Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

But Tampa is "technically" in the 3 day range of the track, so hmmm.

[Raebie]

Because they don't have a clue as to where it's going?

[chris_fit]

bc confidence is low. notice not one models takes it into the peninsula.. but the cone very well extends south of tampa

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No, this is not about a wobble here or wobble there, but looking at the GOM water vapor loop there is a very noticable surge of sinking air moving wnw over the Yucatan.My question is could that be a hint as to the direction he will keep moving or not? What does anyone think?

[yoda]

Public Advisory -- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

Marine Advisory --
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... arine.html

5 DAY TRACK --
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[goodlife]

it's a CYA cone....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What does a CYA cone mean? I read that in another post earlier today.

[roostercogburn]

Come on Chris, what is your gut saying? I am feeling pretty good right at the moment.

[chris_fit]

Im gonna wait on my forecast till this evening. If i dont see this turn by 11 i am on the model bandwagon

[PurdueWx80]

My best guess is that this is the ridge that has been surrounding the N and NW side of the storm - it looks to be building/moving to the west and showing no signs of letting up yet. That should keep it on a generally WNW heading for the Yucatan Channel...as is now forecast by the NHC.

[FritzPaul]

Strange: They didn't move the track, but now they added "residents in the central and eastern GOM" should closely moniter the progress of Ivan.

[Guest]

Why don't you ask on a thread that is a movement topic?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Hurricane Watch for the Yucatan @ 5 PM.

[kck70]

[/quote]Because they don't have a clue as to where it's going?


I agree...they don't

[Brent]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....INCLUDING COZUMEL.

MISSES Cuba to the west now with a landfall near Panama City Wednesday Evening and near ME Thursday Afternoon as a strong tropical storm.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks, I have watched it moving west since this morning and wondered if it had anything to do with the direction he could be moving.

[caneman]

Strange: They didn't move the track, but now they added "residents in the central and eastern GOM" should closely moniter the progress of Ivan.

Yes, my understanding from the local met in Tampa is that when it makes the turn if it goes slow it could get pushed over to us where if it goes faster it would be more of a North Gulf problem.

[yoda]

Brent, IF the storm's strength is correct, you COULD see HURRICANE FORCE gusts....

[cat]

http://www.geocities.com/cat5_monster/cat.html

[canegrl04]

CYA means cover your @**

Ivan's gonna be a cat 5 by 8pm I bet. For the first time,I eard TWC say Ivan going thru the Yucatan Channel