ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Incident_MET]

With the current forecast track becoming more clustered. What I notice is that Fay will have a relatively large amount of time over water to further organize and strengthen. What interaction with Cuba she has is relatively free of significant terrain...although inflow will be affected due to proximity to south coast of Cuba. Will be interesting to see how much.

[ekal]

From 5 AM.. Can someone explain why?

In the
southeastern Gulf...these winds are not expected to be as conducive
for strengthening.

Tampastorm, below is a graphic that shows the upper-level winds forecasted by the 0z GFS for 2 PM tomorrow. Notice that the anticyclone (clockwise area of winds) currently over Fay is expected to remain near Cuba as Fay continues into the SE GOM and encounters a shortwave trof. This setup may induce some southwesterly shear over Fay.

[ronjon]

First VIS shows center around 19.5N-77.8W - it appears to be moving west and looks likely now to clear the SW peninsula and be over open water south of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

The 8 AM advisory position is 20.0n-78.0w.

Thx, Luis, I must have located the MLC then. Still, it looks like the MLC and LLC are very close together - perhaps as close as they have been Fay's entire life. If they co-locate today, Fay could establish that inner core. By the way, the 20N-78W location is on the south side of the 06Z guidance that Wxman57 posted earlier.

[Vortex]

Will the ULL over western cuba clearly seen on WV imagery have an impact on Fay. It clearly more evident this morning than last night.

[tolakram]

My tracking chart. So far Fay is moving very close to the predicted track.



Forecast track from yesterday. Just a bit south of the predicted track.:



Latest forecast track:

[jinftl]

any chance fay pull an irene?

it was near havana that irene took a more NE motion than was forecast...initially there were hurricane warnings on the west coast of florida and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch on the east coast...the eye ended up cutting through dade, broward, and palm beach counties....

Not much time to post. Here's a plot of some of the best 06Z models. I removed the BAM models, experimental NOGAPS runs, and various iterations of the NAM from the plot. Tight consensus into Florida.

[jlauderdal]

By jfaul4820

[gatorcane]

All of SE FL remains in the cone so SE FL is just as much a target area as the west coast of FL. It is looking more likely a SW FL target in my opinion though....but note SE FL will be on the dirty side of the system and the SW shear expected to develop in the next 24-48 hours will blow alot of weather to the E and NE of Fay.


and...she appears to be organizing still this morning.

[StJoe]

:uarrow:

All of SE FL remains in the cone so SE FL is just as much a target area as the west coast of FL. It is looking more likely a SW FL target in my opinion though....but note SE FL will be on the dirty side of the system and the SW shear expected to develop in the next 24-48 hours will blow alot of weather to the E and NE of Fay.


and...she appears to be organizing still this morning.

Totally agree with Gatorcane...Thats where the tornadoe's come from, right???

Oh, btw Gatorcane...where in welly world are you?

[jinftl]

do you think the hurricane watch will be extended up the SE coast of FL?

:uarrow:

All of SE FL remains in the cone so SE FL is just as much a target area as the west coast of FL. It is looking more likely a SW FL target in my opinion though....but note SE FL will be on the dirty side of the system and the SW shear expected to develop in the next 24-48 hours will blow alot of weather to the E and NE of Fay.


and...she appears to be organizing still this morning.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Depending upon the exact track and how much Fay can manage to strengthen I see tropical storm watches but not hurricane watches for SE FL metro areas at this time.

The NE quadrant of the system typically is where the tornadoes may develop but tropical systems do not always spawn tornadoes so whether tornado watches are also required for Southern FL is still not clear at this time.

[Storm1]

Now they say it will not be a hurricane?
If it stays in the Gulf and hits around Tampa North It should be at least a cat 1. IMO.
The water along the coast is very very warm.
I plan on being in Cedar Key...we shall see.

http://img142.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 014he4.jpg

[ronjon]

Tolakram, just a bit south of yesterdays track, maybe 30 miles or so, allows Fay to stay over the open water south of Cuba a much longer time. It is also interesting that the Govt of Cuba extended their hurricane watches westward to encompass La Habana province - that is another hint that this storm may travel slightly south and west than thought yesterday.

[NDG]

From 5 AM.. Can someone explain why?

In the
southeastern Gulf...these winds are not expected to be as conducive
for strengthening.

Tampastorm, below is a graphic that shows the upper-level winds forecasted by the 0z GFS for 2 PM tomorrow. Notice that the anticyclone (clockwise area of winds) currently over Fay is expected to remain near Cuba as Fay continues into the SE GOM and encounters a shortwave trof. This setup may induce some southwesterly shear over Fay.

I doubt that Fay will feel much shear, relative shear that is, as Fay will be moving northward fairly much parallel to the UL winds.

[Windtalker1]

do you think the hurricane watch will be extended up the SE coast of FL?

I do, I see Fay crossing Cuba at 70mph winds, weekend to 50mph while exiting Cuba and ramping back up to an 80mph Hurricane before making landfall between Marathon and Islamorada.....then up the center of the state. Hurricane watches by 11am and Hurricane warnings by 5PM.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/

:uarrow:

All of SE FL remains in the cone so SE FL is just as much a target area as the west coast of FL. It is looking more likely a SW FL target in my opinion though....but note SE FL will be on the dirty side of the system and the SW shear expected to develop in the next 24-48 hours will blow alot of weather to the E and NE of Fay.


and...she appears to be organizing still this morning.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 8:45 AM EDT:

[gatorcane]

Does anybody have an image which depicts the topography of Cuba showing the mountain heights?

This image shows some mountain ranges depicted in the lighter shades but not sure how accurate it is:



Thx

[jinftl]

very interesting...thanks for feedback. the early response from some folks i have spoken to in se fl is that this is not much of a threat since the area is 'only' under a ts watch...it will be interesting if that changes as you describe.

do you think the hurricane watch will be extended up the SE coast of FL?

I do, I see Fay crossing Cuba at 70mph winds, weekend to 50mph while exiting Cuba and ramping back up to an 80mph Hurricane before making landfall between Marathon and Islamorada.....then up the center of the state. Hurricane watches by 11am and Hurricane warnings by 5PM.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/

:uarrow:

All of SE FL remains in the cone so SE FL is just as much a target area as the west coast of FL. It is looking more likely a SW FL target in my opinion though....but note SE FL will be on the dirty side of the system and the SW shear expected to develop in the next 24-48 hours will blow alot of weather to the E and NE of Fay.


and...she appears to be organizing still this morning.

[NDG]

Does anybody have an image which depicts the topography of Cuba showing the mountain heights?

This image shows some mountains but not sure how accurate it is:



Thx

They have a few hilly areas here and there towards the western part of the island which might reach a couple of thousand feet, but nothing as high as the mountains in the eastern section.

[cpdaman]

convection on the decline

interesting to me the shady radar shows a center still at the SW tip near mountains but NHC has it a bit to the west, one thing is sure about fay she is a mess, she always has been, and HOPEFULLY she always will be.