ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SolarBear73]

The NHC just reported TD9 as "stationary." What changes to intensification and eventual track might we expect if non-movement continues?

[cdavis6287]

Due to the stationary snd momentarily weakness im beginning to believe this storm will take NAM path (slightly more easterly). My best guess landfall will prob be around Perry,fl/ Cross City and will be pushed almost eastnortheast across the northern top of the Fl peninsula late tomorrow night 2am'ish then skirt the eastern us coast up to the outer banks before being pushed OTS.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AxaltaRacing24]

At this point do we need an eye to pop out to even get it to become Hermine? But seriously with the way conditions are currently you cannot rule out quick organization and a 75MPH storm. I was reading Joaquin threads where people said it would become a moderate TS at best.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Geez! What does it take to put a name on this tropical cyclone?

An eye.

"And I'd better see a stadium effect, young man!"

NHC has always needed a belt and three pairs of suspenders at every major intensity milestone (TD >TS, TS > H, H > Major). The way this storm has been underperforming most of its life has probably made them even more cautious than usual.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting I don't recall any of the models showing TD#9 becoming stationary at any time. TD#9 continues not to behave.

[northjaxpro]

Now over 300 pages of this thead and 13 days of monitoring and no designated name yet on our system. This is had to ba a record of some sort on the Storm2K forum. That's the tropics for you? It just goes to show how challenging this science of forecasting can be.

[drezee]

Over/under on pressure and max flight level winds found by recon...996mb and 54kts...give me your guess

[gatorcane]

copious amount of rainfall for the west coast of Florida including the Tampa Bay area in progress...

[whatacane]

man td9 looks very big now! and stationary? this could go any where or do they have a handle on it ?

[Blinhart]

So the likely hood is we might go from TD to Hurricane, because it won't take much for this to go from what it is now (I respectfully disagree with the NHC and that this is at minimum a 50MPH TS) and have RI throw this to at least a Cat 2 at landfall. But it has to really start showing the NE movement soon or all the tracks can be thrown out.

[bg1]

Over/under on pressure and max flight level winds found by recon...996mb and 54kts...give me your guess

1001 mb, 33kts SFMR.

[Nimbus]

Interesting I don't recall any of the models showing TD#9 becoming stationary at any time. TD#9 continues not to behave.

Nice place for her to sit and enjoy that nice moist air coming through the Yucatan channel.
Maybe she is waiting for the NHC advisory wording to change from "trough" to "remnant trough"?

edit: to guess 1002 mb

[Blinhart]

Over/under on pressure and max flight level winds found by recon...996mb and 54kts...give me your guess

Since it will be 3 or 4 hours before they get in there pressure around 975 and around 70 Kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, which means it might come in a little stronger, later, and a little further east would be my guess.

has 200 miles to go to reach the 1am position. which means it needs to be moving at 16 miles per hour to reach that position ... better get moving lol

[JaxGator]

Perhaps it's slower movement will give it more time to strengthen and stack. Imo, this should be upgraded at 2 at the latest. Don't know why the NHC hasn't pulled the trigger but it's their call.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting I don't recall any of the models showing TD#9 becoming stationary at any time. TD#9 continues not to behave.

The 4km NAM has done a good job with track in the short range. It had this slowly drifting west and wsw yesterday and this morning as the system stacked which verified quite well. Surprisingly the NAVGEM has done decent on the track also.

[tolakram]

My guess: Pressure 1002, winds 45kts if lucky.

[Blinhart]

Am I seeing a completely different storm than what everyone is seeing? I am seeing a storm that is starting to stack together, being stationary over 90+ degree Surface temp waters with a influx of moist air getting into it and exploding at this moment.

[psyclone]

My guess: Pressure 1002, winds 45kts if lucky.

I like your pressure but I'd drop the winds 10 knots. still that would yield a name. definite slopgyre

[galaxy401]

My guess is that the pressure is around 1000 or 999 and winds will be around 40 knots.