WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[poppixie27]

what are the chances of bopha hitting the philippines manila capital?

[CrazyC83]

what are the chances of bopha hitting the philippines manila capital?

Almost no chance.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 033
WTPN31 PGTW 032100
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 7.5N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 8.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.7N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 126.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 52 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[dhoeze]

Landfall just south of Cateel (population 30,000). Eyewall going over the town.

We could be looking at a death toll of 3000 or even more...

There was a forced evacuation yesterday, so I'm hoping zero or little casualties.

Yup saw in the news, they are also anticipating storm surges. Hope you guys and the rest of the Visayas and Mindanao would be safe. Saw series of news reporting that this time we came prepared. Hopefully 0 casualties.

Godspeed all.

[ahnise]

Feet on the ground in Davao City in case anyone has questions.

[supercane4867]

Feet on the ground in Davao City in case anyone has questions.

Ok one quick question, what are the conditions there like?

[ahnise]

Where I am at conditions are not bad. I have seen much worse in Los Angeles during a normal winter storm. The Eye is probably at its closest point to us (directly above us) but all we are getting is moderate showers and gusty winds. Winds are actually quite low in intensity. We have a mountain range to the north of us which seems to be shielding us. Also the Davao Gulf inlet faces south preventing storm surge.

I am in contact with friends elsewhere. Got a friend in Mati who reports high winds which are destroying houses. There is also a power outage there. This is surprising given the distance from the main storm.

The big concern here is flash flooding, that the rainfall in the mountains to the north will cause the Davao River to overflow. There are a few subdivisions built in flood plains. I have a friend in Jade Valley (check it on google maps) who is particularly at risk as this subdivision was built in an area which was part of the river before it changed course.


UPDATE:: Mati local government is ordering evacuations (Bases on text message from resident there)

[CrazyC83]

Where I am at conditions are not bad. I have seen much worse in Los Angeles during a normal winter storm. The Eye is probably at its closest point to us (directly above us) but all we are getting is moderate showers and gusty winds. Winds are actually quite low in intensity. We have a mountain range to the north of us which seems to be shielding us. Also the Davao Gulf inlet faces south preventing storm surge.

I am in contact with friends elsewhere. Got a friend in Mati who reports high winds which are destroying houses. There is also a power outage there. This is surprising given the distance from the main storm.

The big concern here is flash flooding, that the rainfall in the mountains to the north will cause the Davao River to overflow. There are a few subdivisions built in flood plains. I have a friend in Jade Valley (check it on google maps) who is particularly at risk as this subdivision was built in an area which was part of the river before it changed course.

You're on the left side of the storm and well away so that makes sense. Sounds like winds less than tropical storm force?

[Crostorm]

Strong winds, rains battering Surigao del Sur

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih__lb62 ... plpp_video

[ahnise]

Where I am at conditions are not bad. I have seen much worse in Los Angeles during a normal winter storm. The Eye is probably at its closest point to us (directly above us) but all we are getting is moderate showers and gusty winds. Winds are actually quite low in intensity. We have a mountain range to the north of us which seems to be shielding us. Also the Davao Gulf inlet faces south preventing storm surge.

I am in contact with friends elsewhere. Got a friend in Mati who reports high winds which are destroying houses. There is also a power outage there. This is surprising given the distance from the main storm.

The big concern here is flash flooding, that the rainfall in the mountains to the north will cause the Davao River to overflow. There are a few subdivisions built in flood plains. I have a friend in Jade Valley (check it on google maps) who is particularly at risk as this subdivision was built in an area which was part of the river before it changed course.

You're on the left side of the storm and well away so that makes sense. Sounds like winds less than tropical storm force?

Considerably Less than Tropical Storm Force. Its just a rainy day here.

Actually the labeling of Davao City is not accurate. My location is close to Samal Island which is North East of where the Davao City label is. This puts me below (and maybe to the right [east]) of the storm. When you say "Left" do you mean west of the storm, or to the left of its direction of travel ?

[CrazyC83]

Where I am at conditions are not bad. I have seen much worse in Los Angeles during a normal winter storm. The Eye is probably at its closest point to us (directly above us) but all we are getting is moderate showers and gusty winds. Winds are actually quite low in intensity. We have a mountain range to the north of us which seems to be shielding us. Also the Davao Gulf inlet faces south preventing storm surge.

I am in contact with friends elsewhere. Got a friend in Mati who reports high winds which are destroying houses. There is also a power outage there. This is surprising given the distance from the main storm.

The big concern here is flash flooding, that the rainfall in the mountains to the north will cause the Davao River to overflow. There are a few subdivisions built in flood plains. I have a friend in Jade Valley (check it on google maps) who is particularly at risk as this subdivision was built in an area which was part of the river before it changed course.

You're on the left side of the storm and well away so that makes sense. Sounds like winds less than tropical storm force?

Considerably Less than Tropical Storm Force. Its just a rainy day here.

Actually the labeling of Davao City is not accurate. My location is close to Samal Island which is North East of where the Davao City label is. This puts me below (and maybe to the right [east]) of the storm. When you say "Left" do you mean west of the storm, or to the left of its direction of travel ?

Left meaning south in this case - basically straight would be the direction of storm travel, right being north side (strongest winds and surge).

I was just trying to also use real-world experience to estimate winds there, since it sounds a lot calmer than it was here in Hurricane Sandy (highest winds here were about 53 mph sustained).

[francis327]

Live Webcam for Cebu City. Just in case anyone is interested to have a look.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/sunstarnews

[RobWESTPACWX]

another video update,

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzSOk_AW950[/youtube]

just staying busy here, along with the whole team, even a few who are in the path of the storm. Been nutty the last few days.

Also if anyone finds any footage along eastern Mindanao please share. Still little reports from that region.

[Crostorm]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON "PabloPH” (BOPHA)
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 04 DECEMBER 2012
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM

today)

TYPHOON “PABLO” has slightly weakened after making a landfall and

is now traversing the province of Bukidnon.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon

“PABLO” was located based on radar, satellite and surface data at

50 km East of Malaybalay, Bukidnon (8.1°N, 125.5ºE).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near the center and

gustiness of up to 195 kph

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.

[Crostorm]

here are some pictures Mati City, Davao Oriental earlier this morning

https://twitter.com/Super_Vinsoy/status ... 16/photo/1

[euro6208]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

[supercane4867]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

You need to stop exaggerating the intensity, all dvorak estimates topped at T7.5, there's nothing to support 160kts

[Cyclenall]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

There wasn't even an eye at landfall, how on earth did you arrive at a value of 160 knots at landfall? Hours before there was a very tight and round eye in a perfect CDO but it faded.

[euro6208]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

There wasn't even an eye at landfall, how on earth did you arrive at a value of 160 knots at landfall? Hours before there was a very tight and round eye in a perfect CDO but it faded.

so how strong do you think it was? i'm convinced it was a Cat 5 (7.5= 155 knots) landfall just a matter of how strong...



eye or no eye?

[euro6208]

Bopha's core is about to reemerge over water again...