ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SeminoleWind]

if the track stays as is Chesapeake Bay will see some very serious conditions i remember Isabel and all the flooding that went on up their in Baltimore and the inner harbor it was a bad situation.

[artist]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

that has been my question for at least a day now.

[tailgater]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

yeah I saw that also, should get another fix soon but

[CronkPSU]

The eye of the hurricane has been moving near or over some of the
Bahamas resulting is some wobbling. The best estimate of the
initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 knots.
The development of the large trough along the East Coast of the
United States is materializing as predicted by the global models.
This steering pattern will force Irene to turn toward the
north-northwest and the north with a slight increase in forward
speed over the next few days. The latest guidance has changed very
little...and perhaps the only difference is that the GFS shifted 30
N mi to the west...toward the ECMWF solution during the last
portion of the forecast. This does not result in a significant
change of the official forecast track from the previous one.

from the 11 PM discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250317
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 38 20110825
030800 2351N 07532W 6979 02716 9522 +143 +127 152016 018 018 002 03
030830 2350N 07531W 6962 02732 9525 +136 +132 156016 016 027 000 03
030900 2349N 07529W 6967 02726 9514 +148 +129 185023 028 030 001 00
030930 2348N 07528W 6964 02741 9522 +149 +132 205038 046 061 004 03
031000 2347N 07527W 6973 02744 9551 +139 +137 210055 059 076 009 03
031030 2345N 07526W 6962 02781 //// +114 //// 209075 077 075 022 05
031100 2344N 07524W 6984 02774 //// +095 //// 206075 077 064 029 05
031130 2343N 07523W 6964 02813 9637 +102 //// 209073 075 065 010 05
031200 2342N 07522W 6963 02829 9638 +131 +112 210069 071 066 002 03
031230 2341N 07521W 6969 02840 9665 +121 //// 210067 068 068 002 05
031300 2340N 07520W 6966 02855 9679 +120 //// 212065 066 /// /// 05
031330 2339N 07519W 6966 02858 9683 +119 //// 211067 068 /// /// 05
031400 2338N 07518W 6961 02870 9693 +122 +114 211068 069 /// /// 03
031430 2337N 07516W 6974 02872 9714 +128 +107 210067 068 /// /// 03
031500 2335N 07515W 6967 02892 9721 +123 +109 211067 068 /// /// 03
031530 2334N 07514W 6963 02906 9737 +114 //// 213069 075 /// /// 05
031600 2333N 07513W 6971 02907 //// +084 //// 210082 084 /// /// 05
031630 2332N 07512W 6964 02920 //// +085 //// 205087 087 /// /// 05
031700 2332N 07512W 6964 02920 9784 +103 //// 204086 087 067 004 05
031730 2330N 07510W 6966 02941 9792 +105 +102 207086 087 065 005 00
$$
;

[Aja]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

I have family in Va right now doing a job for GOV. Told most they talk to there aren't taking this seriously because the forecasters early on has Irene in Ga, then SC now NC. All they talk with expect this is media hype and not believing this is going to effect any US soil. Goes to concur earlier posts by someone I read here that predictions made more than 3 days out are having a very harmful effect with citizen trust in forecasters.

[bamajammer4eva]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

that has been my question for at least a day now.

According to this no

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 75.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

[Dave]

[edgeblade]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD. My son in Chesapeake Va says it is business as usual in the Hampton Roads area. I guess since the track has been shifted a bit east they think they are in the clear......MGC

FWIW, I was in the grocery store this evening (in nearby Yorktown, VA) and the aisle with bottled water was almost completely empty. The store had various floor displays of water and other supplies set up however.

[Steve H.]

The only reason I bring this up is because there is currently a tropical there is a tropical storm warning since this afternoon for the Atlantic waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet from 20 to 60 NM off the coast. That was issued when the Storm had Tropical storm winds from the center at 205 miles. Now its 255 miles. Logic please?

