Texas Winter 2014-2015

[iorange55]

05Z HRRR looking very good with 6"+ in the Metroplex and 3"+ for all north of I-20 in North and Northeast Texas.

All the models seem to be predicting several inches of snow for most of the area. I see the radar trends, I know all the ingredients are there; however, I still find myself getting nervous.

I think the terrible start to this winter has made me paranoid.

[Brent]

05Z HRRR looking very good with 6"+ in the Metroplex and 3"+ for all north of I-20 in North and Northeast Texas.

All the models seem to be predicting several inches of snow for most of the area. I see the radar trends, I know all the ingredients are there; however, I still find myself getting nervous.

I think the terrible start to this winter has made me paranoid.

LOL the fact it has started as rain(even though I think I know what the deal is with the cooling of the column, the issue was the precip came in way early) is making me doubt it too...

Plus you're right we've had a lot of bad luck this winter.

But then I was watching the CBS 11 replay and it doesn't even changeover west of the metro til 1-3am and the metro 3-5am so... it's not like we're even in the window for snow yet.

[Tcu101]

RAP model around 2am really explodes right over DFW with 45 and 50 dBz

[Ntxw]

05Z HRRR looking very good with 6"+ in the Metroplex and 3"+ for all north of I-20 in North and Northeast Texas.

All the models seem to be predicting several inches of snow for most of the area. I see the radar trends, I know all the ingredients are there; however, I still find myself getting nervous.

I think the terrible start to this winter has made me paranoid.

Nervous that the radar isn't blue yet? No snow for you! Lucy'd!

Kid kid, the ULL is still crossing TX/NM border it hasn't gone negative tilt yet. 850's won't cool for another few hours when it gets closer and everything will quickly transition 4-5am and the blues will explode . Enjoy the cold rain for a little bit

[iorange55]

Nervous that the radar isn't blue yet? No snow for you! Lucy'd!

Kid kid, the ULL is still crossing TX/NM border it hasn't gone negative tilt yet. 850's won't cool for another few hours when it gets closer and everything will quickly transition. Enjoy the cold rain for a little bit

Haha, I know...I know! My brain understands this, but my heart is putting up a fight! It will come though, I am sure of it. And it's going to be worth the wait.

[Brent]

Trust me it's totally normal to get nervous and think of worst case scenarios... I do it everytime. I always say the worst part of a snowstorm is the few hours before it starts lol. Your mind wonders if every little thing is a bad thing.

[Tcu101]

I agree the cold rain has me nervous.. I feel like this will take away from some of the predicted snow totals but like NTXW we will have to wait for the core

[Brent]

I agree the cold rain has me nervous.. I feel like this will take away from some of the predicted snow totals but like NTXW we will have to wait for the core

But to be fair... they never expected it to be snowing now so I don't see it like that.

I'm still watching the CBS 11 replay and his model is basically what's happening... rain around midnight... snow changeover 3-4am... and he mentioned possible whiteout conditions

[Tcu101]

I agree the cold rain has me nervous.. I feel like this will take away from some of the predicted snow totals but like NTXW we will have to wait for the core

But to be fair... they never expected it to be snowing now so I don't see it like that.

I'm still watching the CBS 11 replay and his model is basically what's happening... rain around midnight... snow changeover 3-4am... and he mentioned possible whiteout conditions

Good point!

[Cyclenall]

I guess I'm just talking to myself.

Its weird because I was going to post exactly that but didn't because I saw 2 others post soon after . Now there is another 3 pages so many are in tune.

[Tcu101]

Man the 05Z RAP has almost .60" of liquid equivalent and still running from the Red River down to the I-20 corridor from Gainesville southwestward towards Abilene ..

[Texas Snowman]

David Reimer at Texas Storm Chasers just posted a 1 a.m. update and said that models continue to indicate that heavy snow, perhaps convective, will develop in N/TX after 3 a.m. Still expecting 1-4 in DFW, 5-6 from Greenville to Paris and 1 to 2 inches in East Texas.

[Ntxw]

BTW GFS is showing a high today now of 35F...so much for melting afternoon and 40s.

[Texas Snowman]

Radar along I-20 from Abilene to Fort Worth is REALLY lit up right now, both sides.

I'm sure it's all rain, man if it was snow or sleet.

[TheProfessor]

I wonder if travel in the morning will be a little worse than predicted now. Looks like the light rain is starting to freeze on higher surfaces, like the grill in my courtyard, with the low of 29 I wonder if the roads will start to freeze.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW GFS is showing a high today now of 35F...so much for melting afternoon and 40s.

I knew that couldn't be right. No strong scouring SW wind and a heavy fresh snowpack (I'm assuming, anyway) just didn't seem to add up to 43-45 which is what I was hearing.

If some/most of that snowpack and moisture survives the afternoon, going to be some icy road conditions tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

[iorange55]

BTW GFS is showing a high today now of 35F...so much for melting afternoon and 40s.

Does that have something to do with it finally showing the higher snowfall totals? Or is there less sun? Combination of both?

[Tcu101]

I wonder if travel in the morning will be a little worse than predicted now. Looks like the light rain is starting to freeze on higher surfaces, like the grill in my courtyard, with the low of 29 I wonder if the roads will start to freeze.

That could be possible.. Especially if we get a layer of ice below the snow later

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSFortWorth - Likely seeing moderate to heavy sleet, mixed with rain, in Stephens and Eastland Counties. #txwx

[Brandon8181]

Good morning friends,

Hope everyone is getting plent of sleep. Haha . As we watch this system evolve and the weather service now-casting trying to catch up looks like they have lowered our overnight temperatures by 1 degree and increased our potential snowfall here by a couple of inches.

Our temperature also went down 1 degree now setting at 32 with a 28 degree dew point. Precipitation is moving in from the west.

Looks like this is the real deal. If we get anything similar to 2010 I expect most districts to clothes.

Have fun and stay safe!