2015 Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like a trapped piece of energy (not sure of its origins or at what level the circulation is) south of building high pressure and between a couple of frontal systems. I don't have higher resolution run access, but it appears to be a candidate for a "nontropical low" or possibly an STS. Odd thing is that seems too early in the coming pattern flip to get trapped for too long. I think it's the front in the Eastern USA behind it that probably kicks this out unless it hooks up its trailing high overtop for the coming Western Atlantic ridging pattern. Still waiting for the evolution and solutions of Goni and Atsani to telegraph the pattern here, but if either or both bend back west say after their current 18z 8-22-15 progged positions, then the SEUS is open for whatever follows the low you are talking about. I think Atlantic ridging will lock into place into the 1st week of September. Beyond that? We should know more each day depending on the eventual tracks of the 2 mentioned WPAC systems.
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Hey storms expert,

"Always" almost never works for the tropics. Everyone else will vouch for that.

The cutoff may need to be watched along the east coast in case of a ridge bridge job so it seems likely that a possible STS or even TS may form SW of Bermuda and has potential if shear is lower than expected

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[Steve]

Fair points. NAM sim radar shoots it back to the coast but it is quick and stays loose. GFS out so far on the NCEP site is much slower but looks like it traps it a few hundred miles east of the OBX and sort of brings it back toward the coast, but still loose. Maybe an sts???

[Hurricaneman]

Fair points. NAM sim radar shoots it back to the coast but it is quick and stays loose. GFS out so far on the NCEP site is much slower but looks like it traps it a few hundred miles east of the OBX and sort of brings it back toward the coast, but still loose. Maybe an sts???

that may be a fair assumption and seems most tropical around 108hrs on the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Brent]

A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form within a
couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean
in a few days. Environmental conditions could support some
tropical or subtropical development of the system by the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Alyono]

long range MU has an intense hurricane blowing up very near PR

[Gustywind]

long range MU has an intense hurricane blowing up very near PR

Thanks for this info. Do you have that link please? Thanks. Could you post it?

[gatorcane]

long range MU has an intense hurricane blowing up very near PR

Thanks for this info. Do you have that link please? Thanks. Could you post it?

[Gustywind]

long range MU has an intense hurricane blowing up very near PR

Thanks for this info. Do you have that link please? Thanks. Could you post it?

Thanks Gator Cycloneye should not like it unless for some good rains and no more but we're far away from reality. We shall see...

[Hammy]

Euro is indicating three storms forming in the next week, including one (or the remnants thereof) ending up in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Seems like the MDR is going to be very active the next couple of weeks. Will there be enough shear and dry air to take everything down or will at least one of these bust through and become strong?

The 12Z ECMWF run day 10 below:

[Steve]

GFS long range develops a system which at that point is hot on the tail of Danny's remnants also in that general area. Not sure if that player is on the field yet or not...

[mitchell]

It looks like a trapped piece of energy (not sure of its origins or at what level the circulation is) south of building high pressure and between a couple of frontal systems. I don't have higher resolution run access, but it appears to be a candidate for a "nontropical low" or possibly an STS.

Good call Steve:

The interaction of a broad non-tropical area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda and an
upper-level low is producing an elongated area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for tropical or subtropical
development of this system through early next week while it moves
northward to north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Steve]

Thanks Mitchell. I'm not all that but since a few models were showing that energy, it was probably worth mentioning if not necessarily in a thread of its own (now 97L of course). There was actually a previous post to that one questioning whether that energy was a candidate for a nontropical low or sts. The western Atlantic, even in the horse latitudes, seems like a reasonable place to keep an eye on this year.

[Hammy]

A question for one of the pro-mets: the 0z Euro is showing a very small and tight low a bit southeast of Newfoundland at 192 hours, does this appear to be a tropical system when everything (wind, temperature, etc) are considered? It appears to have a warm spot with it as well in the 850mb temps.

[Hurricaneman]

Is the GFS having covective feedback issues again with something between the wave near the Cape Verdes and Danny

[HURRICANELONNY]

You mean the 30/60 wave that came off africa. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Hammy]

GFS developing a major hurricane near Cape Verde in a week

[WPBWeather]

And Larry Cosgrove says more Atlantic storms over the next few weeks. So much for the MDR is dead nonsense.

[ninel conde]

And Larry Cosgrove says more Atlantic storms over the next few weeks. So much for the MDR is dead nonsense.

As we see with danny, its quite dead as far as making it to the west atlantic.

[WPBWeather]

And Larry Cosgrove says more Atlantic storms over the next few weeks. So much for the MDR is dead nonsense.

As we see with danny, its quite dead as far as making it to the west atlantic.

Welcome back! We had a hurricane while you were away.