ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

Well I have to give props to the NHC on Dorian so far, many were surprised at the hurricane forecast but Dorian sure looks well on it's way. Growing concern for what happens after the Caribbean should have things hopping around here this week. Who needs September?

As usual. Hope they make a comeback; 2018 was not their hottest year (intensity wise and for Florence, basically everything)

[Bostonriff]

What’s everyone think about the RI possibilities and it getting to Cat 2 or 3 before the DR?

Based upon the current runaway blow up since local dawn, my assumption is that it's RI'ing right now.

I also tend to discount model track consensus before two things have happened: a closed eye has formed and the storm vertically stacked itself (and thus hidden mid-level steering can assert over any previous low-level preference, or vice-versa), and they send a plane in a wide run around the system to give the computers something decent to work with.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like I'm hitting up Publix tonight.... and refilling that propane tank.

good idea, we havent even hit prime time for sofla..you can always drink the water later and fill your tank with generator gas..im waiting another day

[BYG Jacob]

Well I have to give props to the NHC on Dorian so far, many were surprised at the hurricane forecast but Dorian sure looks well on it's way. Growing concern for what happens after the Caribbean should have things hopping around here this week. Who needs September?

As usual. Hope they make a comeback; 2018 was not their hottest year (intensity wise and for Florence, basically everything)

You serious, Clark?

[Aric Dunn]

Kinda a bust on the recon planning. By the time intensity is confirmed it will pretty much already be on barbados.

[shiny-pebble]

Looks like the outer edge of convection is starting to hit Barbados

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[NDG]

With those outer bands developing ahead of its core it is moistening its own environment.

[wx98]

First plane doesn’t take off until 1800z correct?

[ouragans]

What’s everyone think about the RI possibilities and it getting to Cat 2 or 3 before the DR?

It's not impossible

[Michele B]

What’s everyone think about the RI possibilities and it getting to Cat 2 or 3 before the DR?

SHIPS has had high RI chances for days now.

Do you have a link to that SHIPS site? I'd like to watch it.

TIA

[Aric Dunn]

Middle season D names are typically a pain in rear.. lol

[GCANE]

Eyewall towers are intensifying.
2 close-in feeder bands.

[abajan]

Dorian is a small cyclone but she has nothing on TS Marco from 2008. TS winds reach 45 miles from Dorians center. Marco just 11.5. Marco is still the smallest cyclone on record.

Marco was a large tornado. So, it doesn't count.

[BYG Jacob]

What’s everyone think about the RI possibilities and it getting to Cat 2 or 3 before the DR?

SHIPS has had high RI chances for days now.

Do you have a link to that SHIPS site? I'd like to watch it.

TIA

I don’t have them on me, and I’m on mobile currently, somebody does tho.

[Blown Away]

When does the Dorian not looking good start?

[abajan]

Too bad Barbados radar is down, has been down for a while now.

For a long while now. It's beyond ridiculous!

[toad strangler]

---

When does the Dorian not looking good start?

As soon as wxman57 comes in to pour cold wAter on all of it lol

[Highteeld]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 135020 UTC
Lat : 12:08:45 N Lon : 57:22:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 4.0

Center Temp : -63.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

[chris_fit]

---

When does the Dorian not looking good start?

As soon as wxman57 comes in to pour cold wAter on all of it lol

Really curious if 57's thoughts have changed on Dorian

[MGC]

Dorian looks healthy on the sat loop this morning. The TS is fighting off the dry air and has good outflow at the upper levels. Convection is really percolating near the circulation center. Recon should find a system near hurricane strength later. Looking at the WV, don't look like there is shear ahead of Dorian for a couple of days. Thinking likely hurricane for the Windwards.....MGC