TD 10...Back Again

[wxman57]

and actually ive been tracking the low before the new thunderstorm and i have yet to see wnw at 300

What do you estimate the center position to be at 12Z and again on the last visible image? See my edited positions above.

read my post above wxman....i lost my respect for you when you accused me of having a desire for a landfall, and one who has experienced the hell of ivan...i would never have a "desire" for a landfall...i will not get into a debate with you sense you cannot have a civil discussion of movement without accusing people , of which you dont know and dont know there experiences, of having "desires"

Perhaps you have a fear of landfall, rather than a desire. As you say, I don't know you. One way or the other, you do appear to be biased toward forecasting systems to move west toward Florida. One of the hardest things to do is to put aside any preconceived notions of movement and just look at the facts. When I was young, everything was heading right at me. Can't afford to do that now.

[Ivanhater]

actually i post what i see....if i see it moving east i would post i see it moving east.... as a meteorology student(starting in the fall) i make my personal forecasts and post what i see at the time...no desire..no bias...just what is happening as i see it

[WeatherEmperor]

Well umm before this escalades into a major debate here I must say wxman57, the last time Ivanhater was correct in that the storm was moving W(ever so slightly north of W) where you said it wasnt moving W and Ivanhater ended up being correct. You were also incorrect serveral times in respect to the center of Irene. You at one point had it too far north, when it ended up not being where you thought it would be. Also a couple days ago you drew up a few arrows on a zoomed up image of remnants of TD10 showing that there was outflow coming from the LLC of TD10 and said it was probably going to die and that has never happened. Point here is some of us have made some mistakes in relation to these tropical systems. Lets just see what happens to this thing in the future but I would have to give a slight edge to Ivanhater at the moment because although he hasnt been 100% accurate, it has been slightly better then you. Im just saying this I dont want an argument thats just what I see.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

calm down folks...lol...I just sat down and looked at the loop...its not moving DUE WEST...just north of west....i would say 280...on a smoothed track

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok now,

We need to back it down a peg. My company does alot of work for NOAA and I have been in many a NWS office and the NHC. I am not a pro, but I can tell you the folks that do this for a living don't stare at internet loops like I do to track motion. So I will defer to the pros on motion and storm center.

We all are fervent storm trackers here who are bit more in tune to the motion and nature of these systems than most. I actually like the disagreements on forcasts and when I or another non-met posts something in error I learn from it.

I am an engineer, so I am sure I would not want a Meterologist to design a system for me, likewise I would not want to be responsible for decisions made on my forecasts.

I respect all who post substantive info and thoughts on the tropics regardess of skill. Even most of the non-pro Mets here act like pros. Lets keep this forum that way.

...climbs down from soapbox

[wxmann_91]

JFYI, this thing is still not a TD and IMO there is only a 50% chance that this will become one.

[Scorpion]

50% chance? Care to enlighten us?

[WeatherEmperor]

50% chance? Care to enlighten us?

lol......nice.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system overall looks the worst since Sunday morning. When they downgraded it. The LLC is starting to become disorganized with no more burst of convection flaring up.

[wxman57]

JFYI, this thing is still not a TD and IMO there is only a 50% chance that this will become one.

That's about what I was estimating - 50-60% shot of becoming a TS (not a depression). But if it becomes organized enough to be a TD, then TS chances are high. May not do much for 2-3 days though.

[elysium]

Matt, what are you talking about? TD 10 is the best it's ever looked right now. The NHC has nailed nailed down the time frame in which TD 10 is forecasted to intensify at a more robust level very well. Actually, I didn't think we would see it regenerate as soon as the NHC had indicated was possible, however, looking at the imagery, the NHC is pretty much right on target.

This is the very best TD 10 has ever presented on satellite imagery. It looks like the NHC will be giving some indication of when they may give the upgrade this 11 pm.

By the way, the GFS 18Z is the best model guidance I have seen so far on the projected trough coming off the east coast on day 5. They have it quickly exiting. How does that effect the chances of it lifting TD 10 out and recurving out to sea? Does anyone here have any idea?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm talking about it was bursting a deep area of convection for over 2 days. Even so it was sheared it had a well defined LLC. It looked better then Alison,Arlene,Grace, in many more. Now the LLC is getting disorganized with only spotty convection. The SAL surge is moving quickly westward in if it catches it this system is over.

In also do not use t numbers for a sheared system. They don't do so good. Quickscats shown it had a well defined LLC plus 40 knot flags at a few points in this storms life.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

It looks bad right now. Theres many a tropical storm that need to be down graded to depressions. That all that needs to be said(Maybe even distrabanes).

My option of it any way.

[gkrangers]

Ok, I just have to say, the 18z GFS is never the best at ANYTHING.

[BensonTCwatcher]

This thing should already be dead...and yet like Irene lives to burst another day. The ULL to the N is what is inhibiting devlopment and horiz shear. vert shear is still decreasing. I'll wager 65% survival to TD, TS in 48 hours, hurricane in 120.

[jrod]

It has looked like poo all day. There is still some potential to develop IMO, but very unlikely in the next day or so. I am suprised it has been such a weak system, I thought for sure the conditions would have been in favor of this thing stregthening, especially the way it looked yesterday evening.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Is there even a circulation left???

[Sanibel]

its already in the process of another flare

So far no.

[flashflood]

Speaking of the ULL. What would happen to XT10 if it caught up the center of the ULL. It looks like they are moving in tandem to the WNW, but say the ULL stops and XT10 goes under it.

[gkrangers]

Speaking of the ULL. What would happen to XT10 if it caught up the center of the ULL. It looks like they are moving in tandem to the WNW, but say the ULL stops and XT10 goes under it.

Goodbye 10L.

There is a very broad circulation right now...doesn't seem very impressive.

[cycloneye]

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS NEAR 16N57W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10
KT. THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N64W TO ITS NW. THE
24 HOUR FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PRESENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 54W-58W

The above remarks from 8 PM Discussion from TPC which not bring anything that opens eyebrows about ex10.