Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

Has the system been sampled yet?

[captainbarbossa19]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

Yeah I agree. It's really hard to get snow along the coast whenever there is that much moisture nearby. Models don't do a good job until you get closer and then that's when things can change in that category. The one thing that may help is the position of the low (further off the coast) than what we saw a week ago when it was hugging the coast surging that warmer air aloft.

Arguably the closest setup to this event is from February 1895. Position of the low is forecasted to be pretty close to the same place and temps will be very similar.

[kassi]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[sphelps8681]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fXcJbvB/Screenshot-20250118-144342-Chrome.jpg [/url]

Lumberton is 50% on Monday and 80% - 50% on Tuesday. 15 degrees Wednesday morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fXcJbvB/Screenshot-20250118-144342-Chrome.jpg [/url]

I am so scarred by last week with those kind of percentages and still ended up with cold rain only. Hoping for better luck for y'all but it sucks being in the NE quad of a Gulf low. That warm nose can be intense. This air mass is colder so you should be sleet vs rain at least.

[Gotwood]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fXcJbvB/Screenshot-20250118-144342-Chrome.jpg [/url]

I am so scarred by last week with those kind of percentages and still ended up with cold rain only. Hoping for better luck for y'all but it sucks being in the NE quad of a Gulf low. That warm nose can be intense. This air mass is colder so you should be sleet vs rain at least.

What are you thinking for NTX? Low moving too fast to get us in on the snow? Models showing some snow riding down from OK then just disappearing not sure I’m understanding that especially considering the dews being modeled.

[txtwister78]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

Yeah I agree. It's really hard to get snow along the coast whenever there is that much moisture nearby. Models don't do a good job until you get closer and then that's when things can change in that category. The one thing that may help is the position of the low (further off the coast) than what we saw a week ago when it was hugging the coast surging that warmer air aloft.

Arguably the closest setup to this event is from February 1895. Position of the low is forecasted to be pretty close to the same place and temps will be very similar.

Not quite. I've seen that comparison going around social media but to get those amounts way back then you most likely had a much stronger system/deeper cold in place upstairs (perhaps closed upper level low interacting) similar to 2004 Christmas Day event that dumped huge amounts of snow across South Texas.

So, this is going to be a different setup. Not saying it won't snow, but I'd be shocked if you're anywhere near a foot of snow from this. Not that type of setup compared to 1895 event in my opinion.

[Stratton23]

rgem 18z has a much weaker warm nose and is mostly sleet for se texas with a burst of heavy snow in houston on the backside of the system

[snownado]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fXcJbvB/Screenshot-20250118-144342-Chrome.jpg [/url]

I am so scarred by last week with those kind of percentages and still ended up with cold rain only. Hoping for better luck for y'all but it sucks being in the NE quad of a Gulf low. That warm nose can be intense. This air mass is colder so you should be sleet vs rain at least.

What are you thinking for NTX? Low moving too fast to get us in on the snow? Models showing some snow riding down from OK then just disappearing not sure I’m understanding that especially considering the dews being modeled.

FAB (flurries at best).

[bubba hotep]

rgem 18z has a much weaker warm nose and is mostly sleet for se texas with a burst of heavy snow in houston on the backside of the system

It also pushes the 2" contour up into DFW! Lock it in!

[gpsnowman]

rgem 18z has a much weaker warm nose and is mostly sleet for se texas with a burst of heavy snow in houston on the backside of the system

It also pushes the 2" contour up into DFW! Lock it in!

Best news I've heard all day!!

[kassi]

NWS LCH... Up to 90% from 70% this morning, but more of a mix for Beaumont.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fXcJbvB/Screenshot-20250118-144342-Chrome.jpg [/url]

I am so scarred by last week with those kind of percentages and still ended up with cold rain only. Hoping for better luck for y'all but it sucks being in the NE quad of a Gulf low. That warm nose can be intense. This air mass is colder so you should be sleet vs rain at least.

I'm sorry and I know. I posted the forecast, but I've seen this before and I'm in the I'll believe it when I see it mode.

[txtwister78]

18z GFS continues to move the snow/sleet transition line further south

[Stratton23]

Yup much weaker warm nose on the 18z GFS, snow line right at or just south of i-10 now

[sphelps8681]

Yup much weaker warm nose on the 18z GFS, snow line right at or just south of i-10 now

Oh lord. I am maybe 15 miles to the North of I10. The map that just showed now up to 8.1in over me.

[txtwister78]

18z GEFS

[Iceresistance]

I just had a surprise burst of snow, already a dusting of snow

26°F and rapidly falling

[captainbarbossa19]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9 near Beaumont. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Lot of vorticity advection taking place with this system over SE Texas/Louisiana too so the possibility of thundersnow exists in some of the heavier bands. Get ready folks!

[weunice]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

Yeah, this is my concern. I am JUST south of I-12 east of BR (think I-10) and the NAM is not my preferred solution right now.

[Lagreeneyes03]

rgem 18z has a much weaker warm nose and is mostly sleet for se texas with a burst of heavy snow in houston on the backside of the system

It also pushes the 2" contour up into DFW! Lock it in!

Best news I've heard all day!!

Yeah I keep thinking of last week when Oklahoma was really not going to get anything and then 2 days before or less all of a sudden everything moved North and I'm not remembering which model had that first.