ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cheezyWXguy]

So any chance she'd miss that end of Cuba at this point?

likely wont miss it, but will likely only spend about 2-3 hours at most over this.

[hiflyer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.AVIATION...AS TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE W THRU THE
CARIB A DEEP EASTERLY WIND OVER S FLA BRINGING ISOLD SHRA THRU
ATLC WATERS. ALL E COAST TERMINALS VFR THRU 14Z WITH NO VCSH
BUT MAY HAVE TO QUICKY AMD IF SHRA APPROACHES KTMB...KMIA OR
KOPF AS SPIRAL BANDING BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SE.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would place the LLC near 19.7 north/77.3 west. It is I believe moving at near 275-280 degree's...It will likely make a short landfall on the end of that jet of land.

[KWT]

Still looks a little messy right now, convection is still fairly deep in places but it doesn't look organised right now IMO, just a little messy. Despite that its hard not to believe that this won't strengthen over the warm waters near Cuba in the next 24hrs.

[coreyl]

What direction does it seem to be moving in?

[Normandy]

Hey folks, thought I'd share my thoughts on Fay.
First and foremost, Fay looks great right now. It has explosive convection that is developing over the center, and it appears any land interaction will not be a factor (Once it clears that tip of Cuba it will be over a nice area of water). The fact that it is developing so quickly is startling IMO, I didn't really expect deepening until tomorrow. Looking at Fay, it has an IMPRESSIVE outflow pattern and multiple jets. An ULL directly to its west is aiding this as well. Check out the shear maps....perfect conditions.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Upper level anticyclone over Fay is quite impressive. Trackwise it looks like its on course par with the NHC track...maybe a hair south but its negligible. I am starting to believe Fay will become a hurricane before making another landfall in Cuba.

[KWT]

I think thats quite possible Normandy, the upper level conditions really are great for strengthening.

I think we should be looked for an inner core to start forming soon once its cleared land again, though I think the closeness to land may slightly limit exactly how strong this can get however the set-up aloft easily allows RI to occur...

The same is true in the Se gulf, conditions aloft look probably as good as they did when Charley did its RI IMO.

Offical track movement in WNW but its wobbling about on that mean track.

[Normandy]

Another worrisome thing...what recon is finding.

During the last set of observations, the plane found a very broad area of 1006-1007 mb, with the lowest pressure found around 19.1 N, which is still a nice bit off the coast of Cuba. Radar seemingly shows an LLC making landfall on the southern tip, but I would not be surprised to see the LLC be drawn into the area with lowest pressure which is further south. Regardless, Fay is for sure deepening.

[KWT]

Mind you to be fair Normandy ther eis also another region down to about 1006.5 where the center looks to be according to radar, between 19.4-19.7, lowest winds were around 19.4 however but the center could be anywhere in that region, radar shows this is trying to wrap round somewhat and develop an inner core. As you say Fay is deepening right now...

[Normandy]

Of course, my point is that Recon shows a very broad center with a large area of consistently low pressure, not a sharp gradient centered around a single small area of low pressure.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 170827
AF307 1206A FAY HDOB 39 20080817
081800 1843N 07828W 8431 01546 0072 +170 +150 269007 007 022 000 00
081830 1843N 07826W 8434 01544 0071 +169 +150 272007 008 022 001 00
081900 1843N 07824W 8431 01546 0069 +170 +150 270008 008 023 000 00
081930 1843N 07822W 8432 01545 0068 +170 +150 260009 009 023 000 00
082000 1843N 07820W 8431 01544 0068 +170 +150 256011 012 021 000 00
082030 1843N 07819W 8432 01543 0068 +170 +150 260013 013 022 000 00
082100 1843N 07817W 8431 01545 0068 +172 +150 258013 013 021 000 03
082130 1844N 07815W 8434 01543 0069 +171 +150 253013 014 022 000 00
082200 1844N 07813W 8431 01546 0069 +170 +150 253013 013 019 001 00
082230 1844N 07811W 8434 01541 0070 +170 +150 256013 014 019 001 00
082300 1845N 07809W 8435 01541 0070 +170 +150 254012 013 022 000 00
082330 1845N 07808W 8432 01541 0070 +165 +150 250011 011 020 001 00
082400 1845N 07806W 8434 01540 0068 +165 +150 251012 012 023 000 00
082430 1846N 07804W 8433 01542 0068 +167 +150 251013 013 021 001 03
082500 1846N 07802W 8432 01541 0067 +169 +150 254014 015 022 001 00
082530 1846N 07800W 8429 01543 0067 +170 +150 259015 016 024 000 00
082600 1846N 07759W 8435 01538 0069 +170 +150 258016 016 023 000 00
082630 1846N 07757W 8430 01548 0070 +170 +150 255016 017 024 000 00
082700 1846N 07755W 8435 01540 0070 +170 +150 253016 017 024 001 00
082730 1846N 07753W 8432 01544 0071 +170 +150 256018 018 023 000 00
$$

[KWT]

Well that would bode well for less rapid strengthening, as a broad low isn't going to spin up quite as rapidly as a larger one, however I think the LLC will tighten quite neatly before its 2nd Cuban landfall.

[Thunder44]

Important part of 5am NHC discussion, this morning:

FAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

Hurricane Watches have just been issued for parts of South FL and the Keys

[deltadog03]

Good call...The low looks very broad. I think the cuban radar is a bit misleading. I can see some turn well SW of that point. I think the fact is, this is still very broad.

[jinftl]

Looking more and more like a peninsula event for florida....fay may very well follow in the footsteps of her hopefully much bigger and badder older brother charley.... in terms of landfall area...

[johngaltfla]

I think the 2300 forecast tonight will either trigger too many people relaxing or one huge wave of panic down here. The folks remember Charlie all too well and if Fay gets her act together today, I know I'm going to board up after the 1100 forecast on Monday.

[ftolmsteen]

I think this is the first time I've seen Cuba get some deep Red convection over the island. Fay must be able to vent itself on the north side of the storm? Away enough from the mountains I take it? (at least DR's anyway)

I think the 2300 forecast tonight will either trigger too many people relaxing or one huge wave of panic down here. The folks remember Charlie all too well and if Fay gets her act together today, I know I'm going to board up after the 1100 forecast on Monday.

Yeah, but I think this'll work both ways. Down where you're at, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, especially Punta Gorda will not hesitate to get ready. But I have a feeling Tampa/northward might be more skeptical of the forecast track due to the whole Charlie event. You know... how they kept saying "Tampa Bay!".... "Tampa Bay!"... "This is their big one!", but then on the final day it shifted northeast to Punta Gorda.

I think some people will remember that and use this as crying wolf up here. We'll see soon enough I suppose.

[jinftl]

Waking up to a hurricane watch on the sw coast of fl probably won't induce relaxation....and based on how things look, that watch has only one place to go at 11am....north towards tampa

I think the 2300 forecast tonight will either trigger too many people relaxing or one huge wave of panic down here. The folks remember Charlie all too well and if Fay gets her act together today, I know I'm going to board up after the 1100 forecast on Monday.

[Nimbus]

Pico Tuquino the highest point in Cuba probably is not helping the circulation much but i'm still expecting Fay to stay out over the water south of Granma.

[deltadog03]

093400 1923N 07753W 8435 01539 0071 +157 +150 262008 009 024 000 00
093430 1923N 07754W 8432 01540 0071 +157 +150 272008 009 024 000 00


Somewhere up there?? Wind shift up there..