Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[tolakram]

Dust is there, but an interesting event is occurring as well.





See how the dust has been completely cut off due to the emergence of a 'feature' well north of this one? The environment is a lot less hostile than it could be, and even if this wave does not develop it is priming the environment for the next one, in my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps continues the south trend with the Canadian

[SoupBone]

Dust is there, but an interesting event is occurring as well.




See how the dust has been completely cut off due to the emergence of a 'feature' well north of this one? The environment is a lot less hostile than it could be, and even if this wave does not develop it is priming the environment for the next one, in my opinion.

What's crazy though is that last week it looked the SAL was well on its way to subsiding. Is it possible that the SAL is getting one last push in before subsiding?

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

Nogaps continues the south trend with the Canadian

And also develops more the wave behind, same as the Canadian.

[Ivanhater]

168

[Ivanhater]

I just don't know about a recurve...That is a pretty stout high that develops over the NE U.S

[jaxfladude]

That is not a good trend for some!

[cycloneye]

Ivan,in general the models trended more west in the 12z package right?

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, the SAL looks pretty horrible out there. What the heck is going on?
We are approaching late August and the SAL that had looked better is getting worse again....

I would think that would effect the potential of these waves....

[hurricaneCW]

Calm down, yeah the waves may be affected a bit, but it's nothing that's going to stop them from developing. It may stunt how fast they develop which would ultimately mean a more westward track. The SAL in 2005 was much worse, thus the homegrown developments.

[KWT]

Its normal CZ, remember the SAL outruns any TW usually because SAL comes up in easterly bursts, now if we got a big SAL outbreak 3-4 days down the line, then as we saw with TS Colin, thats when the problem emerge...

OH and Ivanhater, that is a certain recurve probably exactly the same as the 12z GFS...

Now that high is interesting...BUT look at the upper flow and heights and you'll see a rather different look:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

a weak upper high may well form but not in time for this wave...

[cycloneye]

Definitly the 12z GFS was more west as you can see ilustrated by the red line. Will the trend more west continue?

[Macrocane]

I think that some people are overdoing the SAL outbreak, it's not that big, yes there's a lot more than last week but it doesn't have the pinkish colors that it had in July, I think it's normal.

[KWT]

Yeah your rarely going to see a totally clear Atlantic for more then a few days at a time.

Anyway models seem to be in decent agreement of a W/WNW motion then a recurve...if the system stays weak then it could get further west but given its latitude and the upper trough still digging fairly well, I'd be surprised if it got much further west then say 65W.

The 2nd wave though which would likely IMO develop a good deal later would probably have a clear route through despite what the GFS wants to believe.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS to run in just over an hour....

[Frank2]

Dust is there, but an interesting event is occurring as well.

Tolakram,

Interesting how that TUTT-like surge dropped SW ahead of the current wave and forced a northward movement - unusual, but about 2 years ago (can't recall the name) a strengtening TS was moving through the southern Windward Islands when a TUTT-like finger of a feature (on the WV) dropped southward about 500-1,000 miles and with perfect timing literally struct the TS right on it's noggin - had it not happened the TS was well on it's way to becoming a hurricane, but that put it's lights out (wish I could remember the name of the TS), but it was one of the more exceptional things I'd ever seen in my many years of looking at satellite loops...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

IT has a nice mid level Circ .. pretty high latitude but should not head out to sea just yet... if convection re-fires tonight It would seriously look at it for development..

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[KWT]

Interesting how that TUTT-like surge dropped SW ahead of the current wave and forced a northward movement - unusual, but about 2 years ago (can't recall the name) a strengtening TS was moving through the southern Windward Islands when a TUTT-like finger of a feature (on the WV) dropped southward about 500-1,000 miles and with perfect timing literally struct the TS right on it's noggin - had it not happened the TS was well on it's way to becoming a hurricane, but that put it's lights out (wish I could remember the name of the TS), but it was one of the more exceptional things I'd ever seen in my many years of looking at satellite loops...

Frank

Whilst it isn't Chris, back in 2006 Chris was a strengthening storm and it got just torn apart by shear, and it only took a few hours to go from a healthy storm to a totally naked circulation, it was pretty amazing transformation.

By the way Tolkram's loop shows what I mean by how the Primer low has really helped to get rid of the dry air that was out there. Its clearly in the very first stages and I don't think it strengthens as quickly as the GFS expects, the ECM looks the best IMO, pretty far north as well for it to be a risk to the states, I highly doubt it is a risk to anywhere bar maybe Bermuda...