ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

INIT 20/0900Z 12.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.5N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.3N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

Per the 5am Disco, Danny was supposed to reach 60kt's in 36 hours... Will this deepening influence him more poleward? Think missing the Caribbean to the NE is the only shot for Danny to survive past 60W... Very cool little system, each season, busy or quiet, always seems to bring us something interesting...

[Siker]

I would wager this is a Cat 1 by now:




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS

[Siker]

Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS

That is very impressive, edited. Thanks!

[Gustywind]

Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS

That is very impressive, edited. Thanks!

You're welcomed. So looks like Danny is getting better and better during the last 2 hours, interresting hours ahead.

[tropicwatch]

Danny is looking a hell of a lot healthier this morning

[MGC]

If that is an eye than Danny is likely a hurricane IMO. Could sat estimates be off considering its small size???....MGC

[NCSTORMMAN]

Sure looks like a hurricane to me. I thought it was dry air but nope that is an eye. Could this thing get bigger with intensification?

[CrazyC83]

With that clear eye, I would go with 70 kt personally. That's a T4.0 in my opinion and Dvorak also underestimates small storms.

[Alyono]

that is a cane

[NCSTORMMAN]

that is a cane

When I see you say it Alyono then I know it is one lol. Usually one of the most conservative METS on here for good reason.

[Gustywind]

that is a cane

So given its appearence Alyono, what are you best estimations in terms of sustained winds now? Do we have a possible cat 1 cane?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Pinhole eye on latest frame and gaining north some. Will go to the right of the cone on this path and avoid the Caribbean.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[WmE]

With that clear eye, I would go with 70 kt personally. That's a T4.0 in my opinion and Dvorak also underestimates small storms.

Yeah I agree. Looks T4.0 to me.

[beoumont]

Considering the appearance just a few hours ago, I have to ask: is that an eye, or is it Kirk Douglas's chin?

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
7:46 AM ECT THU, AUG 20, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE, AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. HENCE, RESIDENTS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IN THE EVENT THAT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT THEM.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF DANNY CLOSELY AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE ADVISORIES.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE

[BobHarlem]

Rapid Intensification happening now?

I figure it'll go just as fast in the other direction on Sunday or so.

[blp]

Nice looking system. This appearance is not a surprise to me considering how good the low level structure looked yesterday. All it needed was sustained convection and it would take off. The question will be if the stronger system will track right of the guidance and avoid major land interaction. Still plenty of model runs that could change. I MO needs to stay north of the islands to have any chance.

[Nimbus]

Took a little stair step motion as the eye was stacking and clearing out.
Should be able to get a more accurate 6 hour track this afternoon in time for the 5 pm.

[SFLcane]

57 if your on.. So there's no chance this stays N of islands and intensifies? Or atleast maintains minimal hurricane status. 12z models n of nhc track.