Texas Spring 2026

[Kirby68]

Well, we're in for an extremely long month

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif

What does this mean?

[HockeyTx82]

Saturday is getting into range of the CAM’s The RRFS shows supercells developing along the dryline in west Texas and congealing into a MCS overnight. Storms move out fast enough for the atmosphere to recover by Sunday evening. And supercells start to develop again at the end of the run Sunday.

https://i.postimg.cc/rwT0GGc2/IMG_0748.png
https://i.postimg.cc/MK6Xv6YJ/IMG-0750.png
https://i.postimg.cc/g0T3KwNH/IMG-0749.png

Overall how does this sound from a safety standpoint.

I've got some camping plans around Bridgeport Friday-Sunday early morning. Think we will be okay? I don't mind the rain, just want to avoid the bad stuff.

[Brent]

If I see one more person bring up 2011 I'm gonna snap

[HockeyTx82]

Hey everyone, what was that year that everyone keeps bringing up and comparing this upcoming weekend and next week to?

[wxman22]

Saturday is getting into range of the CAM’s The RRFS shows supercells developing along the dryline in west Texas and congealing into a MCS overnight. Storms move out fast enough for the atmosphere to recover by Sunday evening. And supercells start to develop again at the end of the run Sunday.

https://i.postimg.cc/rwT0GGc2/IMG_0748.png
https://i.postimg.cc/MK6Xv6YJ/IMG-0750.png
https://i.postimg.cc/g0T3KwNH/IMG-0749.png

Overall how does this sound from a safety standpoint.

I've got some camping plans around Bridgeport Friday-Sunday early morning. Think we will be okay? I don't mind the rain, just want to avoid the bad stuff.

For right now it looks like the strong storms will stay out in west Texas on Saturday.Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning looks wet though as the storms in west Texas congeal into a MCS and move east.But the storms should be in a weakening phase by then. Sunday afternoon/evening though could bring strong storms into north & central Texas.Depending how fast the morning complex moves out will determine how much the atmosphere can recover for Sunday evening. Subject to change of course. The CAMS will give more details on timing of storms and initiation.

[Iceresistance]

Well, we're in for an extremely long month

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif

What does this mean?

Prolonged -PNA pattern showing Eastern Ridge, extended severe sequence possible

[Kirby68]

Well, we're in for an extremely long month

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bq9ZR.gif

What does this mean?

Prolonged -PNA pattern showing Eastern Ridge, extended severe

sequence possible

Thanks

[wxman22]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight Risk across West Texas into the
Red River Valley.

An axis of above average PWATS is expected to move across the
Southern and Central Plains on Saturday. Upper dynamics will
support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast,
as well as a shortwave trough traversing the High Plains. As
ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong
southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains and
Texas to advect moisture and instability in the area. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection. The QPF footprint in the
afternoon cycle has a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
was introduced from West Texas to the Red River Valley on Saturday
for the potential of scattered flash flooding.

Wilder/Oravec

[wxman22]

Very busy week ahead…

[TomballEd]

If I see one more person bring up 2011 I'm gonna snap

2011 was a drought year but the ENSO state this summer should be completely different than 2011.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks to stay west of DFW most days now. This is why you don’t pay attention until a few days out. It also implies MCS stuff since it’s on the far eastern end. Limited tornado potential etc.

[wxman22]

12z HRRR

[HockeyTx82]

12z HRRR

https://i.postimg.cc/bNz1xrM9/floop-hrrr-2026041012-refcmp-us-sc.gif

So some pop up storms for DFW, then a dying line moving in early Sunday morning? Looks like the severe stuff is holding off until maybe Sunday afternoon?

[TomballEd]

Nothing organzed but 3 km NAM and HRRR at 12Z see scattered showers and storms in whatever we call near and S of I-10 between San Antonio and Houston. Very scattered but some lucky people will get two inches or more on both models. Most won't.

I'm not sure what the area W of El Campo and around Shiner is called. Pretty sure there is no SE Central Texas. I could be wrong.

[TomballEd]

I'm not the only one noticing the SETX screw zone. OTOH, if we can get an inch per week for a couple of months the fire risk (I remember 2011) would be pretty low. Looks good for at least easing the drought in SCTX. https://spacecityweather.com/will-houston-actually-get-the-forecast-rain-over-the-next-several-days/

[Ntxw]

Through the first 9 days, DFW is 4.7F above normal in April so far which at the moment isn't top 10. So there's that .

[wxman22]

Nothing organzed but 3 km NAM and HRRR at 12Z see scattered showers and storms in whatever we call near and S of I-10 between San Antonio and Houston. Very scattered but some lucky people will get two inches or more on both models. Most won't.

I'm not sure what the area W of El Campo and around Shiner is called. Pretty sure there is no SE Central Texas. I could be wrong.

It’s usually called the coastal bend region.

[Stratton23]

FINALLY! Im getting a good soaking thunderstorm, seems like everything lately has gone around my area , nice to see that fortune change for once lol

[Brent]

Already storming here too on the very first day of rain chances much less the other stuff that everyone has lost their mind over

[txtwister78]

SPC Day 3 outlook (Sunday) has upgraded the slight risk further south into the SC TX region and southern Edwards Plateau.

Discussion mentions the potential for an additional upgrade should the Euro pan out via additional CAM guidance.