ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

Again, the best thing Emily has going for her is the fact she won't be doing battle with the mountains of the DR/Haiti. That's a big difference from what we all expected 24-36 hours ago. Wonder if she's not due for a "1979 David" type track after she clears the island. Looks pretty close.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1979atl.gif

Since Emily was designated a TS and looking at how over time this may evolve, I too have also mentioned that this may be a set-up similar to David in '79. The difference here is that Emily will likely miss having direct interaction with Hispaniola, opposed to David when he went directly over the rugged terrain of the island.

Another poster mentioned Cleo in '60, which traveled over Eastern Cuba and later effected South FL and up the East Coast. This may be a similar set-up like that one as well. Time will tell.

[jonj2040]

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[KWT]

Hurricane models still going quite agressive in the Bahamas, ECM no where near as agressive keeping it around the same strength...but I think the ECM has been a little on the weak side this year so far.

[Bad_Hurricane]

Lowest pressure - 1003.2 mb
Possible center at - 16.767N 70.400W?

[hipshot]

LLC is covered again by convection - some spiral banding starting to occur too. My eyes might be fooling me but the LLC seemed to jog W-NW the last hour or so.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Looks like the convection to the north did but the apparent LLC seemed to keep moving
pretty much due west.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.



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[KWT]

Looks like Emily has bought itself more time by weakening today and heading more westwards, thus probably going to avoid Hispaniola totally...

Looks like the risks extend to Cuba....

[chris_fit]

18z Tropical Models.



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That's a heck of a margin of error between the models!

[Nimbus]

The first trough looks like it may miss and that would make the current models showing a recurve kind of useless. If Emily gets stacked again fairly quickly there may be enough steering to pull her north of Cuba. Should be a fair amount of shear from the northeast in that scenario.

When your cockroach steering ridge starts to Hammer dance out over the zonal flo towards Bermuda and your storm decides to go streaking west it may be time to revisit your synoptic pattern.

[sunnyday]

If Emily does head to S Fla, isn't that supposed to happen on Saturday morning/afternoon? If TS watches are given 48 hours out, wouldn't they have to be issued tomorrow (Thursday)? My concern is that the storm doesn't get organized by then and that there won't be enough time to issue proper watches/warnings on something that may not happen until essentially the last minute. Any thoughts? Thank you for answering.

[SouthFLTropics]

I am always wary of a storm with this vigorous of a LLC. If it is able to clear the islands and hits the Gulf Stream and right environment it could possibly blow up pretty quick. The next 24 hours should be very interesting.

SFT

[caneseddy]

Hurricane models still going quite agressive in the Bahamas, ECM no where near as agressive keeping it around the same strength...but I think the ECM has been a little on the weak side this year so far.

I'm thinking the CMC has the right idea ATTM but I don't think it will get that far west, IMO

[hurricanedude]

50 degree dewpoint....thats some serious dry air in the center

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031850
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 15 20110803
184030 1601N 06938W 8442 01546 0096 +156 +092 196029 031 043 016 00
184100 1600N 06936W 8432 01556 0102 +147 +090 199029 032 041 016 00
184130 1559N 06935W 8439 01549 0097 +156 +087 203026 028 044 013 00
184200 1558N 06934W 8437 01553 0103 +147 +086 204023 024 044 014 00
184230 1556N 06933W 8435 01550 0100 +149 +085 201031 033 041 012 00
184300 1555N 06932W 8440 01547 0090 +166 +085 199026 027 044 008 00
184330 1554N 06931W 8435 01554 0101 +149 +086 184030 032 044 011 00
184400 1553N 06930W 8434 01552 0097 +154 +086 192026 028 042 009 00
184430 1552N 06928W 8440 01546 0093 +161 +085 198030 032 041 007 03
184500 1551N 06928W 8438 01557 0098 +160 +084 197032 035 /// /// 03
184530 1550N 06928W 8439 01550 0091 +168 +084 198029 031 041 004 03
184600 1549N 06930W 8433 01557 0093 +165 +083 198031 032 037 004 00
184630 1549N 06931W 8434 01554 0092 +166 +083 197029 031 034 002 00
184700 1548N 06933W 8440 01548 0089 +168 +083 195027 029 037 005 03
184730 1548N 06934W 8434 01551 0085 +171 +083 194023 025 037 020 00
184800 1548N 06936W 8440 01546 0098 +152 +082 192022 025 052 019 03
184830 1548N 06938W 8431 01557 0094 +161 +080 186025 028 040 011 00
184900 1548N 06939W 8441 01544 0102 +146 +079 185025 029 052 018 00
184930 1548N 06941W 8435 01551 0101 +149 +078 180016 019 049 015 00
185000 1548N 06943W 8445 01544 0104 +149 +077 186016 016 045 011 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Looks like the models that either just clip Haiti or hit Cuba are going to be right afterall, good call from the CMC/Nogaps...amazingly!

[Shuriken]

Note: I have never seen a storm which initially formed a clearly discernible and circular LLC in the eastern Caribbean in August also die in the central Caribbean due to decoupling.

IOW, if conditions are ideal for the formation of LLCs, then an already existent one will be a stubborn mule indeed.

part of the reason that gustav is so easy to recall is that it was so aberrant.

I don't consider Gusta to be aberrant -- it was a swirl like Charley and any number of similar WNW-moving decoupled storms which exploded once past the central Caribbean.











I think of Frederic whenever someone insists a storm will be destroyed or has no chance after passing over the big islands:




And the reigning champ, which crossed Jamaica as an open wave:

[tolakram]

I tell ya, not sure what I'm seeing. If the LLC moved up under the convection then it's a jog north, but the plane found west winds about where expected. Perhaps yet another LLC will form ... perhaps it's stair stepping up ... or perhaps it has opened up now since the inflow looks to be halting.

I dunno.

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[Kory]

The BAM models are quite interesting. They are reliable tropical models with a good performance.

[Stormcenter]

Well let's not forget that K storm that was literally nothing when it was by the Bahamas.
I'm not saying that will be the case here. JMHO

Gotta keep an eye on all of them....a little history of Andrew:

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

From TPC

Wow....amazing how that situation changed, and definitely hoping this one doesn't LOL Thanks for that....

[artist]

12z GFDL and HWRF out - same track for GFDL and slightly further east on HWRF off the FL east coast then the 06z run. Here's the 06z NOAA HWRF 3 kn run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080306-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Yikes, that'd be a messy one for the whole southeast coast, including eastern NC!!!

and it initialized too far east, from what I can tell.