ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheHurricaneGod]

If I had a shot everytime I hear about a potential EWRC I'd have blood in my alcohol system

[Cunxi Huang]

Lightning still occurring in the eyewall. It's nowhere near its peak IMO, but I could be wrong.

You ain't wrong.

 https://twitter.com/CharlieFurWx/status/1298724004727947266

[Blinhart]

If I had a shot everytime I hear about a potential EWRC I'd have blood in my alcohol system

We would all like to see an EWRC I think because it would cause her to lose some of her wind speed and with her being so close to land would have trouble regaining it, but I just don't see it happening.

[Blown Away]

Very low dense area along the coast, but many folks going to lose a lot of property and hopefully not their lives.

[cfisher]

If I had a shot everytime I hear about a potential EWRC I'd have blood in my alcohol system

We would all like to see an EWRC I think because it would cause her to lose some of her wind speed and with her being so close to land would have trouble regaining it, but I just don't see it happening.

I disagree. An ERWC would increase RMW and potentially worsen surge

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/3EdEJoG.jpg
Very low dense area along the coast, but many folks going to lose a lot of property and hopefully not their lives.

And I'm probably going to lose a lot of my crabbing grounds.

[Highteeld]

The question is will they go with 150 in the next 20 minutes and predict a Cat 5 landfall.

Doubtful; they'll probably bump it up to 145 with possibly 150 being the landfall intensity.

nailed it

[dhweather]

Cat 4? Cat 5? It really doesn't matter at this point. There will be catastrophic damage caused by Laura, my thoughts and prayers out to all in her path.

If you're thinking about riding this out, you've still got a window to leave. I faced this decision 15 years ago to this date, and I left, and am glad I did.

[Hurrilurker]

https://i.imgur.com/3EdEJoG.jpg
Very low dense area along the coast, but many folks going to lose a lot of property and hopefully not their lives.

And I'm probably going to lose a lot of my crabbing grounds.

You might have all new crabbing grounds.

[wx98]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[Beef Stew]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/JRilLlQ.gif
NNW turn pretty clear.

On visible she actually looks kind of serene.

[cfisher]

The difference between 150 mph and 160 is actually huge in terms of kinetic energy...

[Hurrilurker]

The question is will they go with 150 in the next 20 minutes and predict a Cat 5 landfall.

Doubtful; they'll probably bump it up to 145 with possibly 150 being the landfall intensity.

Exactly what happened.

[Highteeld]

HWRF forecast from 2 days ago vs reality

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/3EdEJoG.jpg
Very low dense area along the coast, but many folks going to lose a lot of property and hopefully not their lives.

The unfortunate situation Lake Charles has is that there are no levees unlike New Orleans, only a very low natural elevation in certain areas of the city.
All that marshland to their south will be like the gulf and I doubt Laura will loose much strength until it reaches I-10.

[KWT]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

I have to admit I didn't really think Laura would become quite as powerful as it is, really rather scary and impressive at the same time.

[sponger]

Still NW.

[Beef Stew]

In the discussion they mention Laura still having another 12 hours prior to landfall, so the timeframe is a little later now

[Cyclenall]

If I had a shot everytime I hear about a potential EWRC I'd have blood in my alcohol system

We would all like to see an EWRC I think because it would cause her to lose some of her wind speed and with her being so close to land would have trouble regaining it, but I just don't see it happening.

An EWRC is the last thing the Gulf coast needs, it would expand the wind radii and cause an even more catastrophic storm surge.

The cloud tops of the west quad are cooling, looks like a sub-935mb hurricane based on IR appearance. I can't believe its 946mb, doesn't seem right for a Gulf TC like this one. Are the estimates pre-sonde in recon always lower for pressure? What is the deal with that anyways?