ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Phil Ferro, local WSVN 7 met, just said his only concern is that Irene is a large storm, and to imagine a large tanker in the water "if you will". If you ask that tanker to turn right, it takes a long time to do it, due to the size it can't turn quickly. He said if it takes a long time for Irene to turn "we may feel more of this than we'd like". Just figured I'd pass that on....

Is this guy a talking head or is he fairly well respected withing the meteorology field?

Ferro is decent, if a little eccentric (just how we like our weathermen).

http://philfactor-phil.blogspot.com/

[cpdaman]

and just like that, it stair stepped north the past half hour...will see on the 3:15 frame

that appears to be almost a due NW wobble

but on another note look at the 330 frame DUE west if not 265 wobble

[Dave]

828
URNT15 KNHC 250347
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 41 20110825
033800 2245N 07423W 6969 03090 9992 +081 //// 211068 070 048 004 05
033830 2243N 07422W 6971 03090 9988 +089 +080 214069 070 047 003 00
033900 2242N 07421W 6966 03101 9998 +085 +077 215067 068 045 003 03
033930 2241N 07420W 6968 03101 9995 +090 +073 215067 067 044 004 03
034000 2240N 07419W 6966 03105 9996 +091 +072 215067 068 049 003 03
034030 2239N 07418W 6968 03101 9995 +092 +071 215066 067 /// /// 03
034100 2238N 07416W 6969 03104 9996 +094 +070 212063 064 043 003 00
034130 2236N 07415W 6967 03107 0001 +089 +079 211061 061 040 004 00
034200 2235N 07414W 6967 03107 0011 +083 //// 209058 061 038 005 05
034230 2234N 07413W 6969 03109 0012 +084 //// 206058 059 038 004 05
034300 2233N 07412W 6965 03116 0011 +086 //// 206062 063 038 005 01
034330 2232N 07411W 6967 03116 0012 +090 +088 208063 064 038 002 03
034400 2232N 07409W 6970 03120 0019 +088 +085 206063 063 /// /// 03
034430 2234N 07408W 6970 03120 0017 +088 +081 203062 063 /// /// 03
034500 2236N 07409W 6970 03112 0009 +090 +082 202060 061 035 005 03
034530 2238N 07410W 6971 03105 0006 +089 +084 200059 059 037 005 03
034600 2240N 07410W 6968 03107 0003 +087 +086 203059 060 048 001 03
034630 2242N 07410W 6967 03090 9983 +087 //// 204061 062 /// /// 05
034700 2245N 07410W 6968 03101 9990 +090 +077 205063 064 /// /// 03
034730 2247N 07411W 6967 03103 9996 +091 +073 207067 068 040 004 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[boca]

and just like that, it stair stepped north the past half hour...will see on the 3:15 frame

that appears to be almost a due NW wobble

but on another note look at the 330 frame DUE west if not 265 wobble

What site are you on that you see this?

[SouthernBreeze]

GFS just starting to roll in - initialized a little closer to FL.....

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

But you're missing the point, since they have TS warnings since this afternoon for 20 miles off the coast, they must take the fact that either winds are going to be within that window on the west side into consideration or not. obviously they did.

Marine warnings exist for mariners, who often travel on boats without any comms. Say a captain is out there fishing and decides to head to the Bahamas right now? If his boat is decent he would receive the warning over his WX radio, or see it on fax, etc and know not to do that. It doesn't spring local governments into action as it does with land warnings. There really is no cost with this. I don't think they actually expected TS winds anywhere near the coast to justify the marine warning.

[Sanibel]

Hmm, might be a touch west of trop points.

[CronkPSU]

and just like that, it stair stepped north the past half hour...will see on the 3:15 frame

that appears to be almost a due NW wobble

but on another note look at the 330 frame DUE west if not 265 wobble

What site are you on that you see this?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250357
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 42 20110825
034800 2249N 07411W 6966 03103 9997 +089 +073 206068 069 039 006 00
034830 2251N 07411W 6967 03100 9995 +090 +072 204069 069 040 005 00
034900 2254N 07411W 6971 03097 9997 +090 +070 204066 067 041 005 00
034930 2256N 07411W 6967 03099 9996 +088 +068 202066 066 042 005 03
035000 2258N 07412W 6970 03093 9994 +087 +072 202067 067 043 004 03
035030 2300N 07412W 6967 03094 9994 +085 +083 198068 068 043 003 00
035100 2303N 07412W 6968 03093 9997 +081 //// 198068 069 044 003 05
035130 2305N 07412W 6968 03089 9992 +084 //// 197069 070 046 004 01
035200 2307N 07412W 6966 03094 //// +073 //// 192070 071 047 006 01
035230 2310N 07413W 6969 03087 //// +068 //// 193068 069 047 008 05
035300 2312N 07413W 6974 03081 //// +072 //// 194061 067 042 014 05
035330 2314N 07413W 6973 03081 //// +072 //// 189075 077 045 010 05
035400 2317N 07413W 6969 03085 //// +069 //// 192070 071 046 012 01
035430 2319N 07413W 6968 03083 //// +061 //// 192069 070 047 015 01
035500 2321N 07414W 6965 03085 //// +066 //// 193073 075 047 013 01
035530 2324N 07414W 6978 03066 //// +065 //// 193073 074 048 014 01
035600 2326N 07414W 6962 03089 //// +066 //// 187064 068 050 019 01
035630 2328N 07414W 6961 03088 //// +073 //// 191064 066 050 015 01
035700 2330N 07414W 6970 03079 9980 +080 //// 191067 069 051 012 01
035730 2333N 07415W 6965 03088 //// +071 //// 190071 071 052 012 01
$$

[SootyTern]

Weird! I went to http://www.newyorktimes.com
and there's nothing about hurricane Irene on the front page..... Really?????

