ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[blp]

I see a naked circ around 14.8 and 65.8. Looks like the circ we saw earlier. I don't know if that is the main feature or a decaying one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

[SeGaBob]

Convection is also increasing with the disturbance to the east of 97l... it could be a while before one wins over the other but that's just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wouldn't say no just YET to a TD or TS at 11pm or 5am

[SeGaBob]

No change:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think the NHC would have mentioned the disturbance east of 97L if it really had a chance of developing.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Wouldn't say no just YET to a TD or TS at 11pm or 5am

I don't think so. There would have to be a rapid increase in organization for it to be declared a depression at 11 pm. Highest wind speed on buoy 42060 was about 25 kts and lowest pressure was about 1008 mb.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

Wouldn't say no just YET to a TD or TS at 11pm or 5am

It's more likely to be 5 or 11pm tomorrow evening depending on if the plane goes and finds what it's looking for.

This is NOT a forecast just my opinion.

[Hammy]

Wouldn't say no just YET to a TD or TS at 11pm or 5am

It's more likely to be 5pm or 11pm tomorrow evening depending if the plane goes and finds what it's looking for.

This is NOT a forecast just my opinion.

I would tend to agree here, given that there still doesn't quite seem to be a well defined LLC at the moment. That said, if it continues its organization and remains under the upper high, Gabrielle by this time tomorrow would not surprise me.

[TJRE]

Not to shabby.... for a ten hour swing - IMHO




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4ir304

Ships ----with some small RI support

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt

[SeGaBob]

I do think the NHC should have upped the 48hr potential to at least 40-50% and not leave it at 30%

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wouldn't say no just YET to a TD or TS at 11pm or 5am

It's more likely to be 5pm or 11pm tomorrow evening depending if the plane goes and finds what it's looking for.

This is NOT a forecast just my opinion.

I would tend to agree here, given that there still doesn't quite seem to be a well defined LLC at the moment. That said, if it continues its organization and remains under the upper high, Gabrielle by this time tomorrow would not surprise me.

I agree with you, if it continues this organization. Maybe by 2:00 pm or 5:00, is it my eyes or does it appear to have a made a jump to the north verses dues west.

[SeGaBob]

I noticed the jump north as well. It does appear to be trying to wrap up in the last few frames of this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


This is just my opinion and NOT a forecast.

[MGC]

We've had disturbances tease us this year so I want to see if 97L convection persists through the night before I get excited......MGC

[NDG]

Vorticity coming in now within radar range from San Juan, look to the SE of P.R.
This is far away so any rotation seen on radar is in the mid levels for the mean time until it gets closer to the radar site.

Click here for zomed in long range radar loop

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 040010
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 03/2345Z

C. 15.4N

D. 64.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH DT=1.5 BASED ON
3/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looking good and in the morning I think we will all have a better idea when and where TS Gabrielle forms.

[SeGaBob]

I think it's a big if at this point.

[CrazyC83]

We're going into DMax? That could be what puts it over the top.

[ronjon]

Actually looks to be a TD now so I wouldn't be surprised with an upgrade tomorrow after the first VIS SAT shots come up and convection has grown/persisted overnight. If its ramping up early, then the recurve scenarios are looking increasingly likely unless this thing gets torn up over Hispanola. The jump NW may be real or apparent if the circulation is just tightening up.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W FROM
21N TO 10N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N63W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.