Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the model guidance runs continue to trend colder each time I see them. The GFS model, which I like to follow during arctic outbreaks in winter, is also trending colder with each run. So, next week looks to be potentially a very significant arctic air intrusion over the peninsula. It will be interesting to monitor next week.

[dizzyfish]

Something is wacky! Glad I'm not up in Brooksville right now.



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[JonathanBelles]

5 of the next 7 days are now forecast to be below freezing in Tallahassee. Teens are possible on December 7th-8th (with a 20% chance of precip I might add).

The low this morning was 29...coolest this season so far. No frost to speak of last night, but the possibility is higher tonight. May go a degree or two colder tonight.

HERE COMES WINTER!!! YEEHAW!!

[NDG]

Next week looks interesting for the sunshine state (cold-wise). A freeze extending down into the big cities of central Florida seems very possible. In fact, the 12z GFS text output is showing 28F in Orlando for two mornings in a row (next Wednesday and Thursday)! Such cold temperatures are rare to get down there at any time of the year, let alone the first 10 days of December.

Here is an image from the 12z GFS showing how far south the freeze line is at hour 168:
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... 168l-1.gif

I don't know about upper 20s like the raw gfs numbers are showing for the Orlando area next week, low to mid 30s look more possible to me, it just seems like that the perfect radiational cooling set up will not take place with winds staying up for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with the High Pressure center not over us for those mornings, plus a disturbance will be approaching from the NW Tuesday night so there might even be some cloud cover Wednesday morning.

[dizzyfish]

We had frost this morning. 30* when I left home at 5:30.

[NDG]

We had frost this morning. 30* when I left home at 5:30.

It always amazes me how cold areas just north of Tampa get, somehow the cold air likes to drain down from the upper section of the peninsula down I-75.
While I am a good 45 miles inland from the east coast I only got down to 41 degs.

[northjaxpro]

Got down to 29.4 degrees here at my home location this morning with heavy frost. We will have a brief moderation in temps today and Saturday, then folks the refrigerator door will be wide open beginning Sunday through next week. The arctic express will be heading southbound for the peninsula and we will be likely exeriencing hard freezes several mornings this upcoming week across North Florida. For my fellow S2Kers down state, it looks like freezing temps may reach down as far south to interior South Central peninsula to Lake Okeechobee. A very cold week coming for sure.

[thetruesms]

5 of the next 7 days are now forecast to be below freezing in Tallahassee. Teens are possible on December 7th-8th (with a 20% chance of precip I might add).

The low this morning was 29...coolest this season so far. No frost to speak of last night, but the possibility is higher tonight. May go a degree or two colder tonight.

HERE COMES WINTER!!! YEEHAW!!

I was going to ask why you thought temps would be a degree or two cooler tonight, and then I reminded myself to look at the timestamp of the post I actually had more frost on my car yesterday morning than this morning.

We had frost this morning. 30* when I left home at 5:30.

It always amazes me how cold areas just north of Tampa get, somehow the cold air likes to drain down from the upper section of the peninsula down I-75.
While I am a good 45 miles inland from the east coast I only got down to 41 degs.

I've noticed that there is cold air drainage down the western side of the peninsula as well. My initial thought was that the slight ridge that runs up the spine of the peninsula, and in this area in the vicinity of I-75, helped create a drainage channel that might pump some cooler air down. Now, that ridge is not a particularly big feature, so I wouldn't say I'm particularly certain of this idea at all. If I were back in school, I think it might make an interesting project for a mesoscale class though.

[psyclone]

I've never gotten a good explanation as to why it gets so darn cold down the western side of the peninsula north of tampa bay...and the discrepancies are simply stunning, especially in radiation cold events. when we get meaningful cold snaps this year keep your eye on brooksville as it often gives the state cold spots like TLH and crestview a run for their money...an amazing feat considering BKV at about the same latitude as Orlando! interior citrus and hernando county routinely record eye popping temps during cold snaps...far colder than you would expect for that latitude. the cold often sneaks (in a diluted form) down into eastern pasco and hillsbrough counties as well with places like Brandon and Plant city frequently reporting colder temps than areas just to their east or west. I'm not sure why this is but my best guess is that in general, the soil composition is sandy with fewer heat releasing water features and a lower (and also heat releasing) population than areas farther east. so, it's just an ideal evironment to maintain cold air as it slides south from the suwannee valley.

[psyclone]

the projected low next tuesday night in brooksville is 21 per the nws. if you go straight east to western orange county around apopka it is around 30 to 32. driving west on route 50 or north on us 19 from the tampa bay region, one can see the climate zone change just by observing the vegetation. it is very abrupt. on another note it looks like this could be a pretty significant early season freeze event which should produce plenty of flash fuels over the interior of the peninsula.

[frigidice77]

Didnt Joe.B. mention in his winter outlook that winter would get off to a fast start in the east?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Didnt Joe.B. mention in his winter outlook that winter would get off to a fast start in the east?

Yes, he has been saying for a while now that he thinks December would be a cold month; especially in the east. He also is currently predicting that 50%+ of the U.S. will experience a white christmas this year..possibly even rivaling the 63% that was experienced last year. The turn around should come by January into February though, when he is expecting much warmer weather to take hold.

[frigidice77]

I hope he is wrong about the much warmer weather but its likely because this is a la nina year and a strong one. Florida is gonna experience some extreme cold this week.

[AdamFirst]

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 57. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming northwest between 5 and 10 mph.


Bring it on.

[Aquawind]

Anticipating the passage of the fine line..

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Do you think the week starting 12/25 is warmer in Miami or the Keys, and by how much? Does that Arctic Air every include either area?

We need some Thanks.

Well, I found this at NOAA from 12/1/10 regarding the Arctic Air and the Keys, so I am assuming the answer is yes.


000
FXUS62 KKEY 020232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
932 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND
ARE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.
WINDS ACROSS THE C-MAN STATIONS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. PWAT VALUES FROM TONIGHTS 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED 1.30
INCHES AND THIS VALUE IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW AN INCH BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR ZERO. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6O TO 65 IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE UPPER KEYS. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S.

[northjaxpro]

Just checked the thermometer and I have 29.6 degrees at 6:15 a.m. Winds are blowing at around 10 mph currently with wind chill around 20 degrees. The Arctic express is coming in full force through most of this week. Hard freezes expected for the next three mornings with minimun temps here in north Jax expected to be in the lower 20s and max temps struggling to get to 50 degrees through Wednesday. This arctic outbreak may very well break records throughout the peninsula. Looks like minimum temperstures will get to or slightly below freezing all the way down to arera in the interior South Central peninsula to near Lake Okeechobee, especially during the Tuesday-Thursday period. Brrr!!!!!

[dizzyfish]

Oh DARN - it was cold in that wind this morning!

Today: Sunny, with a high near 54. Wind chill values as low as 36 early. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

High? 54? - should not be used in the same sentence. LOL

[northjaxpro]

The low temp bottomed out at 27.4 degrees at my home location in North Jax this morning.

[summersquall]

000
FPUS72 KMLB 061130
NOWMLB

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-061400-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
630 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

.NOW...

...EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS...

THIS MORNING...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 MPH
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING UNTIL
THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO MIX AND WARM THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE WELL ADVISED OF THE COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY. BE SURE TO WEAR JACKETS...
HATS...AND CLOSED SHOES TO KEEP WARM.

ALSO...A FREEZE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

DWS