[artist]

I would have dropped the intensity at the advisory. Recon only supports Category 2 right now, I would have put it at 90 kt.

Concur, though I probably would have gone 95 knots with the old "and this may be generous" line. Not sure what he means saying "I will wait for the plane to finish sampling the hurricane before reducing the winds a little bit". Does he mean, wait until the end of the mission? Plane had already completed one full pattern when he wrote this.

The reports coming in from some parts of the Bahama's have really been up there. I am wondering if that has anything to do with it.

[Canelaw99]

Phil Ferro, local WSVN 7 met, just said his only concern is that Irene is a large storm, and to imagine a large tanker in the water "if you will". If you ask that tanker to turn right, it takes a long time to do it, due to the size it can't turn quickly. He said if it takes a long time for Irene to turn "we may feel more of this than we'd like". Just figured I'd pass that on....

[jpigott]

Phil Ferro, local WSVN 7 met, just said his only concern is that Irene is a large storm, and to imagine a large tanker in the water "if you will". If you ask that tanker to turn right, it takes a long time to do it, due to the size it can't turn quickly. He said if it takes a long time for Irene to turn "we may feel more of this than we'd like". Just figured I'd pass that on....

Is this guy a talking head or is he fairly well respected withing the meteorology field?

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 250320
XXAA 75037 99238 70756 08035 99953 27002 16012 00927 ///// /////
92268 25601 17013 85014 22813 18511 70692 16015 17505 88999 77999
31313 09608 80307
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 2385N07557W 0311 MBL WND 17012 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18
009 953697 WL150 16013 084 REL 2384N07557W 030723 SPG 2385N07557W
031123 =
XXBB 75038 99238 70756 08035 00953 27002 11850 22813 22697 15615
21212 00953 16012 11949 15512 22906 19011 33850 18511 44811 20011
55792 17010 66697 17006
31313 09608 80307
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 2385N07557W 0311 MBL WND 17012 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18
009 953697 WL150 16013 084 REL 2384N07557W 030723 SPG 2385N07557W
031123 =

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 17

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 3Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 23.8N 75.6W
Location: 140 miles (226 km) to the SE (129°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (28.14 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 160° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
1000mb -427m (-1401 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 268m (879 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.5°C (77.9°F) 170° (from the S) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 1,014m (3,327 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F) 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
700mb 2,692m (8,832 ft) 16.0°C (60.8°F) 14.5°C (58.1°F) 175° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:07Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 23.85N 75.57W
Splash Time: 3:11Z

Release Location: 23.84N 75.57W View map)
Release Time: 3:07:23Z

Splash Location: 23.85N 75.57W (
Splash Time: 3:11:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 953mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
953mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.8°C (80.2°F)
850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F)
697mb 15.6°C (60.1°F) 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
949mb 155° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
906mb 190° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
811mb 200° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
792mb 170° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
697mb 170° (from the S) 6 knots (7 mph)

[Canelaw99]

Question....when looking at the steering map, which option is the correct/best for this storm?

[bamajammer4eva]

The only reason I bring this up is because there is currently a tropical there is a tropical storm warning since this afternoon for the Atlantic waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet from 20 to 60 NM off the coast. That was issued when the Storm had Tropical storm winds from the center at 205 miles. Now its 255 miles. Logic please?

220 miles NE 130 miles west and nw

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 250319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/03:07:20Z
B. 23 deg 50 min N
075 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2685 m
D. 71 kt
E. 292 deg 22 nm
F. 045 deg 90 kt
G. 296 deg 28 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 281 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

[tailgater]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

yeah I saw that also, should get another fix soon but

last Vortex message position 23.8N 75.58W

[artist]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 3:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°50'N 75°35'W (23.8333N 75.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 140 miles (225 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,685m (8,809ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 90kts (From the NE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:41:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W/WNW (281°) from the flight level center

[Riptide]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

yeah I saw that also, should get another fix soon but

last Vortex message position 23.8N 75.58W

Obvious wobble pattern.