Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

With the majority of the storm over for Texas here are some official stats. Sleet is officially counted in the snow category.

CLL: Data is missing for snowfall but it's likely trace
Total QPF: 0.05 inches

IAH (Houston Bush)

Yesterday's snowfall: Trace
Today's snowfall: Trace (likely a record)
Total QPF: 0.05 inches (yesterday and today)

Austin

Yesterday's snowfall: Trace
Today's snowfall: Trace, record is 0.31 (2001)
Total QPF: 0.05 inches (yesterday and today)

So overall the dry runs verified well as stats are kept

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: 57 was referring to you misspelling "players" as "pliers". Hence the "hand tool" comment.

Wow I just now saw that. Thanks

[cperez291]

Not quiet over deep south Texas harlingen is about to get in the action with some sleet and snow we have a winter weather advisory going on

[Ntxw]

As of today the -EPO is approaching -2SD's (daily values) and the WPO has begun it's trek downwards and is well in negative territory. There is a well advertised Aleutian ridge that will park into Alaska. This feature, omega block, will likely send our -EPO into the 3-4 SD's below normal similar to that of early December so expect a similar cold snap to bleed down the rockies next week.

Likewise the PNA is rapidly falling and will approach negative sending the Polar jet down from Canada/Alaska into the southern rockies and southern plains. A couple of big storms will come out of this configuration. There is good tropical connection to the WPAC which leads one to believe some potentially powerful systems to eject out from Texas and either cut into the Lakes or move towards the Apps. +NAO will signal ridging to the east coast thus there will be a battle between cold and warm air to the east of us likely fueling these systems.



Meanwhile the MJO is getting another burst feeding a semi subtropical jet. As I've told gpsnowman this morning, going through analogs and maps of past years one year stuck out. Will we see cold like that? Probably not but it is noteworthy to mention with that incredible warm pool in the NEPAC resembling it so well.




Get your rest the rest of this week, lots of model watching and late night crunching to do. There is nothing wxman57 can do to stop what is coming! No repeat of 1986. I have decided to take control of his weather machine for good, until spring.

[Rgv20]

Meanwhile the MJO is getting another burst feeding a semi subtropical jet. As I've told gpsnowman this morning, going through analogs and maps of past years one year stuck out. Will we see cold like that? Probably not but it is noteworthy to mention with that incredible warm pool in the NEPAC resembling it so well.

What year might that be? 1*99?

P.S: Yes, I intentionally censored the Date!

[WeatherGuesser]

'learnt' must be Texan for 'learned'.

[Ntxw]

Here is the 18z GFS at 5h for early/mid next week. The OP's all have this big low heights storm, they vary on location run to run and depth of cold air going back and forth. But this is a set up for a blizzard underneath the trowel heading(winds 30-40mph) for negative tilt and likely severe thunderstorms on the other side.

[TheProfessor]

'learnt' must be Texan for 'learned'.

Actually I looked that up and learnt was the proper way to phrase what I said.

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw, where is DFW sitting in terms of days with lows at or below freezing?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, where is DFW sitting in terms of days with lows at or below freezing?

As of today 37, tomorrow will be 38. Then we will need 10 more (I believe we will) to crack 48 and be guaranteed top 10 finish.

[veedub63]

'learnt' must be Texan for 'learned'.

Actually I looked that up and learnt was the proper way to phrase what I said.

Very nicely done young man. Refreshing to see young folks actually caring about communication skills. Bravo!

[Ntxw]

CPC is ramping up for it, look familiar? Remember December?





Speaking of the CPC they predicted a warm FMA for Texas. And now to kick it off they are doing this to February. It's just disgusting and wreckless. We certainly don't pay them to do this after what happened and STILL ongoing. They have countless tools of teleconnections, models, and otherwise yet this???

[Janie2006]

[off-topic] Actually "learnt" is British English, whilst a lot of Americans use "learned". Another example of two peoples separated by a common language. Back to snow and whatever. [/off-topic]

[orangeblood]

With the majority of the storm over for Texas here are some official stats. Sleet is officially counted in the snow category.

CLL: Data is missing for snowfall but it's likely trace
Total QPF: 0.05 inches

IAH (Houston Bush)

Yesterday's snowfall: Trace
Today's snowfall: Trace (likely a record)
Total QPF: 0.05 inches (yesterday and today)

Austin

Yesterday's snowfall: Trace
Today's snowfall: Trace, record is 0.31 (2001)
Total QPF: 0.05 inches (yesterday and today)

So overall the dry runs verified well as stats are kept

Good work Ntxw, once again it needs to be noted that the GFS is out performing all models, particularly within the 5 day verification range. NAM has been atrocious!!

[Ntxw]

Good work Ntxw, once again it needs to be noted that the GFS is out performing all models, particularly within the 5 day verification range. NAM has been atrocious!!

Yes the NAM is having a bad year, although it's doing ok on temperatures just not precip. I heard it was getting an upgrade of some kind soon? Until then we can throw it in the do not trust column with NOAA's monthly and seasonal predictions. We're guaranteed a cold spring at the rate they are going.

Edit: We have to give euro some credit too because it wasn't as wet as the other models for most of it's runs having up to 0.10inches but never going over.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

sigh I should have picked this one earlier....


Now I really did expect Tireman4 to upload a picture of one he or his kids made (in fact I would've thought all of you would've made one given your child-like excitement over the thought of snow).

I still can't get over how a little bit of sleet/ice rain/snow can shut your cities down re the power I was referring to earlier (but I have seen enough pics on my FB feed to know why it is done).

[Ntxw]

I love what I'm seeing from the 0z GFS. It isn't quite there yet but it's getting colder each run with a heck of a lot of qpf in the Red River Valley/Oklahoma/Arkansas region. Hook the precip with the temps a little more and pops goes the weasel. With incoming 1050+ HP (there it is again) it's only going to trend colder and more south. Love it love it, pattern is ripe.

[weatherguy425]

Just one run, but models continuing to trend deeper with our weekend system, the system that ntxw mentioned earlier today. We'll have to keep an eye on this one.



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Edit: Figures, he beat me to it!

[Rgv20]

Special 06z Balloon being released..


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1020 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH PRECIP TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS INFLUENCE FROM 850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST COME TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WE WILL LOSE
SOME PRECIP TO DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING SLEET.

A SPECIAL 06Z BALLOON WILL BE RELEASED WITHIN THE HOUR THAT WILL
PROVIDE CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE DATA. IF THAT INFORMATION
SHOWS A COLDER THAN EXPECTED PROFILE...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
SLEET /MAY/ BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER VALLEY...BASED ON PRECIP TRENDS. /68-JGG/


Latest Saved Radar Loop..

[gpsnowman]

So basically next week is a race between cold and moisture? Our old friend Steve Mccauley mentioned on FB that the storm could end with some snow. Take a guess at which one I want to make it first.