ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Consensus means little when they can't even get the initial motion right to be fair

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032030
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 25 20110803
202030 1739N 07105W 8431 01559 0092 +171 +062 054030 031 033 001 00
202100 1737N 07106W 8430 01562 0092 +174 +065 054026 027 030 001 00
202130 1735N 07108W 8429 01563 0090 +172 +067 050027 028 034 003 00
202200 1734N 07109W 8429 01561 0091 +170 +068 046029 030 037 003 00
202230 1732N 07110W 8433 01558 0092 +169 +067 045027 027 033 001 00
202300 1730N 07111W 8425 01565 0089 +173 +067 042027 028 032 000 00
202330 1728N 07112W 8432 01557 0089 +176 +068 043027 027 029 001 03
202400 1727N 07112W 8429 01562 0090 +174 +069 042026 026 029 000 03
202430 1725N 07111W 8430 01559 0086 +176 +070 045025 026 030 001 03
202500 1724N 07110W 8429 01558 0084 +175 +070 045026 027 029 000 00
202530 1723N 07108W 8429 01556 0085 +173 +070 042025 027 031 000 00
202600 1721N 07107W 8431 01555 0085 +170 +070 042025 026 029 000 00
202630 1720N 07106W 8429 01554 0084 +171 +070 041025 026 030 000 00
202700 1719N 07104W 8432 01551 0081 +175 +070 039025 026 029 000 00
202730 1717N 07103W 8428 01555 0080 +175 +070 038026 026 029 000 00
202800 1716N 07101W 8429 01555 0082 +171 +070 038027 028 029 000 00
202830 1715N 07100W 8433 01548 0079 +174 +069 035028 029 029 000 00
202900 1713N 07059W 8429 01552 0077 +175 +069 033027 027 030 000 00
202930 1712N 07057W 8432 01548 0077 +177 +069 035025 026 029 000 00
203000 1711N 07056W 8428 01552 0075 +179 +070 035027 027 030 000 00
$$
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[HurricaneWarning92]

i think shes either going to make "landfall" on the Haiti peninsula or just south of it. So she would have more time in the water, but then comes Cuba, which still has high mountains but not as high as DR.

I'm thinking that she may try to shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti...either that or possibly reform around the land mass. It wouldn't be the first time that we have seen storms do that.

SFT

Yes, that can happen but also, if she goes through the spine of Cuba, shes pretty much history... IMO.

[jonj2040]

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[KWT]

HurricaneWarning92, there have been systems of varying strengths that have treked pretty much the whole down Cuba and came out alive, and in some cases ready to bomb...

I wonder how quick its moving now, it really has slowed right down, backed up by recon...think its about to begin a WNW if the slowdown is anything to go by.

[beagleagle23]

I know a good bit about weather but not as much as the guys in this thread.

So those who are informed, I have a question. Is this system still a threat to the Outer Banks/Coastal North Carolina?

[NDG]

NOAA Gulfstream flight is sampling the atmosphere north of Emily, lets see what models do anything different on tonight's run from the data they are inquiring.
Did noticed that they show H50 heights are 589-590dm, might be the real reason why Emily has continued on a westerly course all day.

[psyclone]

I did not mean to offend anyone with my previous post a few pages back. We are intrigued by the tropics and love S2K or we wouldn't be here. Observing a wild storm like Emily with so many unknowns sometimes can lead to sarcasm. It's nice to have a laugh once in a while, so excuse me if I seemed out of line....Now back to the show....I think we'll be talking about this storm for a long time. With all of our scientific advances, Mother Nature still seems a step ahead of us! You all have a great day!

The previous post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

i thought your post was a much needed dose of levity. with the apparent slowdown, perhaps emily will finally make the long adverstised turn.

[xironman]

Actually that dry air is the healthy band of SAL to the northwest.

[SouthFLTropics]

I know a good bit about weather but not as much as the guys in this thread.

So those who are informed, I have a question. Is this system still a threat to the Outer Banks/Coastal North Carolina?

A little early to tell but it would be advised that you keep at least one eye on Emily. You are currently in the 5 day cone of error. And so far with this system there has been plenty of room for error.

