ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

You mean an east trend?

Previous runs were landfalling on the GOM coast.

Now correlating real well with Euro.

I am pretty sure this nails it +/- 50 miles.

I have a feeling the next Euro run will stay off shore of FL and move a landfall further north to NC.

Yup. I think the Euro has favoured a stronger trough.

[eastcoastFL]

You mean an east trend?

Previous runs were landfalling on the GOM coast.

Now correlating real well with Euro.

I am pretty sure this nails it +/- 50 miles.

I have a feeling the next Euro run will stay off shore of FL and move a landfall further north to NC.

I'd love for you to be correct but what makes you say that? Do you see something that makes you think the storm would turn harder and earlier than forecast?

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS ensemble mean actually looks like it shifted west, up the west coast of Florida.

[BucMan2]

Hey Ronjon-

What might the Tampa Bay Area see with a track up the spine?
Still possible for it to run up the West Coast?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

[Frank P]

GFS ensemble mean actually looks like it shifted west, up the west coast of Florida.

Can you post the plots please.. I don't know where to find the map with the specific forecast lines of the 50 members..
thanks

[Ntxw]

Attention

As potential impacts grows near from Irma let us revisit some advisable posting etiquette for the particular threads.

Models thread preferably needs to stay in the realm of comments via guidance.

- Keep it technical if you can
- Support your thought with an image (if possible) from model(S)
- Questions about model run(s) or comments regarding the run is fine
- If you quote an image please take a few moments to remove the image tags; we do not need to see the same image 5x on the same page
- avoid short liners without model support

When in doubt post it in the discussion thread. Many folks impacted are looking for definitive data and it can be hard to decipher what is good data and what is opinion.

If you see a post that is a problem please report rather than engage so that mods may do some cleaning

Continue...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM shifts east and close to the GFS track:

[Steve]

Hey Ronjon-

What might the Tampa Bay Area see with a track up the spine?
Still possible for it to run up the West Coast?

Hey Buc man,

Look at the GFS Ensembles. They almost want to follow the JMA/CMC/NAVGEM that hit the SW Coast earlier. You guys would have tornado and wind worries for sure, but if the storm actually came in to your south, it would be a lot worse. It's not going to be on an extreme angle - probably sort of coming up from the South so SSW/S/SSE. Be ready to be without power and such for a few days and have your provisions out the way so you don't get left behind.

[Kohlecane]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

Anybody got a consensus on these ensembles over the last two days?

[sma10]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

...and they have been in these two camps for awhile strangely.

Scary run for SFL, but if you're looking for good news, at least there seemed to be a subtle early shift to the north and northwest. Perhaps the start of a trend? Or was it not a true shift, but rather just a speeding up of forward speed?

[CrazyC83]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

Interesting that they all seem to rejoin in the same place, but are divided on whether to go east of Florida (and into SC primarily) or west of the peninsula (and into the Big Bend or eastern Panhandle).

[Blinhart]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

Looks like the majority of the ensembles go into the GoM now, I would say that is probably 100 miles further west.

[gatorcane]

Another look at 18Z NAVGEM which shifted east:

[CrazyC83]

IF Irma parallels the coast on the west side, a slight wobble could make an enormous difference in the landfall point, as we saw with Charley, as it is hitting the coast at an angle.

[BucMan2]

Thank you Steve appreciate it

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

18z consensus,clipper

[1900hurricane]

It's hard not to think of the Labor Day hurricane when you watch that model run. It's happened before.

nothing like the Labor Day hurricane though. That was basically a large tornado in terms of its size. This one is gigantic! This is a large, WPAC typhoon moving in

Not playing this down, but how many times has the GFS shown sub 900mb on plots
in the Wpac this season. No typhoon has so far.

This is a good point, and I certainly remain skeptical of the extreme solutions, but it's also worth pointing out that such pressures are actually in the realm of possibility this go around. Unlike with Noru and Kulap's <880 mb intensity solutions above 30ºN which could almost immediately be discounted, this is being modeled in one of the few areas in the NAtl which could support such a pressure, which makes it a little more difficult to determine how much the extreme solutions can be attributed to over-intensification bias.

[northjaxpro]

Well, it is becoming quite clear for me to see now that both the GFS and the EURO have a very good consensus right now inside of 5-6 days of the track of Irma coming in to impact the state by the end of this weekend. Both models are nearly mirroring each other with tracking Irma right up the peninsula. Both models show very little interaction, if at all, with Cuba, which would really be terrible for the entire state.

This situation with Irma, and if the EURO and GFS both are as close to being accurate with their modeling as we know as of this evening, this would be well on its way of being the most catastrophic storm ever for the state!! Worst than Andrew, Donna , the Labor Day Hurricane, Wilma etc... Irma I believe has the potential to surpass all of them, and that is really saying something !!

I have no doubt that a big time evacuation is going to have to be carried out a n d that is going to take smart execution by the EOCs and state officials. I hope everyone is in the process of reviewing or most importantly, completing your preparations ahead of the storm.

Things can still change, but with the EURO and GFS locked in on this solution of bringing Irma right up the Florida Peninsula for several runs now, I think the changes will not be drastic this point forward, and they will be really subtle. HOWEVER, in this precarious situation here, even subtle changes can make huge differences!!!

We have to pray that some subtle change or changes with the pattern. or storm itself, like interaction with Cuba, can weaken this monster or somehow shift it away from us, even just a little. I am holding on to some type of hope folks!

Again, my thoughts and prayers at this time are immediately with our neighbors down in the NE Caribbean Islands as Irma bears down on them the next couple of days. More later....

[ronjon]

With the GFS run, Key Largo and Homestead would likely be inundated with massive storm surge. The metro areas would sustain high wind damage but surge may be small. Lake O dike could fail which could cause catastrophic flooding for those communities around the lake. Further north, wind damage, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes would be major impacts all the way up to JAX.

Why are you claiming the dike will fail? No evidence.

Imo the only way we see a failure in the dyke is if it were to be a Harvey type situation where the storm dumps over 50 inches of rain on the lake. This storm should be moving swift enough to not let that happen.

I said it could fail not that it would. High lake levels with 150 mph winds could cause overtopping. It's a worst case scenario but one state planners have worried about for decades.