Texas Fall 2025

[Brent]

Watched the OKC TV met who was a bit of a weenie last year with his winter predictions and he was pretty anticlimactic about it just average everything at best with better odds to our north and east. He said he doesn't expect as good of a winter as last year either

Also doesn't expect much real potential til closer to January

[rwfromkansas]

That heat island on the NAM seems excessive. But HRRR is warmer. The first freeze often doesn’t “take” but this one seems strong enough to beat the odds.

[Stratton23]

Brent I dont know, their is a pretty good signal that december is going to be cold across the central and eastern US, with some chances for snow, I dont know what hes looking at, but thats what the signs are pointing toward in guidance plus the EPO/WPO are both going negative in late november

[wxman22]

[Stratton23]

the fact some areas could see upper 20’s in N texas for the first freeze of the season is pretty impressive given its just early november and the snowpack across the US is only just starting to expand, GFS/ Euro AIFS coming in potentially MUCH colder around thanksgiving fwiw

[Ntxw]

What looks to transpire is the Greenland side block will gradually retrograde and shift to the Alaskan side. That's towards the end of the month into early December so a more classic -EPO blue norther type cold air mass during that time frame.

The past couple of years I was concerned of quality of cold early season, while that's always in play, not as pessimistic this year. It's not all fantasy stuff, some of it makes sense.

[gpsnowman]

Winds are picking up out of the north at work. Think the front Is finally here

[Brent]

Winds are picking up out of the north at work. Think the front Is finally here

Yeah it passed here a few hours ago. Was pretty windy for a bit but it's calmer now and really not that cold yet

The stronger push of cold air is towards morning here. I'm still seeing people trying to talk about maybe some flurries nearby when it comes through probably more in the higher elevations in Arkansas I highly doubt there's anything in the metro but still. Even the NWS mentioned it in the AFD

This front is pretty legit for so early on I will say

[Quixotic]

Get the cold here. Then we’ll worry about the rest. Peace.

[Brent]

Get the cold here. Then we’ll worry about the rest. Peace.

Yeah to be fair there's a ton of places way up north that are just now even getting their first snowfall at all... Iowa... Illinois... Like we can't expect much here when that happens. The fact there's even a chance of a flake around here is crazy

It's so early

We just need the pattern to shift a little west and build it up over the Rockies to set us up

I will say that after the torch through next weekend the apps do show temps dropping slowly towards normal and more active as we head into Thanksgiving week. Not cold but not warm either

[Stratton23]

Looking at the teleconnection charts and ensembles with their respective 500 mb height patterns , their is good agreement that the EPO/ WPO will tank and stay negative for a long duration, this looks to occur around thanksgiving , of course as NTXW as said, we need to see what kind of cold air builds up in our source region over the next 2-3 weeks, could be significant cold to end off november and going into december potentially

[snownado]

On an unrelated note, Chicago could potentially be looking at a historic Lake Effect Snow event over the next 48 hours. Besides it being so early in the season, the NWS is talking aboout snowfall being measured in feet with 3-5"+/hour rates, hail, thunder/lightning and impossible travel.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the teleconnection charts and ensembles with their respective 500 mb height patterns , their is good agreement that the EPO/ WPO will tank and stay negative for a long duration, this looks to occur around thanksgiving , of course as NTXW as said, we need to see what kind of cold air builds up in our source region over the next 2-3 weeks, could be significant cold to end off november and going into december potentially

I think there could be a significant threat of wintry weather, cold and possible winter storm between turkey time and opening of December. Ensembles and weeklies from Euro paint a cold period centered in the middle of the continent to the Lakes with favorable 500mb weakness across the US.

[Brent]

On an unrelated note, Chicago could potentially be looking at an historic Lake Effect Snow event over the next 48 hours. Besides it being so early in the season, the NWS is talking aboout snowfall being measured in feet with 3-5"+/hour rates, hail, thunder/lightning and impossible travel.

Yes I'm watching this one closely to see if it actually pans out

Understand this is like the first flakes Chicago is even getting and it may be a near blizzard...

[wxman22]

A more active pattern looks to begin around the 15th and beyond. With possibly multiple storm systems ejecting over the plains.There's even been an on and off signal in the models of a winterstorm in the central/southern plains around the 20th or so LOL.

[gpsnowman]

A more active pattern looks to begin around the 15th and beyond. With possibly multiple storm systems ejecting over the plains.There's even been an on and off signal in the models of a winterstorm in the central/southern plains around the 20th or so LOL.

https://i.ibb.co/JFpjhwck/814prcp-new.gif

This map is prettier than any cold outbreak currently. Let's get some rain and storms before winter sets in.

[Ntxw]

A more active pattern looks to begin around the 15th and beyond. With possibly multiple storm systems ejecting over the plains.There's even been an on and off signal in the models of a winterstorm in the central/southern plains around the 20th or so LOL.

https://i.ibb.co/JFpjhwck/814prcp-new.gif

Pattern looks blocky with -NAO. We'll be laying some early season snow cover in the high plains with several blizzards, at least in model world it looks like.

What a fast start to season blocking regime.

[TomballEd]

Get the cold here. Then we’ll worry about the rest. Peace.

I detest cold weather. Upper 20s I can handle, anything else threatens my plants. I will happily accept mid 20s if there is a well predicted ice or snow event which cancels school the evening before and lets me sleep in. I teach high school, I'm up before 5 am for 6:15 morning duty and first class at 7.

It was 130 years ago, pretty clear it has warmed since then, but the 1895 storm (image from Space City Weather) would cancel school for several days in the Houston area. Some calcium chloride brine spreaders, no plows. TEA gave a waiver on required school days after Harvey and 2021.

[Stratton23]

Eric Webb has a good read on X about this upcoming pattern change, says we are heading toward a severe -AO/-NAO/-EPO blocking pattern that starts before thanksgiving and lasts through the entirety of december, for those that want rain chances in texas, this is a very good pattern that could lead to enhanced rain opportunities for texas, but also much colder weather as well, can’t complain about that at all!

[Texoz]

Eric Webb has a good read on X about this upcoming pattern change, says we are heading toward a severe -AO/-NAO/-EPO blocking pattern that starts before thanksgiving and lasts through the entirety of december, for those that want rain chances in texas, this is a very good pattern that could lead to enhanced rain opportunities for texas, but also much colder weather as well, can’t complain about that at all!

A good portion of central, west and south Texas still need a lot of rain to catch up.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/currentm ... or.aspx?TX