Texas Summer 2022

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#621 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some nasty heat in the forecast for Oklahoma/KS (Texas isn't cool either). This is not a 10 day forecast but within 5 days for them, jeesh.

Some all time records in play for the I-40 corridor.

https://i.imgur.com/vvYTP7q.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFI2yPC.png


Thankfully every day we get closer to autumn. Maybe this year we will get an early start.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#622 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:05 pm

Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1547967223842500609?s=10&t=H0hisXZtkove-LrBovIEyQ

May get interesting down here in a bit

It’s happening in Pearland people are dancing in the streets!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#623 Postby SoupBone » Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:27 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Some nasty heat in the forecast for Oklahoma/KS (Texas isn't cool either). This is not a 10 day forecast but within 5 days for them, jeesh.

Some all time records in play for the I-40 corridor.

https://i.imgur.com/vvYTP7q.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFI2yPC.png


Thankfully every day we get closer to autumn. Maybe this year we will get an early start.


I would normally, and anecdotally, point to the leaves dropping. But this year, that's just the scorching flames of hell. :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#624 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some nasty heat in the forecast for Oklahoma/KS (Texas isn't cool either). This is not a 10 day forecast but within 5 days for them, jeesh.

Some all time records in play for the I-40 corridor.

https://i.imgur.com/vvYTP7q.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFI2yPC.png

Yeah this is looking ugly, the weather app has a high of 110°F for next Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#625 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some nasty heat in the forecast for Oklahoma/KS (Texas isn't cool either). This is not a 10 day forecast but within 5 days for them, jeesh.

Some all time records in play for the I-40 corridor.

https://i.imgur.com/vvYTP7q.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFI2yPC.png


Geez, my hometown in KS is right below on of those 116 marks. Yikes. I do not recall it ever being anything like that growing up. A few days in the worst of 108 or so. It can get just as hot as here, just not normally as long.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#626 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:39 pm

I'm seeing a lot of storms in southern Texas right now, look at the radar!

Even though that I strongly wish it was here though. :(
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#627 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:41 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Some nasty heat in the forecast for Oklahoma/KS (Texas isn't cool either). This is not a 10 day forecast but within 5 days for them, jeesh.

Some all time records in play for the I-40 corridor.

https://i.imgur.com/vvYTP7q.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFI2yPC.png


Geez, my hometown in KS is right below on of those 116 marks. Yikes. I do not recall it ever being anything like that growing up. A few days in the worst of 108 or so. It can get just as hot as here, just not normally as long.


Euro is downright ugly up there. 850mb temps are top tier. Doesn't help being right below the center of the heat dome and being more interior of the continent. You're right KS can get some short but impressive heat spikes.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#628 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:18 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I'm seeing a lot of storms in southern Texas right now, look at the radar!

Even though that I strongly wish it was here though. :(

Wish we could share them,but it’s a beautiful thing here this afternoon
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#629 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I'm seeing a lot of storms in southern Texas right now, look at the radar!

Even though that I strongly wish it was here though. :(


Rain has been all around me all week long but we’ve missed out on most of it. Did manage to pick up .45” though but a lot of other places have had WAY more than that.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#630 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:14 pm

I guess we're gonna pay not just for the rain in May but the 2 day snowstorm in February :lol: :spam:

At least everyday is a day closer to fall
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#631 Postby utpmg » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:26 pm

Well crap. I was enjoying the cool yesterday even though no rain here in east Austin; just cool and thunder. Then found out my dear friends' country market in Hico was heavily damaged by straight line winds in that thunderstorm outburst. Never a middle ground, it seems.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#632 Postby SoupBone » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I'm seeing a lot of storms in southern Texas right now, look at the radar!

Even though that I strongly wish it was here though. :(


Rain has been all around me all week long but we’ve missed out on most of it. Did manage to pick up .45” though but a lot of other places have had WAY more than that.


Other than the 3 or so minutes of rain a few days ago, NOTHING. I watch the cells pop up all around me, headed my way, then POOF. I have never seen anything like this to be honest. It's frustrating to say the least.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#633 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:37 pm

99 hours out.

