Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

continues to rain over south florida

Wow, wonder if that line just west of Key West is going to make it to the mainland in any capacity.

I hear thunder right now.

[gatorcane]

Summer-time-like POPs developing today across se Florida with sw wind flow. Highs in the mid 80s. Before we know it, we will see the usual summer-time storms each and every day here.

[psyclone]

some pretty nasty thunderstorms are moving onshore north of the bay in citrus and hernando counties

[dizzyfish]

Not again!

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29. North northwest wind between 5 and 11 mph.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=108

[psyclone]

looks like another heavy rain/severe threat late tuesday into early wednesday over the peninsula. slight risk for tuesday with rather bullish qpf estimates. could very well see a good squall line barrel in off the gulf and sweep across the peninsula tomorrow evening. interesting times ahead for sure.

[AdamFirst]

Yeah, looks to be a nasty Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. They've upped the rain chances for Wednesday here since it looks like tons of leftover precip after the initial squall line of death moves through.

[NDG]

Wow, I drove through Port St Lucie area yesterday on the turnpike, coconut palm trees really got hit hard in that area this year, there were many completely brown, at least in the area of the turnpike.

[AdamFirst]

Wow, I drove through Port St Lucie area yesterday on the turnpike, coconut palm trees really got hit hard in that area this year, there were many completely brown, at least in the area of the turnpike.

Yeah, vegetation all over is really nasty. Rain has them on the rebound a bit but the cold spikes are too much for any real recovery.

[Florida1118]

Severe Weather Possible Tues into Weds...

Tampa NWS:

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT WITH THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES DEEPER MOISTURE (MID AND UPPER 60S DEW
POINT AIR) WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON A DEEPENING AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS POTENT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING MOISTURE
PROFILES COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE AND
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING BOWING AND SUPERCELLS AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WATERS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE
SQUALL MOVES ONSHORE AFFECTING THE REGION. AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...RISING RIVER LEVELS...AND
THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.





Melbourne NWS:

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW IS PROGD TO ROCKET NE ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA AND SE GA AND BRING A LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH E CENTRAL
FL. STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE EXACT MODE OF
CONVECTION BUT ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AND ALSO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR / LOW
LVL HELICITY / FAVORABLE LOW TRACK AND TIME OF DAY (NIGHT) WITH
LOWER LCLS ALL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES. CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK KEEPS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL CARRY 80 PCT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT.





Miami NWS:

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE WESTERN
GULF. IN TURN...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO RISE...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULLING
OUT OF THE PLAINS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO COMMENCE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS LIGHT AS LAST NIGHT, BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL DECOUPLE IN SOME AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SOME AREAS. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND EAST COAST WHERE A 20 POP IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR TONIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL HELP ORGANIZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CERTAINLY BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER MAY SLIGHTLY
OFFSET THE AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...WITH 0-3KM AGL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 300 M/S OVER THE
LAKE REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS CERTAINLY EXISTS.
THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
LAKE. ALL OF THAT SAID, IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY FROM STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL BE
ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WITH A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF STORMS REMAIN
DISCRETE, A FEW SEVERE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD
OCCUR, WHILE A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE WOULD MAINLY RESULT IN
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH RAPID COOLING AND TEMPS FALLING TO
NEAR -10C AT H5. FINALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD MOVEMENT TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN CORRIDORS. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.

[gsytch]

Dizzyfish- The NOAA link you used to forecast has its base out of Brooksville. Unless you are far east of Little Rd and N to SR52, use the Tampa/Tarpon Springs link. I live in NPR near Gulf High School (for years) and teach in Hudson. We are MUCH warmer, as you saw in the last cold snap. Brooksville hit 29F we were 35f Sun AM. Now, tonight this front looks like a doozy, ir is it Dizzy? They called for a dry winter? So far in Jan I have 4" of rainfall, and more heavy rain tonight will up that total.........and wasn't it a "rather mild winter?"....uhm....