Are you kidding?! Steve Jobs stepped down! That's way more important and newsworthy than some hurricane

I remember paying waay more attention to some Hurricane Opal bombing out in the Gulf (was in Gulf Shores AL at the time; Oct 4 1995) than some trial for some guy who killed his girlfriend. Pays to be a weather geek sometimes.

[kamqercam]

check out this photo from Mike Theiss who is currently riding out Irene in the Bahamas!

http://prntscr.com/2rry2

[WxGuy1]

I urge everyone to look at the latest Forecast Advisory when talking about whether TS or hurricane-force winds extend to XX location. In this particular instance:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

So, the "tropical storm forecast winds extend to 220 miles" business only is true in the northeast quad of the storm (and probably only a limited part of that quad). For those in Florida, the TS-force winds extend 100-130 miles SW and NW of the center. Since 35-45 kt winds typically don't produce much damage, let's use the "50 kt" ranges to estimate at the areas that will see potentially-damaging winds. In this case, those winds (again, that's still TS force, but at least 50 kt has decent potential to cause minor damage) only extent 50 and 80 kt from the center. The actual hurricane-force winds only extend 25 and 50 miles southeast and northwest, respectively, of the center.

If we look at the wind speed probabilities (latest version here), we see that the NHC is only giving a 10% prob of seeing >34 kt winds at Cocoa Beach and ~15% at W Palm Beach and Ft. Pierce.

[KBBOCA]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

I can confirm that. I'm currently in upstate NY (about an hour north of Albany), having driven yesterday and today from Charlotte, NC. In Charlotte folks were VERY aware of Irene and the news was full of the storm.

But the earthquake yesterday TOTALLY eclipsed all talk of Irene in Washington, Baltimore, the Philly area and the NY metro area. I was just SHOCKED in 5 hours of driving from DC to NJ yesterday listening to news on the radio that I heard almost NO mention of Irene on any radio station in those metro areas. It was all earthquake talk. Granted, the storm was 4-5 days out still.... but even today, as I talked with friends from Long Island, folks are VERY laid back about Irene, very much still waiting to see what happens, thinking the forecast will change, and the media are wanting to be careful not to cry wolf.

I'm VERY concerned about the attitude I'm seeing and hearing....

[Blown Away]

Those wobbles make you nervous for a few moments, I mean it's looks like Irene is taking a hard left turn but I'm sure it will average out to NW.

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it looks like Irene is making a hard west wobble due to the eyewall replacement cycle. It appears the inner eye is located in the SW corner of the forming outer eye. The new eye appears to be quite massive. It reminds me of Wilma's large eye after she left the Yucatan.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250407
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 43 20110825
035800 2335N 07415W 6954 03098 //// +067 //// 179071 073 050 017 05
035830 2337N 07415W 6971 03076 //// +074 //// 183071 071 048 013 05
035900 2340N 07414W 6965 03088 9987 +080 //// 183073 074 /// /// 05
035930 2341N 07413W 6972 03076 9971 +091 +083 188073 076 051 015 03
040000 2342N 07411W 6963 03095 //// +068 //// 186073 078 049 017 05
040030 2344N 07410W 6962 03085 //// +074 //// 178075 079 /// /// 05
040100 2347N 07410W 6964 03085 //// +058 //// 171084 085 051 020 05
040130 2349N 07411W 6965 03086 //// +055 //// 169074 078 053 021 05
040200 2351N 07411W 6964 03090 //// +064 //// 172070 074 053 014 05
040230 2354N 07411W 6968 03084 //// +069 //// 171073 075 048 013 01
040300 2356N 07411W 6968 03087 //// +067 //// 170073 076 046 014 05
040330 2359N 07411W 6964 03090 0001 +065 //// 164074 077 047 010 05
040400 2401N 07412W 6974 03082 9995 +078 //// 162070 071 046 010 05
040430 2403N 07412W 6971 03083 0002 +069 //// 164073 076 048 016 05
040500 2406N 07412W 6964 03091 9988 +083 //// 159075 077 049 009 01
040530 2408N 07412W 6967 03089 9997 +076 //// 159075 077 050 008 05
040600 2410N 07413W 6971 03083 9987 +084 //// 163069 072 052 006 01
040630 2413N 07413W 6968 03087 9989 +073 //// 161069 070 051 008 05
040700 2415N 07413W 6956 03102 //// +070 //// 162069 069 051 012 01
040730 2417N 07413W 6980 03070 //// +066 //// 158072 074 052 011 01
$$

[AdamFirst]

My sister lives in Newport News and she's thinking of evacuation.

At this point, would Richmond be far enough west to escape the worst of the storm?

[Dave]