms, high winds (most certainly with higher gusts) probably thunder. All this sometime between today and tomorrow.

Thank you so much for that information that shows that the authorities there haved been warning the people

[BigO]

If you live close to 90W, this is getting nerve-wracking.

[PurdueWx80]

This discussion must've been written several hours ago when the trough was still digging. It has since completely halted any southern component in motion - and in fact has even slightly retreated over the last few frames of the US water vapor loop....must be running into the GOM ridge.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=multiple&itype=wv

[Lindaloo]

Rainband, if you enjoy the adrenaline rush of a hurricane that is cool. Admit it though. From reading your posts I just get the feeling that you are clinging to any news that this beast may turn our way.

Wrong answer. I assure you that he is not clinging to the fact of wanting one to come to his area!


Rainband, even though I am on the MS Gulf Coast, I am praying for you and everyone's safety along the west coast of Florida.

[stormchazer]

I am near Tampa so that is obviously my concern. Hard to imagine that Ivan has not crossed the 82.32 N line that Tampa is sitting on.

[AdvAutoBob]

Worst case: could this put the FL peninsula back into play? Thanks,

In my opinion (my own, mind you), the peninsula has yet to be taken OUT of play... note: this is not -removed- of any sort.

[lookout]

No one in this thread SAID it was coming to them in New Orleans!! They are all discussing the what if if one as strong as Ivan comes there. You are mighty bold to even imply that it won't go to NO. NO ONE along the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. But yet, you basically say it is going to a certain area! That IMO is also jumping to conclusions.

And it is your opinion on the doom and gloom.

reread what i said, discussing the "what if" possibilities of it striking new orleans is indeed giving the impression that it could hit new orleans. now a lot of us know this is NOT saying it will but there easily could be confusion to other people who might think otherwise. of course there is no absolute certainty that it wont but the chances are very small. And it is NOT jumping to conclusions if sound reasoning and synoptic forecasting are used along with a reasonable interpretation of the models to say that there is very little chance of it hitting new orleans. by your reasoning the NHC is jumping to conclusions by showing a landfall in the florida panhandle because they say its going to a certain area. no sense in being so defensive about it, i just dont see the need for unnecessary worry. like i said, just my 2 cents.

btw, i think there is a definate possibility of a strike as far west as mobile. folks in mobile really need to be paying attention.

[Cuzam]

Today Ivan didn't moved NW 310 degrees but instead it moved between 285-290 more west than north and if this motion continues my opinion is that the Yucatan Penninsula may have to have at least a hurricane watch.

I live in Cozumel (Eastern Coast of the Yucatan Penninsula) and since yesterday there have been public warnings on the radio for the people in Cancun, Cozumel and the Mayan Riviera to take the approrpiate precautions. Also, the boats that cross from the mainland to the Island have left since last night, so besides airplanes the Island is without sea communications. All boaters have placed their boats in safer areas. The day is really sunny (as usual) 31ºC and some wind from the North. The local authorities have mentioned we should be expecting storms, high winds (most certainly with higher gusts) probably thunder. All this sometime between today and tomorrow.

Thank you so much for that information that shows that the authorities there haved been warning the people

I'll try to keep you guys posted; however, please do not expect me to give technical explanations since I am not professional met as most of you are.

[cycloneye]

This discussion must've been written several hours ago when the trough was still digging. It has since completely halted any southern component in motion - and in fact has even slightly retreated over the last few frames of the US water vapor loop....must be running into the GOM ridge.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=multiple&itype=wv

Rhome wrote it.

[HurricaneQueen]

I believe that they are warning the Eastern Gulf Coast now because once it gets into the Gulf that is the area that has the potential for the first brush with Ivan. We are forecast to have heavy rain and wind even though the forecast track keeps it well offshore. Once the direction is more definite there should be plenty of time to give the same advice to the central GC and northern FL. This is just my opinion based on logic and no special knowledge of meteorological phenomena.

Lynn

[cycloneye]

Dont worrie about technnical things only go ahead .

[Rainband]

Thanks Lindaloo. Same to you Ivan could wind up anywhere I just hope my moms place will be ok if it passes close enough for TS winds and or Tornadoes

[PurdueWx80]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 121806
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1806Z
B. 19 DEG 04 MIN N
   82 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2391 M
D. 080 KT
E. 136 DEG 041 NM
F. 230 DEG 114 KT
G. 137 DEG 025 NM
H. 920 MB
I. 9 C/ 3061 M
J. 16 C/ 3054 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 20
   MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.

[HurricaneQueen]

Cycloneye:

What does that mean?: Rhome wrote it (is he good or bad in his analysis in general?)

Thanks,
Lynn

[sea oat]

Code: Select all

DISCUSSION...

THIS EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW HURRICANE IVAN TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWARD TODAY WITH THE POWERFUL HURRICANE REACHING THE SE
GLFMEX IN 24-36 HOURS.

I don't think the panhandle of Florida is in the SE GOM...

Everyone needs to watch this thing!

[dhweather]

One thing is for sure, they have been consistantly been right of
the actual path.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IV ... hics.shtml