[gsytch]

I teach in Hudson, and the Queen Palms there are rather toasty. I mean, these are tough palms. I live in New Port Richey, about 15 mi SW near the coast, and mine are perfectly fine. Talk about microclimates. My Plant Manager on my campus said during the Post-Xmas freeze (the coldest one) it was 23f there for 3 hours! I had 29f, on two nights, with heavy frost and some of my bromeliads are rather toasty. Where is that milder winter?

[dizzyfish]

Dizzyfish- The NOAA link you used to forecast has its base out of Brooksville. Unless you are far east of Little Rd and N to SR52, use the Tampa/Tarpon Springs link. I live in NPR near Gulf High School (for years) and teach in Hudson. We are MUCH warmer, as you saw in the last cold snap. Brooksville hit 29F we were 35f Sun AM. Now, tonight this front looks like a doozy, ir is it Dizzy? They called for a dry winter? So far in Jan I have 4" of rainfall, and more heavy rain tonight will up that total.........and wasn't it a "rather mild winter?"....uhm....

You are lucky! We live in one of the colder spots and our temps are lots closer to what they call for in B'ville than the Tampa/Tarpon area.

[AdamFirst]

Tornado probabilities


Severe wind probabilities

[HURAKAN]

impressive precipitation

[AdamFirst]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

TORNADO WATCH 7 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-007-009-017-019-027-035-041-049-053-055-057-061-069-075-
081-083-085-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-115-117-119-125-
127-260200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0007.110125T1910Z-110126T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BRADFORD BREVARD
CITRUS CLAY DESOTO
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEVY
MANATEE MARION MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM SARASOTA SEMINOLE
ST. JOHNS ST. LUCIE SUMTER
UNION VOLUSIA

[dizzyfish]

Oh yeah - got some nasties headed my way. Hunkered down in the safe room with the pups. Called hubby and told him to stay put (at work) until it passes.

[northjaxpro]

Currently under a Tornado warning here in parts of Eastern Duval county. I just saw pea sized hail in very heavy storm here at my place of work in South Jacksonville. Nasty day for sure, but I have yet to see any damaging winds where I am at the present time.

[HURAKAN]

Currently under a Tornado warning here in parts of Eastern Duval county. I just saw pea sized hail in very heavy storm here at my place of work in South Jacksonville. Nasty day for sure, but I have yet to see any damaging winds where I am at the present time.

Thanks for the update! Stay safe!

[psyclone]

it is dark as night here and everyone is getting a free car wash.

[Florida1118]

TORNADO WARNING
FLC053-101-119-252215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.110125T2145Z-110125T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 515 PM EST

* AT 440 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MASARYKTOWN...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BROOKSVILLE.
DADE CITY NORTH.
RIDGE MANOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8253 2875 8195 2840 8195 2834 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 260DEG 38KT 2848 8229

$$

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLC109-252215-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110125T2215Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-
457 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EST FOR EASTERN
ST. JOHNS COUNTY...

AT 457 PM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTH
PONTE VEDRA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 8131 2995 8142 3006 8130 3001 8129
2997 8129 2994 8128 2990 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 226DEG 30KT 2995 8127

$$

HESS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLC083-252215-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110125T2215Z/
MARION FL-
438 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY...

AT 438 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEIRSDALE...OR NEAR
THE VILLAGES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF AND JUNIPER SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2917 8197 2931 8167 2929 8164 2905 8163
2904 8165 2896 8165 2895 8166 2896 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 229DEG 40KT 2897 8192




TORNADO WARNING
FLC057-103-252245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0004.110125T2209Z-110125T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
509 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 545 PM EST

* AT 508 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LEALMAN...OR NEAR SAINT PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LEALMAN.
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE.
TAMPA.
GIBSONTON.
RIVERVIEW.
BLOOMINGDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2789 8276 2792 8265 2788 8255 2795 8253
2804 8223 2777 8216 2774 8248 2782 8239
2789 8241 2792 8247 2782 8247 2782 8253
2787 8256 2787 8259 2778 8262 2772 8261
2772 8269 2774 8272 2771 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 263DEG 39KT 2781 8264