Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

It's now snowing outside, 12°F

[txtwister78]

The prediction of a high of 36 has gotten dropped to 32. It’s 29 right now in my area. I’ll be more surprised if temperatures rise to 32 rather than if it drops to 25 by 6PM.
Surprisingly, there’s a feeling of indifference around here because the “winter weather” we got 2 weeks ago wasn’t as bad as it was predicted to be.

Part of the reason for that is there tends to be a wide temp difference in Bexar County at times (sometimes 3-4 degrees due to county size in general and event itself obviously) during these freezing rain events (like the early feb ice event). If you were basically south of the airport it was pretty much a non-event here.

Temps today across most of the state have definitely been colder than forecast no doubt and so I think most people who don't pay close attention to the weather as we do here were definitely caught off guard by just the cold let alone the frozen precip associated with it. Those phone weather apps that had temps much warmer just one day ago more than likely got a few "what the hell" comments today.

Would I be correct to assume that being on, or north of, the escarpment has something to do with the temperature difference as well?

It can be due to slightly higher elevation up in those areas (Leon Springs etc)

[Ntxw]

Pretty fascinating to look back some. Few days ago we were questioning if it would get to freezing on Weds. Now the question is..can we get up to freezing?

[orangeblood]

Pretty fascinating to look back some. Few days ago we were questioning if it would get to freezing on Weds. Now the question is..can we get up to freezing?

https://i.imgur.com/XNXtJM6.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/gabE8wy.png

https://i.imgur.com/hLj2b9S.png

Euro and Icon saw it early then lost it and still playing catch up real time…nothing has really changed with model limitations and these type setups, same issues different season

[rwfromkansas]

Definitely still looking like a pretty low-end event QPF-wise, but even .10 of ice can be a real problem. Just looked at the models, and none scream ice storm for DFW IMO. But, still slick.

I just hope we get enough that it forces them to cancel school and work tomorrow. I think we will. I hate driving on ice.

???? Most all models going with 0.15-0.40 inch QPF with embedded potential convective elements….1/4 inch is the definition of ice Storm so not sure what models you’re looking at

Looking at the high-res ones like the HRRR, it appeared to be mostly .10 or so, maybe looking at the wrong output?

.20 or above would definitely escalate things.

[Ntxw]

Pretty fascinating to look back some. Few days ago we were questioning if it would get to freezing on Weds. Now the question is..can we get up to freezing?

https://i.imgur.com/XNXtJM6.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/gabE8wy.png

https://i.imgur.com/hLj2b9S.png

Euro and Icon saw it early then lost it and still playing catch up real time…nothing has really changed with model limitations and these type setups, same issues different season

The fact that the 12z euro initiated 27-28F and then rose from there to above freezing (in real time it dropped to 23-24 where it will stay the rest of today) there really is some serious data assimilation problems.

[orangeblood]

Definitely still looking like a pretty low-end event QPF-wise, but even .10 of ice can be a real problem. Just looked at the models, and none scream ice storm for DFW IMO. But, still slick.

I just hope we get enough that it forces them to cancel school and work tomorrow. I think we will. I hate driving on ice.

???? Most all models going with 0.15-0.40 inch QPF with embedded potential convective elements….1/4 inch is the definition of ice Storm so not sure what models you’re looking at

Looking at the high-res ones like the HRRR, it appeared to be mostly .10 or so, maybe looking at the wrong output?

.20 or above would definitely escalate things.

Oh I see what you’re looking at….that maybe a trend (towards less QPF) but haven’t seen much support from anything else. Did notice that HRRR completely whiffed on band moving through this morning

[txtwister78]

Making some history today across the state.

 https://twitter.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1496568199009259522

[rwfromkansas]

???? Most all models going with 0.15-0.40 inch QPF with embedded potential convective elements….1/4 inch is the definition of ice Storm so not sure what models you’re looking at

Looking at the high-res ones like the HRRR, it appeared to be mostly .10 or so, maybe looking at the wrong output?

.20 or above would definitely escalate things.

Oh I see what you’re looking at….that maybe a trend (towards less QPF) but haven’t seen much support from anything else. Did notice that HRRR completely whiffed on band moving through this morning

I will say I didn't consider the original precip, which definitely was more than I expected. That may be skewing things a bit as well.

I am hearing it is getting very slick out. They are letting students who drive leave campus now. Though my entire class is not here, so I am sure most are just leaving anyway.

[HockeyTx82]

Making some history today across the state.

https://twitter.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1496568199009259522?s=20&t=rlwIhMWiwWqEkp07BJi3OA

And to think the models above did not pick up on that

[Brent]

[Cerlin]

Flizzard happening here in Norman. Woot woot!

[Iceresistance]

Flizzard happening here in Norman. Woot woot!

Same here, except it's heavier & not a Flizzard

[Ntxw]

Probably want to avoid the bridges. DFW traffic map doesn't look so great.

[WeatherNewbie]

Probably want to avoid the bridges. DFW traffic map doesn't look so great.

we are up to 5 accidents on the bridge just outside the entrance to our neighborhood (spring valley between preston and hillcrest). i've been shaking my head at the dummies trying to zip across it as i sit here working from home in my office...

[Iceresistance]

Radar is picking up Freezing Drizzle over Austin

[Brent]

Probably want to avoid the bridges. DFW traffic map doesn't look so great.

I just noticed that especially for being 2pm

[Haris]

Nam much wetter than hrrr interesting, since it is the dry one normally

[WacoWx]

NTXW was right abt today.

Car accidents on secondary roads here in Dallas. Abrams and skillman, and then abt every 2-3 blocks another car is spun out. Rush hour is going to be a nightmare in DFW.

[txtwister78]

Seeing some signs/trends with the incoming NAM, latest RAP and the HRRR extended that the heaviest freezing rain corridor may establish itself from just SE of DFW early tomorrow morning into parts of the northern Brazos Valley region down into areas of northern Bexar/southern HC. Looks like more sleet may mix back in if those models are accurate across DFW. Obviously with temps in the mid to upper 20's travel would still be dicey on bridges and overpasses but that would be a little better news for DFW if that should pan out.