ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[LSU2001]

google it. I know it doesn't sound right, but I've seen a commercial about this and read a lot about this.[/quote][/quote]Commercial = BS probably by some enviro wacko group.

But if you've read a legit study from a university or someone not tied to the green movement then I could buy it. I've spent a lot of time down there working and its very VERY marshy.[/quote]

Try this for some light reading. http://www.doi.gov/oepc/wetlands2/v2ch8.html
Maybe this is legit enough for you. I assure you that this problem is no exaggeration nor some green movement wacko group. The commercial was hosted to the Barateria-Terrebonne Nation Estuary Program not some enviro wacko group.
How about doing a little research prior to posting such garbage, esp in a hurricane thread,
Tim

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde: pressure 971mb

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

that pressure supports a 90kts cat 2

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

I guess it's probably important to note that it is not pressure that supports certain wind speeds, but pressure gradients. While pressure-wind speed show good correlation, it is not causative. So a certain pressure does not necessarily require a certain wind speed.

Yeah theres alot of things that determine the wind speed such as a larger system would take a lower pressure then a smaller system but on Average a system with a 970mb pressure would have winds around 90kts give or take some. But finding 85kts winds in the northwestern quad tells me that Gustav is stronger. Before Gustav went over Jamaica they would be finding winds in the 50kts to 60kts range in the northwestern quad and 70kts to 80kts range in the northeastern.

[cpdaman]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

I was wondering this myself given the episodic convective pattern we're seeing. Seems Gustav, even though it's strengthening, has a tough time developing a solid CDO. Here's the 12Z sounding out of Grand Cayman (00Z sounding should be out fairly soon). Definitely some dry air at mid-levels at 500mb, so Gustav may have a moisten the mid-levels some before really bombing out.

any pro's care to chime in on this, btangy well done

anyone have a link to the 0Z sounding, ehh here's one

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78384

[curtadams]

Concentric wind maxima reduce the wind speed of the hurricane by spreading out the energy. The hurricane doesn't get any more energy that way, but it gets split between the two maxima. Obviously the wind speed is lower in either ring than it would be if all the energy went into one. Pressure, however, is *not* particularly reduced by multiple maxima - the ring's pressure reductions add up as you go in.

One thing different about the past few years has been that a lot of the really big storms have maintained multiple wind maxima for long periods. This is associated with the really low pressures we've seen lately. I think 5 of the 10 lowest pressure Atlantic storms of all time have been in the past 4 years. The number of Cat 5s has been remarkable but the number of very low pressure "monster majors" has been unbelievable. It suggests climate change is altering the power system for strong hurricanes. I've been thinking that the increased temperature gradients in the atmosphere and the increasing troposphere height have been increasing power but that there's a limit to the amount of power that can go into one eyewall so these real monsters are forced to produce multiple eyewalls. That wouldn't explain why a Cat 1/2 like Gus is running multiple wind maxima though.

[thetruesms]

Try this for some light reading. http://www.doi.gov/oepc/wetlands2/v2ch8.html
Maybe this is legit enough for you. I assure you that this problem is no exaggeration nor some green movement wacko group. The commercial was hosted to the Barateria-Terrebonne Nation Estuary Program not some enviro wacko group.
How about doing a little research prior to posting such garbage, esp in a hurricane thread,
Tim

Whoa, why all the sudden hostility? There's nothing wrong with somebody wanting to make sure that the info he reads and could potentially pass on to others is accurate. Heck, it's more responsible than most people - just look at politics.

The article looks to be a interesting read.

anyone have a link to the 0Z sounding, ehh here's one

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78384

Here's one with a comparison to the previous sounding. Things have moistened up considerably!


edit - on a side note, I hope btangy keeps contributing. Assuming it is the same btangy I know from WxChallenge, a national forecasting contest, he's a grad student at MIT and has been the #1 and #5 forecaster in the country in the last two years

[cycloneye]

The eye is getting bigger.From VDM.

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

[AJC3]

A little something to pass the eclipse period away. Nearly 8-hour radar time lapse from Cienfuegos ending at 115 EDT...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Ci ... 300115.gif

[cpdaman]

Try this for some light reading. http://www.doi.gov/oepc/wetlands2/v2ch8.html
Maybe this is legit enough for you. I assure you that this problem is no exaggeration nor some green movement wacko group. The commercial was hosted to the Barateria-Terrebonne Nation Estuary Program not some enviro wacko group.
How about doing a little research prior to posting such garbage, esp in a hurricane thread,
Tim

Whoa, why all the sudden hostility? There's nothing wrong with somebody wanting to make sure that the info he reads and could potentially pass on to others is accurate. Heck, it's more responsible than most people - just look at politics.

