ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Like I said, I think the LLC is still closer to the 24th latitude.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... W.74pc.jpg

Sorry, my image host site is not downloading pics this morning for some reason.

[TropicalSailor]

That's a big ship.

Cargo ship freeboard + superstructure + mast is tall but 131' is pushing it. Is say 60-70 feet is more realistic.

Not really it could be a Cruise Ship, they have 18 decks and at the most 4 of them are below water. So that would be 14 decks above sea level which if you figure each deck is at least 12 feet tall so that would make 148 feet above sea level so that would be 45 meters above sea level.

I'd be surprised if it was a cruise ship. They would have dodged the center area

[SouthDadeFish]

Fresh pass:



That's a whole lot of ice scattering indicative of really deep convection. Still doesn't appear to be too organized, mostly consisting of a linear band, but at least it is in the middle of a CDO. Again, I highly doubt this is only a TD with convection that deep.

Edit: I want to say the curved ice scattering around 24 N is not the center since it doesn't really match up with some obs, but I cannot be sure. Could be the mid-level center though.

[northjaxpro]

no on recon yet ?

I thought someone said they had some mechanical issues but now had taken off but I don't know
how to access the site to verify.

Nothing showing on FlightAware...http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

I read on the Recon thread that they were having problems and ready for takeoff, but apparently have not yet left to depart. Thsnks Aric for providing that confirmation with this link.

[caneman]

Whoever gets this is going to be in for a world of hurt rain wise, unless it's moving fast. That was just a feeder ban here, albeit a good size and slow mover. Hopefully the mass of.t.d 9 will be.moving quickly

[JaxGator]

Speical advisory then? Or will they wait till 11?

[Recurve]

Fresh pass:

https://s10.postimg.org/97iy2f2hl/TD9_PCT.jpg

That's a whole lot of ice scattering indicative of really deep convection. Still doesn't appear to be too organized, mostly consisting of a linear band, but at least it is in the middle of a CDO. Again, I highly doubt this is only a TD with convection that deep.

Edit: I want to say the curved ice scattering around 24 N is not the center since it doesn't really match up with some obs, but I cannot be sure. Could be the mid-level center though.

That really shows the complex that pounded Tampa Bay this morning with lots of lightning and rain.

[northjaxpro]

Like I said, I think the LLC is still closer to the 24th latitude.

Based on that image of the center, you are about right with your estimate NDG at this particular time.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Speical advisory then? Or will they wait till 11?

Most likely wait for 11 to let it play out a little more.

[ATCcane]

[/quote]
Different planes for pacific folks...thats not the issue..its the usaf, plenty of planes to handle the current situation...there is a recon schedule for all to see on the nhc site..no mystery here[/quote]

Not true....the same planes are used for the Pacific. The Air Force sent 3 planes to Hawaii from Biloxi.

[ronjon]

Speical advisory then? Or will they wait till 11?

Most likely wait for 11 to let it play out a little more.

I don''t think the NHC will upgrade without RECON confirmation.

[ronjon]

Speical advisory then? Or will they wait till 11?

Most likely wait for 11 to let it play out a little more.

I don''t think the NHC will upgrade without RECON confirmation.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like a giant question mark in the center of circulation...pretty much sums up this storm.

[JaxGator]

Speical advisory then? Or will they wait till 11?

Most likely wait for 11 to let it play out a little more.

I don''t think the NHC will upgrade without RECON confirmation.

They did use a ship measurement to upgrade Alberto to a TS in 2012.

[northjaxpro]

Just got alert that Valdosta GA is under tropical storm watch. Starting to add these watches north and pretty soon east I would imagine.

Yes, those watches or warnings will shift east likely by the 5:00 p.m. advisory board this evening. Also, I would think there is a good posdibilty of Wond advisories for inland NE FL and extrem SE GA counties as well if this system intensifies upon landfall.

[GCANE]

I think the CoC may get pushed back a bit. Maybe around 24.5N 87W.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[robbielyn]

Whoever gets this is going to be in for a world of hurt rain wise, unless it's moving fast. That was just a feeder ban here, albeit a good size and slow mover. Hopefully the mass of.t.d 9 will be.moving quickly

Just north of you in spring hill, fl. Have had light to no breezes this AM and not much rain. Not yet anyways. What a difference a few miles make. And you all not even in the TS Warning.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[Aric Dunn]

thats a whole lot of continued over shooting tops right about where the center is around 24.2 north ish.

[JaxGator]

Has anyone seen this recent ASCAT pass? It's 3 hours old so it might look different by now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrLpdjFWEAA2jDm.jpg