ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

9 has been significantly misaligned from its mid level center for days. That's why we keep having these blow-ups of impressive convection only to see them die again. There is no support from the surface to keep them going. Conditions should be allowing the two to stack today, but I'd caution against thinking this thing is putting on a round of quick intensification just because we see pretty strong convection. The strong convection will help fix the problem, but as of sundown last night the MLC was still well to the south of the surface one. We will see. My biggest disappointment is no recon. They should be in there already.

[Aric Dunn]

microwave images showing a large curved band that has formed. its quite likely we have deepening system right now... well on it way. still sitting right about 24 N

[RL3AO]

I actually know the director of the NHC. The decision to upgrade can be quite a bit more bureaucratic that you realize.

It's really not. It's simply the forecaster having evidence that there are 35 kt sustained winds somewhere.

And this massive convective burst could very easily be that evidence.

[GeneratorPower]

Where would it stop? It's 5 mph under a hurricane do we say let's make it a hurricane to get people's attention? Do we call Ike a cat 3 at landfall to get people's attention?

You are arguing a point that no one is making. The upgrade criteria and and will always have a subjective aspect to it. There are instances that ADT numbers have been used to upgrade systems without recon. There have been time that we have said storms were lower and stated that "we conservatively set the wind speed to x until recon can arrive to verify." I have not said anything bad about the NHC. I am stating facts of human nature. I believe the path of least regret is the make it 40mph to give it a name to raise awareness. We have done it before. Do not get over protective of people you don't even know and not understand the point being made. I actually know the director of the NHC. The decision to upgrade can be quite a bit more bureaucratic that you realize.

The fact that the NHC has tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches posted automatically triggers emergency managers and media attention. So, the fact that it is still NOW a TD is not relevant and the NHC has done the correct thing in this case. If you are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning and still have complacency then Darwin was correct

Hehe. Dreeze is right though. Human nature responds to a named storm not "Tropical Depression Nine". People are conditioned to respond when a storm has a name.

[SunnyThoughts]

Massive convective burst indeed...wonder just how large this burst can become.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is the "stall" of very very slow movement from about 9pm to 9am today anything any of the models predicted? I don't remember seeing any stall on any of them. However, there was on ethat did a jump/what appeared to be a center relocation back to the east before moving up to the ne. Could that happen if the stack finally occurs abruptly? hmm

so where is this ne turn? and when it does happen, could it be more drastic/easterly? or are those on the northern gulf in more danger with any further delays in forward motion?

hmm

[GCANE]

The "PV" from the ULL to its west seems to be dissipating somewhat.
TD9 is also forecast to pull away from it.
This will help to get it to spin up.

[tolakram]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

Well, because this is weird. It's not normal. The fact that at least two posters who've been around a while think this is unusual and questionable, well, I think it's interesting.

My puzzlement is precisely because I've watched the NHC name storms for so long. They are usually more liberal. This year has been tighter and this storm extremely tight and by the book. That's unusual.

Well from my vantage point I don't see anything unusual. This storm has had core issues from the start, there is no evidence that it's strengthening yet, the most reliable model for this storm, the GFS, shows it having issues up until landfall and the most reliable intensity model after a storm develops, the HWRF, shows a moderate tropical storm hitting the Big Bend area. It's already designated a TD, which is what it is, and tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been posted. What more can be done?

[GeneratorPower]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

9 has been significantly misaligned from its mid level center for days. That's why we keep having these blow-ups of impressive convection only to see them die again. There is no support from the surface to keep them going. Conditions should be allowing the two to stack today, but I'd caution against thinking this thing is putting on a round of quick intensification just because we see pretty strong convection. The strong convection will help fix the problem, but as of sundown last night the MLC was still well to the south of the surface one. We will see. My biggest disappointment is no recon. They should be in there already.

Definitely needs more recon. But that is actually understandable due to Hawaii threats and multiple Atlantic storms. There's only so many resources.

[caneman]

I have never seen rain like this in my entire life. Had to take my kid to school many roads flooded, a lake crested it banks and flooded the roads. Parking lots completely covered in water, yards. It's finally letting up but we just got more in 4 hours than i have ever seen!! Im,not exaggerating either. Had I not had a truck, I'm sure I would have stalled on several ocassions. FHP will need to block off some roads. Anyone have an idea how much rain just feel in those 4 hours? You guys are sitting here debating wind speed, I've lived here since 76 and been through many storms and never seen rain like this, you'd better worry more about rainfall.

[Aric Dunn]

no on recon yet ?

[StormHunter72]

I have never seen rain like this in my entire life. Had to take my kid to school many roads flooded, a lake crested it banks and flooded the roads. Parking lots completely covered in water, yards. It's finally letting up but we just got more in 4 hours than i have ever seen!! Im,not exaggerating either. Had I not had a truck, I'm sure I would have stalled on several ocassions. FHP will need to block off some roads. Anyone have an idea how much rain just feel in those 4 hours? You guys are sitting here debating wind speed, I've lived here since 76 and been through many storms and never seen rain like this, you'd better worry more about rainfall.

I agree crazy in pasco right now.

[RL3AO]

Latest storm surge inundation map. Reasonable worst case scenario shows decent coverage of 3 to 6 feet above ground.

[SunnyThoughts]

no on recon yet ?

I read somewhere where recon will be in the system around noon central, I believe.

[Aric Dunn]

notice landfall has been pushed back about 6 hours since its been stalled/re organizing.

[NDG]

I think we are finally seeing the system develop a CDO with the MLC much closer to the surface COC we might be seeing a vigorous LLC developing by the deep convection and MLC, I guess time will tell if it is finally happening or not.

[GCANE]

Latest 89GHz shows it is firing now.

I expect the core to heat up in the next 6 hrs.

[hipshot]

no on recon yet ?

I thought someone said they had some mechanical issues but now had taken off but I don't know
how to access the site to verify.

[caneman]

Based on what i saw, they should have at least put us under T.S. watches. As generator said it commands more attention. I can 100 percent assure that no one was expecting that today. Heck l track these things and wasnt expecting that in just 4 hours. Had it been named or t.s. warnings or watches maybe schools would have been closed. Looked like every kid was late to school today and it was extremely hazardous.

[ftolmsteen]

I have never seen rain like this in my entire life. Had to take my kid to school many roads flooded, a lake crested it banks and flooded the roads. Parking lots completely covered in water, yards. It's finally letting up but we just got more in 4 hours than i have ever seen!! Im,not exaggerating either. Had I not had a truck, I'm sure I would have stalled on several ocassions. FHP will need to block off some roads. Anyone have an idea how much rain just feel in those 4 hours? You guys are sitting here debating wind speed, I've lived here since 76 and been through many storms and never seen rain like this, you'd better worry more about rainfall.

I agree crazy in pasco right now.

Fox13 shows Clearwater Beach has seen over 6 inches already.