The article looks to be a interesting read.

anyone have a link to the 0Z sounding, ehh here's one

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78384

Here's one with a comparison to the previous sounding. Things have moistened up considerably!


edit - on a side note, I hope btangy keeps contributing. Assuming it is the same btangy I know from WxChallenge, a national forecasting contest, he's a grad student at MIT and has been the #1 and #5 forecaster in the country in the last two years

thanks for the comparison , he has always been one of my favorite posters, and i'm not surprised at his rankings, very impressive

[artist]

A little something to pass the eclipse period away. Nearly 8-hour radar time lapse from Cienfuegos ending at 115 EDT...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Ci ... 300115.gif

thanks for that!

[sponger]

Concentric wind maxima reduce the wind speed of the hurricane by spreading out the energy. The hurricane doesn't get any more energy that way, but it gets split between the two maxima. Obviously the wind speed is lower in either ring than it would be if all the energy went into one. Pressure, however, is *not* particularly reduced by multiple maxima - the ring's pressure reductions add up as you go in.

One thing different about the past few years has been that a lot of the really big storms have maintained multiple wind maxima for long periods. This is associated with the really low pressures we've seen lately. I think 5 of the 10 lowest pressure Atlantic storms of all time have been in the past 4 years. The number of Cat 5s has been remarkable but the number of very low pressure "monster majors" has been unbelievable. It suggests climate change is altering the power system for strong hurricanes. I've been thinking that the increased temperature gradients in the atmosphere and the increasing troposphere height have been increasing power but that there's a limit to the amount of power that can go into one eyewall so these real monsters are forced to produce multiple eyewalls. That wouldn't explain why a Cat 1/2 like Gus is running multiple wind maxima though.

Curt the climate is always changing. It is likely the recent increase in majors is the result of the active hurricane cycle and better recon.

[Windy]

If there's one silver lining to the timing of possible landfall, low tide is around 8PM on Monday.

[Texashawk]

I just thought this was an interesting graphic...



If Gustav makes landfall in LA, it'll be the first August hurricane in history to do so from the general position of where Gustav is now historically... almost always historically storms in this position make landfall in Texas or MX... not saying it can or can't happen in LA, just noticing that it would be a first...

[sponger]

Unfortunately, timing land fall this far out is medicore at best.

[funster]

Concentric wind maxima reduce the wind speed of the hurricane by spreading out the energy. The hurricane doesn't get any more energy that way, but it gets split between the two maxima. Obviously the wind speed is lower in either ring than it would be if all the energy went into one. Pressure, however, is *not* particularly reduced by multiple maxima - the ring's pressure reductions add up as you go in.

One thing different about the past few years has been that a lot of the really big storms have maintained multiple wind maxima for long periods. This is associated with the really low pressures we've seen lately. I think 5 of the 10 lowest pressure Atlantic storms of all time have been in the past 4 years. The number of Cat 5s has been remarkable but the number of very low pressure "monster majors" has been unbelievable. It suggests climate change is altering the power system for strong hurricanes. I've been thinking that the increased temperature gradients in the atmosphere and the increasing troposphere height have been increasing power but that there's a limit to the amount of power that can go into one eyewall so these real monsters are forced to produce multiple eyewalls. That wouldn't explain why a Cat 1/2 like Gus is running multiple wind maxima though.

Curt the climate is always changing. It is likely the recent increase in majors is the result of the active hurricane cycle and better recon.

There was a study that said the increased ocean heat was creating more powerful hurricanes so it probably is related to climate change and the earth warming. However, you can't tell all this with just with one individual storm like Gustav. I think Gustav will end up in Texas because there is nothing to push it back to the North. This forecast is totally unofficial.

[Stormcenter]

I just thought this was an interesting graphic...



If Gustav makes landfall in LA, it'll be the first August hurricane in history to do so from the general position of where Gustav is now historically... almost always historically storms in this position make landfall in Texas or MX... not saying it can or can't happen in LA, just noticing that it would be a first...

Yeah I noted that this past Monday. It would a first time event.

[bostonseminole]

055300 2005N 08028W 6977 02942 9850 +077 +077 142096 100 071 032 00

[RL3AO]

Hello category 2.

[CrazyC83]

100 kt FL winds just reported in NE quad. That supports 90 kt at the surface, although the SFMR is no higher than 76 kt. I'd go with 85 kt right now (low Cat 2).

[funster]

Wow. It looks like Texas based on climatology. Does anyone think there will be a Rita-like evacuation?