Caribbean - Central America Weather

[kungfut]

any new info or tracks???

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281140
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather services: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl is becoming better and better organized this morning and satellite estimates indicates that Earl is a 60 mph tropical storm. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for the next few days and I expect Earl to become a hurricane by late tonight or on Sunday. After that, further strengthening is likely and Earl will reach Category 3 strength by Tuesday morning and possibly Category 4 strength by Wednesday morning.

Earl is tracking due west at a forward speed of 21 mph this morning. A ridge of high pressure located to the north of the storm will keep Earl on a westward track throughout this weekend. By about Monday, Earl is expected to start feeling the weakness that will be left behind by Danielle. This weakness will be gradually weakening, but should still be enough to turn Earl more to the northwest. Now, how far west will Earl track before the next trough of low pressure tracks off of the US East Coast? The GFS model is much further west than the European model. The GFS model forecasts a significant threat to the outer banks of North Carolina late next week. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts a threat to Bermuda around Wednesday. It should be noted that the Canadian model turns Earl due north around 70 or 71 West Longitude; however, it does forecast a hit on Nova Scotia late next week.

My take is that the GFS model may be incorrect as it continues to try to merge 97L and Earl together and this is unrealistic. I am leaning much more closely with a blend between the European model and the Canadian model which would likely mean Earl will turn north at around 69 or 70 West Longitude around the middle part of next week and Earl could come rather close to Nova Scotia late next week. I do not foresee Earl making landfall on the US mainland.

Ok, back to the short term prospects. It is looking more and more likely that Earl will impact the islands of the northeast Caribbean. Those of you in the northern Leeward Islands from about Antigua and points north be prepared for hurricane watches and warnings to be issued sometime today or tonight. Earl is expected to impact the northeast Caribbean from Sunday night into much of Monday. It is not out of the question that Earl does not gain very much latitude before reaching the northeast Caribbean Islands and it is looking more and more likely that the northeast Caribbean Islands will experience a direct hit by Earl. So, all interests in the northeast Caribbean should prepare for hurricane conditions from Sunday night into Monday.

[Gustywind]

Earl continuing to race westward closely from the Lesser Antilles...

[bvigal]

Some in E Caribbean might also want to look at WeatherCarib.com. I live here, have been doing Caribbean weather since before wunderground and all the others (except David Jones) paid any attention to this area, and spend at least 3 hrs every day, 365 days a year looking at every piece of data that effects the eastern Caribbean, and have a massive database going back years to prove it. My biggest concern is marine industry and safety of boaters and beach-goers. Many here and in NOAA value my opinion, I just like to keep a low profile. Have been on phone already this a.m. with several marine businesses who have to make decisions soon. Many linked products only available via the url, click on "Quick Info" to jump to the local forecast info. http://www.weathercarib.com Today have some pics and info from Omar, which many underestimated, perhaps appropo with Earl.

[msbee]

good web site bvigal
thanks

now back to Crownweather report. he says:

"It is not out of the question that Earl does not gain very much latitude before reaching the northeast Caribbean Islands and it is looking more and more likely that the northeast Caribbean Islands will experience a direct hit by Earl."

what is everyone else's take on this?

Barbara

[Patti]

Hi everyone! Barbara this is very alarming and we have begun to board up just in case. filled up tank with gas and off to get more supplies. I am very worried about all the election boards up right now as this could cause a lot of damage.
PS - It was very nice to meet you at the Taste of SXM.

[Gustywind]

Some in E Caribbean might also want to look at WeatherCarib.com. I live here, have been doing Caribbean weather since before wunderground and all the others (except David Jones) paid any attention to this area, and spend at least 3 hrs every day, 365 days a year looking at every piece of data that effects the eastern Caribbean, and have a massive database going back years to prove it. My biggest concern is marine industry and safety of boaters and beach-goers. Many here and in NOAA value my opinion, I just like to keep a low profile. Have been on phone already this a.m. with several marine businesses who have to make decisions soon. Many linked products only available via the url, click on "Quick Info" to jump to the local forecast info. http://www.weathercarib.com Today have some pics and info from Omar, which many underestimated, perhaps appropo with Earl.

Excellent website , good job as usual Bvigal

[cycloneye]

[summersquall]

Some in E Caribbean might also want to look at WeatherCarib.com. I live here, have been doing Caribbean weather since before wunderground and all the others (except David Jones) paid any attention to this area, and spend at least 3 hrs every day, 365 days a year looking at every piece of data that effects the eastern Caribbean, and have a massive database going back years to prove it. My biggest concern is marine industry and safety of boaters and beach-goers. Many here and in NOAA value my opinion, I just like to keep a low profile. Have been on phone already this a.m. with several marine businesses who have to make decisions soon. Many linked products only available via the url, click on "Quick Info" to jump to the local forecast info. http://www.weathercarib.com Today have some pics and info from Omar, which many underestimated, perhaps appropo with Earl.

Very informative site bvigal, great work. With my mama living in Rincon, PR, I am always looking for the best information to share with her. Thank you and I have bookmarked you. Stay safe ALL.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY....EARL COULD
STILL BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 281436
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED
FROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER
HURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER.
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE
MOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG
THE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 OR 17
KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 48
HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO
THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION WILL PROBABLY CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY WHILE A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INTO EARL IS SCHEDULED
FOR EARLY SUNDAY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.0N 51.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.1N 54.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 17.8N 60.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 66.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 71.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Select your island and know how many miles the center will pass your location as of the 11 AM advisory.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

[msbee]

Hi everyone! Barbara this is very alarming and we have begun to board up just in case. filled up tank with gas and off to get more supplies. I am very worried about all the election boards up right now as this could cause a lot of damage.
PS - It was very nice to meet you at the Taste of SXM.

Hi patti
it was great to meet you too.
they need to take those damn billboards down NOW!
i suspect by tomorrow they will start removing them though.
what a mess that would be if they left them up.
My husband is taking our boat out of the water now.
we'll see by tomrorow if we board the house up or not.
stay tuned

[msbee]

Select your island and know how many miles the center will pass your location as of the 11 AM advisory.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

Luis, it keeps getting clsoer for us. down to 79.5 miles for us now.

[Boriken]

Select your island and know how many miles the center will pass your location as of the 11 AM advisory.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

223.3 miles from Mayaguez PR. Super safe for the moment.

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 281744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL A LITTLE WEAKER...ACCELERATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 53.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. EARL HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 55 MPH...90
KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[msbee]

Earl is weaker? thats a good thing!
but coming faster? Now going to approach us by Sunday?

[kungfut]

so. will it hit the usvi??? we will see. I think yes.

[cycloneye]

so. will it hit the usvi??? we will see. I think yes.

Stay tuned for the 5 PM advisory because IMO, there may be more TS or hurricane watches for more islands.