ATL: IKE Discussion

[ronjon]

I think the biggest enemy of the forecast track would be a prolonged slowdown of some kind. Not saying that this is or is going to happen, but if it did, it obviously could cause shifts downstream. I notice that the trough late in the week shown by the GFS is digging fairly far south on the model, but Ike would be far west at that point. My point being that rate of speed could have bigger downstream affects than wobbles IMO.

Doc Brown, I think that is an excellent point and a slowdown would most certainly -- it seems -- encourage a more northward movement. That being said, there doesn't appear to be any atmospheric parameter that would significantly slow down Ike at all. You have a ridge ... you have a hurricane. Fairly simple.

Actually there is - the next 48 hrs will be key. The shortwave currently over the midwest is expected to weaken the ridge, turn Ike more NW, and slow him down. Depends on how much he slows, how much latitude he gains, and how long it takes the ridge to build back in. Timing is everything.

[KWT]

Based on the recon fixes this morning I would say Ike has started more of a northern trek now. Yes I know that recon fixes aren't the best for deciding motion but considering Ike only has about a 9 mile wide eye each fix is with in 9 miles of the true center so I would say its safe to at the very least get a general est. of the motion based on the center fixes.

Ike's pretty much tracking in the same direction as the NHC but is to the right of the NHC forecast. As you say recon fixes should be a decent enough measure of where Ike actually is right now.

It depends on where it moves slower, moves slower in the first 48hrs and it may well be even further south, but if it slows down later on it allows the greater chance of the ridge weakening and allowing a slightly more northerly path than suggested.

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye.

[cycloneye]

And very well organized inner core.

[Portastorm]

I think the biggest enemy of the forecast track would be a prolonged slowdown of some kind. Not saying that this is or is going to happen, but if it did, it obviously could cause shifts downstream. I notice that the trough late in the week shown by the GFS is digging fairly far south on the model, but Ike would be far west at that point. My point being that rate of speed could have bigger downstream affects than wobbles IMO.

Doc Brown, I think that is an excellent point and a slowdown would most certainly -- it seems -- encourage a more northward movement. That being said, there doesn't appear to be any atmospheric parameter that would significantly slow down Ike at all. You have a ridge ... you have a hurricane. Fairly simple.

Actually there is - the next 48 hrs will be key. The shortwave currently over the midwest is expected to weaken the ridge, turn Ike more NW, and slow him down. Depends on how much he slows, how much latitude he gains, and how long it takes the ridge to build back in. Timing is everything.

Yes, you are correct ronjon. I guess what I should have said was that based on the current predicted speed ... which the NHC has figured the slowdown into their predicted speed ... I didn't see anything that would slow down Ike further than what is anticipated. The next 48 hrs are indeed very critical. We should have a pretty good idea by tomorrow night, I would think, on where Ike will make landfall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I bet they had just gotten power back on for most of La Habana and Pinar del Rio in Cuba from Gustav, and now this.

[THead]

You guys are right, what a difference 40-50 miles makes. Miami/Ft Laud would be getting some fairly heavy, training, squalls.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

[Sabanic]

Is the thinking still that Ike will have a larger than normal windfield? If so what determines this one way or another?

[KWT]

The models Sabanic have really toned down that idea now as its only crossing smaller amounts of land compared to what was suggested before, indeed its inner core right now is very tight indeed.

Ed, yep thats really not a good thing to be happening for them, just hope the winds are indeed not quite as high as the NHC estimate in the northern quadrant, still could well get hurricane force winds there sadly.

[Meso]

He already has an extremely large looking windfield to me... Which has grown even more over the past 12 hours...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

Have a look at that loop, and you will see how it's been expanding, though it's much more noticeable if you had to look at an image from 3am and one from now

[KWT]

Very small eye.

Yep thats a very compact inner core there, may get disrupted overland to some degree again but after that its got utterly primed waters and with such a small eye feature, I'll be very surprised if this isn't a cat-4/5.

[HURAKAN]

It looks like the Keys will get the worse of the weather in South Florida, as expected, of course.

[KWT]

He already has an extremely large looking windfield to me... Which has grown even more over the past 12 hours...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

Have a look at that loop, and you will see how it's been expanding, though it's much more noticeable if you had to look at an image from 3am and one from now

The inner core is tight but the TS winds do extend a fair way out:

AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

Hurakan, yep the outer bands really do extend a long way out, some very heavy bands over the Keys now, would guess there would be some floodinmg on the keys actually.

[AZRainman]

Rather warm in that direction.
Looks like cat 4 soup to me.





http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[shah8]

the radar seems to show Ike heading at some +285 degrees for the last hour.

Wobble-watching, but fun.

[wxman57]

the radar seems to show Ike heading at some +285 degrees for the last hour.

Wobble-watching, but fun.

I measure 293 deg at 11.3 kts past hour.

3hr movement 292 deg at 9.5 kts.

[TTheriot1975]

so is that NW?

[deltadog03]

If Ike can keep current heading and a speed around 10kts for the next 24-36 hours then things would be interesting as he would then begin to slow down and depending on the ridge move more towards the west until the trof came down.

[wxman57]

so is that NW?

That's WNW. WNW starts at 282 deg and goes to 304 deg. (approx) If it stayed on the current heading and didn't take that westerly movement on Wed-Fri then landfall would be south of Victoria, TX, still.

[KWT]

TTheriot1975, thats about WNW which is what I'm measuring as well.

Looks like Ike may go right through the eddy near 90W, I agree it does look like this could become very strong, maybe thats a bit bullish but its got a tight core and when systems have tight cores in high heat content situations and low shear they tend to become 4s or 5s more often then not.