ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

I would think this too, but the models have been wrong time and time again. Is the NHC going to stick with the models in hopes that Emily finally starts turning?

The NHC track does need to shift abit more to the west, at least in the short term anyway.

Still heading westwards for now looking at the sat.loops...

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031940
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 20 20110803
193030 1603N 07126W 8432 01557 0074 +192 +071 349009 010 018 000 00
193100 1604N 07125W 8429 01556 0073 +192 +071 349008 009 016 000 00
193130 1605N 07124W 8430 01555 0072 +194 +071 346007 008 016 000 00
193200 1606N 07123W 8431 01555 0072 +190 +071 342008 008 016 000 00
193230 1606N 07123W 8431 01555 0073 +189 +071 338009 009 014 000 00
193300 1608N 07121W 8432 01554 0075 +186 +071 344008 009 016 000 00
193330 1609N 07119W 8429 01554 0074 +186 +070 343007 007 015 000 03
193400 1611N 07118W 8430 01552 0072 +188 +070 343008 008 015 000 00
193430 1612N 07117W 8432 01549 0072 +187 +070 343009 009 015 000 00
193500 1613N 07116W 8429 01553 0072 +187 +070 335008 009 016 000 00
193530 1614N 07115W 8426 01557 0073 +186 +070 321008 008 013 000 00
193600 1615N 07113W 8433 01550 0074 +185 +070 326008 008 016 000 03
193630 1616N 07112W 8429 01552 0074 +185 +070 331008 008 017 000 00
193700 1618N 07111W 8430 01552 0073 +185 +070 341009 010 017 000 00
193730 1619N 07110W 8429 01553 0072 +188 +071 350011 012 015 000 00
193800 1620N 07109W 8430 01553 0070 +190 +071 354011 012 015 001 00
193830 1621N 07108W 8432 01551 0072 +186 +071 351011 012 016 000 00
193900 1622N 07106W 8428 01554 0072 +185 +071 344011 011 016 000 00
193930 1623N 07105W 8430 01551 0070 +186 +071 341009 010 016 000 00
194000 1624N 07104W 8429 01551 0070 +190 +071 338009 009 019 001 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[KWT]

Aric, yeah that feature has been there ever since it first formed, its a really wierd feature because as you say its always found in exactly the same spot every day...odd!

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031950
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 21 20110803
194030 1626N 07103W 8429 01553 0069 +190 +071 336007 008 019 000 00
194100 1627N 07102W 8433 01545 0067 +190 +071 338009 009 020 000 00
194130 1628N 07100W 8430 01549 0067 +190 +072 349011 013 021 000 00
194200 1629N 07059W 8430 01548 0068 +190 +072 348014 014 021 000 00
194230 1630N 07058W 8428 01552 0065 +192 +072 345014 014 022 000 00
194300 1631N 07057W 8430 01548 0065 +190 +072 339013 013 022 000 00
194330 1632N 07056W 8432 01547 0070 +184 +072 354012 013 025 002 00
194400 1634N 07055W 8429 01549 0073 +180 +072 354015 015 025 001 00
194430 1635N 07053W 8433 01547 0072 +180 +071 350013 014 025 001 03
194500 1636N 07052W 8424 01554 0071 +181 +070 352016 017 025 000 03
194530 1636N 07050W 8430 01547 0066 +187 +070 360019 020 026 000 03
194600 1636N 07049W 8426 01549 0066 +186 +071 359018 019 028 001 00
194630 1636N 07047W 8431 01545 0065 +185 +072 355017 018 029 001 00
194700 1636N 07045W 8430 01545 0064 +186 +072 353019 019 028 001 00
194730 1636N 07043W 8429 01545 0064 +185 +073 351019 019 028 000 00
194800 1636N 07042W 8432 01541 0061 +189 +074 346017 019 028 000 03
194830 1637N 07040W 8430 01541 0057 +193 +075 336013 013 030 000 00
194900 1638N 07038W 8428 01544 0054 +195 +075 339008 011 030 000 03
194930 1638N 07037W 8430 01542 0049 +202 +076 329005 006 032 001 03
195000 1639N 07035W 8432 01538 0047 +201 +078 313003 005 032 001 03
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[pavelbure224]

Anything with the Euro this afternoon?