Image

>30C in some places at 850mb.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#634 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:43 pm

Tulsa AFD.

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Excessive heat the middle part of next week and a lack of
meaningful rainfall through the next seven days continues to be
the main story in the long range. Thickness values associated
with an expanding ridge and building heat dome are expected to
continue to increase with time along with 850 mb temperatures
approaching 30C by next Tuesday. This will likely result in
widespread afternoon temperatures in the 105-110 degree range on
Tuesday with global ensembles suggesting a near 30 percent chance
of temperatures exceeding 110 across portions of northeast
Oklahoma. The only feature to keep us from a steady climb each day
toward those values is a shortwave trough which digs toward the
middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the weekend.
Guidance continues to suggest enough forcing and pooling of
moisture with the associated boundary to maintain slight chance
PoPs Sunday into Sunday evening those coverage looks to remain
isolated underneath the influence of the ridge. Cloud cover
associated with the approaching wave may enhance cloud cover and
help keep overnight temps from falling too much adding to the
building heat stress. With very dry soil conditions and a
potentially very warm start to the day have kept temperature
forecasts Sunday near those on Saturday. The combination of hot
temperatures and humidity require a Heat Advisory for much of
eastern Oklahoma and the River Valley in western Arkansas on
Saturday. Additional heat headlines including Excessive Heat
Warnings will likely be needed in the coming week as air
temperatures alone exceed criteria.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#635 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2022 6:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:99 hours out.

https://i.imgur.com/70Ad7Il.png

>30C in some places at 850mb.


Just for the record our all time high is 115 from 1936. Even 2011 2012 and 1980 didn't beat it
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#636 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jul 15, 2022 9:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:99 hours out.

https://i.imgur.com/70Ad7Il.png

>30C in some places at 850mb.

Is that the surface or just above it?
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#637 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:27 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:99 hours out.

https://i.imgur.com/70Ad7Il.png

>30C in some places at 850mb.


Just for the record our all time high is 115 from 1936. Even 2011 2012 and 1980 didn't beat it


Yeah. I am thinking top 5 hottest, but probably not a new record. Even in the short-range, models have been too aggressive on temperatures. I am thinking likely highs peaking around 110, but probably not 115+. A record that far back is not likely to break and 1936 was really unique because it was at the peak of the Dust Bowl. This year is dry, but it's not 1936 dry.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#638 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:30 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:99 hours out.

https://i.imgur.com/70Ad7Il.png

>30C in some places at 850mb.

Is that the surface or just above it?


It is a few thousand feet above. Outside of the high elevations if it's going to be 110+, having 850mb above 30C is usually a good indicator.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#639 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:01 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:99 hours out.

https://i.imgur.com/70Ad7Il.png

>30C in some places at 850mb.


Just for the record our all time high is 115 from 1936. Even 2011 2012 and 1980 didn't beat it


Yeah. I am thinking top 5 hottest, but probably not a new record. Even in the short-range, models have been too aggressive on temperatures. I am thinking likely highs peaking around 110, but probably not 115+. A record that far back is not likely to break and 1936 was really unique because it was at the peak of the Dust Bowl. This year is dry, but it's not 1936 dry.


Yeah I don't see it verifying either and that's why... 1936 was such an unusual time. But it'll still be by far the worst heat here since 2011/2012
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#640 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:10 am

Brent wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Just for the record our all time high is 115 from 1936. Even 2011 2012 and 1980 didn't beat it


Yeah. I am thinking top 5 hottest, but probably not a new record. Even in the short-range, models have been too aggressive on temperatures. I am thinking likely highs peaking around 110, but probably not 115+. A record that far back is not likely to break and 1936 was really unique because it was at the peak of the Dust Bowl. This year is dry, but it's not 1936 dry.


Yeah I don't see it verifying either and that's why... 1936 was such an unusual time. But it'll still be by far the worst heat here since 2011/2012


That doesn't make it feel much better :lol:. At the beginning of the month I didn't think DFW would come close to 1980's July 92F average record but here we are almost 91F.
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