SFT

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032040
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 26 20110803
203030 1710N 07055W 8428 01549 0070 +180 +070 034028 028 031 000 00
203100 1708N 07053W 8432 01545 0067 +184 +070 032030 030 032 000 00
203130 1707N 07052W 8430 01545 0063 +190 +071 030030 031 033 000 00
203200 1706N 07051W 8428 01547 0060 +195 +071 031031 031 031 000 00
203230 1704N 07049W 8428 01547 0057 +196 +072 036032 032 029 000 00
203300 1703N 07048W 8431 01542 0056 +195 +073 035030 031 028 000 00
203330 1702N 07047W 8431 01540 0056 +195 +072 035029 030 027 000 00
203400 1702N 07047W 8431 01540 0054 +195 +072 036029 030 024 000 00
203430 1659N 07044W 8430 01541 0052 +199 +072 035027 027 024 000 00
203500 1658N 07043W 8430 01539 0049 +200 +072 030024 025 025 001 00
203530 1657N 07042W 8429 01539 0048 +202 +072 025020 022 027 001 03
203600 1656N 07040W 8429 01538 0044 +205 +073 027018 020 026 001 03
203630 1655N 07038W 8418 01547 0041 +209 +073 027014 015 025 001 00
203700 1654N 07037W 8430 01535 0042 +204 +074 026010 011 020 000 00
203730 1654N 07035W 8425 01541 0042 +206 +073 029007 007 018 000 00
203800 1653N 07033W 8432 01532 0038 +211 +073 029008 008 019 000 03
203830 1652N 07032W 8424 01540 0033 +215 +073 345005 007 016 000 03
203900 1652N 07030W 8430 01530 0035 +210 +074 217004 004 021 001 00
203930 1651N 07028W 8432 01530 0040 +203 +074 189007 009 019 000 03
204000 1651N 07027W 8418 01545 0044 +201 +074 202012 013 020 000 03
$$
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[jonj2040]

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[Bocadude85]

I would think a TS watch should be issued for the NW Bahamas sometime soon

[Bobo2000]

Minimum central pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving WEST-NORTHWEST at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

[GCANE]

A flare of overshooting tops starting up just east of the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I just wanted to mention this.... I noticed it the past few days.. The red circle is a very strange wind shift line/ boundary that has basically been semi permanent entity for this system and seems like the reason for the sw quad having limited inflow over the last few days.. there should a much more gradual shift to winds as you go around a tropical system. the weird thing is it does not rotate with the system it just sits there as a boundary. dont think I have ever really seen it before.

Good point Aric, as if she has been out running her inflow.

What do y'all think about what would happen to this boundary area if it were to go over Jamaica? Would the island disrupt this feature and finally "clear it out" of Emily for good? That would potentially allow her to build fresh with an established LLC over warm waters.

[Mouton]

I just cannot buy the NHC forcast track. I think the Canadian is pretty close to what I believe will be the mid term outcome. Looks like it will jog to NW, perhaps NNW for a few hours. I see it missing the trough, or perhaps some of it gets broken off. The circulation will then continue south of NW, close to the northside of Cuba and then stall somewhere in the eastern GOM probably near Fort Myers....unless it were to go south west, extremely unlikely, it will not penetrate the high to the west and north west. There may form another tough, or a hole between two highs and the storm may then move across the Florida peninsula from the SW to the NE. The trick of course is what will be the strength and I have not the slightest idea on that. Until a second trough develops, any north movement after 12 hours should be really slow. We could surely use a good soaking here in Fl as long as it was not accompanied by HF winds.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

Minimum central pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving WEST-NORTHWEST at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

What was your source for that information.

These storms and S2K are like a drug...I'm anxiously sitting here hitting refresh on the NHC site waiting for the 5:00PM update to come out. Us storm enthusiests live for 11:00 and 5:00!

[caneman]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/EMILY/images/Storm-05-Spaghetti.gif

Looks like more consensus to the East of Florida.

darc87

That my friend is hardly a consensus.

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032050
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 27 20110803
204030 1649N 07025W 8430 01534 0042 +204 +073 204012 013 022 001 00
204100 1648N 07024W 8427 01536 0041 +205 +073 214014 015 027 000 00
204130 1647N 07023W 8433 01533 0046 +198 +072 209019 019 031 000 00
204200 1646N 07022W 8426 01540 0050 +193 +072 205019 020 032 000 00
204230 1645N 07020W 8428 01538 0052 +193 +072 206021 022 032 000 00
204300 1643N 07019W 8422 01545 0054 +190 +071 215022 023 033 002 00
204330 1642N 07018W 8429 01537 0057 +187 +070 216025 026 033 001 00
204400 1641N 07017W 8429 01542 0057 +186 +069 217025 026 033 000 00
204430 1640N 07015W 8428 01543 0058 +185 +071 222026 026 031 001 00
204500 1639N 07014W 8428 01543 0060 +185 +074 225027 028 032 000 00
204530 1637N 07013W 8432 01539 0062 +182 +076 224026 027 032 001 00
204600 1636N 07012W 8429 01543 0063 +180 +077 228028 028 031 000 00
204630 1635N 07010W 8425 01549 0068 +179 +078 228030 030 030 000 00
204700 1634N 07009W 8430 01547 0068 +181 +080 223031 031 030 000 00
204730 1632N 07008W 8428 01549 0070 +179 +081 222030 030 029 001 00
204800 1631N 07007W 8426 01551 0070 +181 +082 223028 029 030 001 00
204830 1630N 07005W 8429 01550 0070 +182 +083 219026 027 031 002 00
204900 1629N 07004W 8425 01553 0072 +179 +084 220028 029 029 001 00
204930 1627N 07003W 8429 01550 0072 +180 +084 222026 027 031 000 00
205000 1626N 07002W 8426 01553 0073 +179 +084 222025 025 031 000 00
$$
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