[Macrocane]

Very odd indeed, maybe this is a dumb question but, could that feature be the remnants of the twin wave we saw on Sunday?

[Evil Jeremy]

Anything with the Euro this afternoon?

Either a SE Florida hit, or very close call at 72 hours out:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[Blown Away]

If Emily continues W and shoots between E Haiti and W Cuba, what's everbody's thoughts on Emily intensifying quicker?

[KWT]

Looks like Emily's LLC has slowed right down, maybe a sign that the system is about ti pick up a different steering current and heading WNW from now?

We'll have to see...

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032000
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 22 20110803
195030 1640N 07034W 8432 01534 0048 +199 +078 309003 003 022 000 00
195100 1641N 07033W 8433 01533 0043 +203 +078 295003 003 020 000 00
195130 1643N 07032W 8432 01533 0040 +206 +078 304003 003 017 000 00
195200 1644N 07031W 8432 01533 0039 +207 +078 286004 004 018 000 00
195230 1645N 07030W 8429 01539 0038 +210 +078 272005 005 018 002 03
195300 1647N 07029W 8433 01531 0038 +207 +078 285004 004 019 000 03
195330 1649N 07029W 8428 01534 0038 +205 +078 267002 003 018 000 00
195400 1650N 07029W 8433 01530 0043 +197 +078 103005 005 019 000 00
195430 1652N 07028W 8430 01532 0046 +191 +078 095009 011 018 000 00
195500 1654N 07028W 8432 01531 0042 +200 +078 084015 017 018 000 00
195530 1655N 07028W 8450 01512 0043 +199 +077 086018 019 026 001 00
195600 1657N 07028W 8483 01477 0048 +192 +078 097020 021 030 004 00
195630 1658N 07028W 8451 01511 0062 +168 +076 092018 020 043 028 03
195700 1700N 07029W 8434 01533 0069 +161 +070 091020 022 049 019 03
195730 1702N 07029W 8430 01538 0065 +174 +066 086023 025 035 006 00
195800 1703N 07029W 8417 01553 0049 +201 +064 074023 026 033 004 03
195830 1705N 07029W 8431 01539 0048 +204 +066 078023 024 029 000 00
195900 1707N 07028W 8432 01537 0049 +202 +069 085023 024 031 001 00
195930 1708N 07028W 8428 01544 0055 +193 +072 090024 024 038 000 03
200000 1710N 07028W 8431 01541 0058 +193 +073 089024 024 038 000 00
$$
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[jonj2040]

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[Gustywind]

Steady weakening trend seems to continue for TS Emily given SSD T NUMBERS...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 16.8N 70.3W T2.0/3.0 EMILY
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

So why is the pressure dropping? This is one strange system.

Since its debuts Emily may be a strange one


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC has no choice but to nudge the cone to the left a little on the next advisory, especially because the Euro has shifted west also which should influence the TVCN track.

Also, it is slightly tracking left of the forecast points this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC has no choice but to nudge the cone to the left a little on the next advisory, especially because the Euro has shifted west also which should influence the TVCN track.

Also, it is slightly tracking left of the forecast points this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

guess it wobbled a little south of west on that pass
lol

[Gustywind]

Steady weakening trend seems to continue for TS Emily given SSD T NUMBERS...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 16.8N 70.3W T2.0/3.0 EMILY
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

So why is the pressure dropping? This is one strange system.

Since its debuts Emily may be a strange one


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KWT]

Pass fix was roughly 305 degrees...so at the very least a wobble of to the WNW...also much slower motion...

Think its about to pick up some latitude at last...

[gatorcane]

Pass fix was roughly 305 degrees...so at the very least a wobble of to the WNW...also much slower motion...

Think its about to pick up some latitude at last...

When I loop this image, I see a little WSW wobble, maybe that is what Aric is referring to:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html