ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[funster]

Many people are saying this should be upgraded. I wish it could be named TD 99L. I am wondering if this could deliver more rain and weather farther up the coast than initially expected.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am going with 998mb and 50knots

[psyclone]

Am I seeing a completely different storm than what everyone is seeing? I am seeing a storm that is starting to stack together, being stationary over 90+ degree Surface temp waters with a influx of moist air getting into it and exploding at this moment.

the system is producing prolific deep convection but is poorly organized. you won't see meaningful strengthening until it can stack, organize a core and deliver legit sustained pressure falls and increasing winds. so far that has not happened.

[tolakram]

Am I seeing a completely different storm than what everyone is seeing? I am seeing a storm that is starting to stack together, being stationary over 90+ degree Surface temp waters with a influx of moist air getting into it and exploding at this moment.

Far be it from me to say you're wrong because I don't know. For me the convection is too linear and while the big blowup looks impressive I'm not seeing any mid level rotation, everything seems to be drifting NE. From the looks of the loop below I would not be surprised if recon found multiple vortices, something the GFS has hinted at for today and tonight. (amateur opinion).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=black

[Aric Dunn]

that and the 16 miles per hour is if it was already moving at 16mi/hr.. since its not that means it needs to get up to that speed which takes time which means it would have to eventually move 18 miles per hour.. sorry thats not happening lol

[JKingTampa]

Many people are saying this should be upgraded. I wish it could be named TD 99L. I am wondering if this could deliver more rain and weather farther up the coast than initially expected.

Local law enforcement in Pinellas County already reporting flooding and we've already got anywhere from 3-6 inches since early this am.

[psyclone]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

[Bocadude85]

ill say 1003 and 35kts

[AxaltaRacing24]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

Tropical wave Colin set that precedent though.

[whatacane]

looked to go more west and then south west on radar. I think this thing has a mind of its own

[ScottNAtlanta]

Am I seeing a completely different storm than what everyone is seeing? I am seeing a storm that is starting to stack together, being stationary over 90+ degree Surface temp waters with a influx of moist air getting into it and exploding at this moment.

Far be it from me to say you're wrong because I don't know. For me the convection is too linear and while the big blowup looks impressive I'm not seeing any mid level rotation, everything seems to be drifting NE. From the looks of the loop below I would not be surprised if recon found multiple vortices, something the GFS has hinted at for today and tonight. (amateur opinion).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=black

I'm starting to see some hints at rotation especially in some of the IR sat products...
gonna say 996/45kts and deepening the whole time they are out there

You can see banding setting up here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[JtSmarts]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

It seems things are a little different this year, I will never forget (dis)Grace of 2003.

[SeGaBob]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

What does it take for you to not call this a slop? A eye?

[tolakram]

that and the 16 miles per hour is if it was already moving at 16mi/hr.. since its not that means it needs to get up to that speed which takes time which means it would have to eventually move 18 miles per hour.. sorry thats not happening lol

GFS showed vorticity being elongated and then jumping NE. The loop below makes it seem like that might happen with the two competing blobules.



http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[psyclone]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

Tropical wave Colin set that precedent though.

Not if you've been around here for a decade.

[artist]

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/
Wednesday, 31 Aug. 2016

NOAA43: Was scheduled to fly into Tropical Disturbance Nine (TD9) with a take off time of 0430 UTC (1230AM Eastern). This was was cancelled due to mechanical issues that are now fixed.

NOAA43: Is scheduled to fly an NHC operationally tasked reconnaissance mission into TD9. This means that the National Hurricane Center requested this flight. Take off is scheduled for 1600 UTC (12PM Eastern) to and from MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, FL. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Anything on RECON scheduled yet? MUST...HAVE...RECON!

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/770993645101146113

still nothing on any of the sites...

[Aric Dunn]

that and the 16 miles per hour is if it was already moving at 16mi/hr.. since its not that means it needs to get up to that speed which takes time which means it would have to eventually move 18 miles per hour.. sorry thats not happening lol

GFS showed vorticity being elongated and then jumping NE. The loop below makes it seem like that might happen with the two competing blobules.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/xsd7Ebi.gif[/ig]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

we shall see. that weak low developing in the NE gulf will likely play some role it its structure and eventual movement.

[psyclone]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

What does it take for you to not call this a slop? A eye?

how about a legit windfield capable of producing sustained gales...just for starters? It has always been a big blob of torrential rain

[tropicwatch]

Might be an optical illusion but it looks like spin in the northern blob of convection in this enhanced sat image.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&palette=ir4.pal&zoom=2&numframes=15

[drezee]

Buoy 42003 over 100 miles away just gusted to 37kts