Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

12z euro has 1-3" of snow for metroplex Sun/Mon

What is the timing of the event? I'm traveling from NOLA to DFW by car on Sunday. Expect to be back in the metroplex around 7:00 pm.

Has bulk of precip moving through the Metroplex late morning Sunday into early afternoon, precip quickly moves out of the area before 6 pm....

Also, very intriguing battle between the Euro and GFS....Euro is still adamant about a big winter storm transversing the state late next week, bringing snow all the way close to the I-10 corridor while GFS has little if anything.

Which one looks more plausible to you orangeblood? I know the GFS has been performing well lately, but the Euro has been consistent in showing a winter storm across a large part of Texas late next week.

[orangeblood]

GRAYSONCO.WX and orangeblood, you guys just posted 2 totally different times.

According the what I'm looking at, all precip is out of the area before 6pm on Sunday

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

GRAYSONCO.WX and orangeblood, you guys just posted 2 totally different times.

It appears as if the best lifting will take place late afternoon/early evening, which typically would be when the heaviest precip may fall. Again, for an official forecast one should check the FW NWS.

[Ntxw]

Which one looks more plausible to you orangeblood? I know the GFS has been performing well lately, but the Euro has been consistent in showing a winter storm across a large part of Texas late next week.

I'm not orangeblood, but the GFS has been pretty good so far this year as he mentioned. But that's not to say Euro has terrible, it performed very well with the last system in SE Texas being the dry model from the very beginning and it was the first to catch that storm before the GFS did showing snow/ice in the TX/LA area.

There's just something about the GFS in this situation (middle week storm) being so disconnected regarding cyclogenesis. It could be further north but it's ejection and surface maps don't seem to add up.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting 12Z Euro for next Thu/Fri across Texas. Below is the 24hr snow accumulation forecast for noon Thursday to noon Friday:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow4.gif

There is that upside down map again. Has it been drinking? Maybe Travis Herzog is onto something. Also, this is way early in the game...

Actually David Paul was talking about this and the pattern that is developing last Tuesday as the sleet/freezing rain and snow flurries were still flying on his 'on air' long range forecasts. We will see.

[orangeblood]

Which one looks more plausible to you orangeblood? I know the GFS has been performing well lately, but the Euro has been consistent in showing a winter storm across a large part of Texas late next week.

After analyzing both, the key appears to be what happens to the upper level low moving out of the Arctic middle of next week.....The Euro has this ULL digging all of the way into Idaho, creating an axis of sort for the energy digging into the southwest to pivot under, making the storm much stronger further south. While the GFS has this ULL staying north of the Canadian border, shearing out at it moves eastward. I'm still inclined to lean on the GFS because the Euro sometimes has issues over the inter-mountain west. Pretty fascinating to watch unfold because the Euro has a MAJOR storm crossing the country late next week and has for several days now!!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

After analyzing both, the key appears to be what happens to the upper level low moving out of the Arctic middle of next week.....The Euro has this ULL digging all of the way into Idaho, creating an axis of sort for the energy digging into the southwest to pivot under, making the storm much stronger further south. While the GFS has this ULL staying north of the Canadian border, shearing out at it moves eastward. I'm still inclined to lean on the GFS because the Euro sometimes has issues over the inter-mountain west. Pretty fascinating to watch unfold because the Euro has a MAJOR storm crossing the country late next week and has for several days now!!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Interesting is that it's not the GFS actually doesn't have a strong system, it just moves the cold air out quickly as the heavy qpf moves in while the Euro maintains the cold. Interesting fight for sure because it's not like the euro has been showing small amounts that have margins of error it has massive totals which would be a pretty bust if it caved.

Another interesting feature is that the Euro and somewhat ensembles are trying to pinwheel Aleutian ridging into Alaska and dumping cold into the mid section of the continent around the same time the CFSv2 went bonkers. wxman57's prediction of the year that must not be named.

[Red Raider fan]

I hope that verifies SRAINHOUTX, hope it verifies, and not be all ice either.

[wxman57]

Note that I'm being told that the algorithm used in that ECMWF map I posted doesn't calculate snow properly for Texas. Much of what it indicates to be snow south of Dallas or Waco may be freezing rain and sleet.

[Red Raider fan]

Ah boo wxman57, lol

[Tireman4]

Note that I'm being told that the algorithm used in that ECMWF map I posted doesn't calculate snow properly for Texas. Much of what it indicates to be snow south of Dallas or Waco may be freezing rain and sleet.

Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Now you are just funnin us...LOL

[Red Raider fan]

Thats it, i'm moving to Colorodo where they get snow every year, plus i'm a Broncos fan anyways. LOL LETS RIDE BRONCOS

[South Texas Storms]

Note that I'm being told that the algorithm used in that ECMWF map I posted doesn't calculate snow properly for Texas. Much of what it indicates to be snow south of Dallas or Waco may be freezing rain and sleet.

Yeah I noticed that. The Euro is forecasting 850mb temps to be around 1 to 3 C across central TX during the time when precip is falling.

[dhweather]

I'm to the point, at least there's a chance of precip - any kind - the dry NW flow for almost three weeks has really stunk.

We will finish with 0.6" of rain this month at my house, all from early in the month.

[TheProfessor]

Note that I'm being told that the algorithm used in that ECMWF map I posted doesn't calculate snow properly for Texas. Much of what it indicates to be snow south of Dallas or Waco may be freezing rain and sleet.

Good thing I live just north of Dallas.

[gboudx]

I'm to the point, at least there's a chance of precip - any kind - the dry NW flow for almost three weeks has really stunk.

We will finish with 0.6" of rain this month at my house, all from early in the month.

My weather station shows a jump in the dewpoint to 38 degrees so far today. Hooray south wind!

[gpsnowman]

Man oh man. Just waiting for the GFS to travel across the Atlantic and have serious discussions with his European pal and come to an agreement.

[TheProfessor]

Man oh man. Just waiting for the GFS to travel across the Atlantic and have serious discussions with his European pal and come to an agreement.

And hopefully the Euro doesn't budge towards the GFS but instead the GFS budges toward Euro.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh Portastorm...

"@BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF has what would be a near record US Snowcover by 240 hours. 4 storms in 10 days send snowcover to Austin to Atlanta line."

[Ntxw]

Oh Portastorm...

"@BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF has what would be a near record US Snowcover by 240 hours. 4 storms in 10 days send snowcover to Austin to Atlanta line."

And with the kind of cold air lurking in Western Canada above that snow cover, 2nd week of February magic.