ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

Whoa new GFS shifted way west to landfall at Apalachicola.

With the system stalling out... just shoot darts on a wall picture of Florida. One of them is bound to be accurate

[chaser1]

When does Recon fly into the storm?

Should be taking off within the next 15 mins.

Are you kidding me????? As if this P3 has been taxiing for the last 1 1/2 hours? What are they doing.... I mean, how much time does it take to load a few box meals for that small crew??

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's the best looking depression i've ever seen

[NDG]

I guess that ridging coming in from the east/Caribbean is not that strong to start pushing TD 9 that soon and the 12z NAM may not be that crazy.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's the best looking depression i've ever seen

Because it's a tropical storm lol. Hermine looks good.

[chris_fit]

When does Recon fly into the storm?

Should be taking off within the next 15 mins.

Are you kidding me????? As if this P3 has been taxiing for the last 1 1/2 hours? What are they doing.... I mean, how much time does it take to load a few box meals for that small crew??

They are flying

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... g=-81.7653

[tropicwatch]

Air Force planes will be getting into the act this afternoon.

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 01/0000Z A. 01/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z
B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1309A CYCLONE
C. 31/2245Z C. 01/1330Z
D. 26.ON 87.4W D. 27.7N 86.0W
E. 31/2330Z TO 01/0130Z E. 01/1400Z TO 01/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Frank P]

Whoa new GFS shifted way west to landfall at Apalachicola.

It did shift to the west a little bit but looks more like a minor shift to me.. maybe closer to PC.. now the question begs, is this going to be the start of a new trend?

And yep, this has been one of the best looking TDs ever, at least from a satellite perspective.

[chaser1]

Should be taking off within the next 15 mins.

Are you kidding me????? As if this P3 has been taxiing for the last 1 1/2 hours? What are they doing.... I mean, how much time does it take to load a few box meals for that small crew??

They are flying

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... g=-81.7653

OMG...... they actually ARE! Thanks!!

[NDG]

Whoa new GFS shifted way west to landfall at Apalachicola.

One place I mentioned this morning as possible landfall, I may have to keep pushing it westward to at least Port St Joe/Panama city as a western most possible. Cedar Key is certainly out of my cone of uncertainty. IMO.

[benh316]

That's the best looking depression i've ever seen

It's "super" depressed

But in all seriousness, there is just so much convection in part due to the recent dry weather in the tropics that has since, become overtly saturated in a matter of a couple of weeks. I suppose that dramatic difference in climate in such a short period certainly can help feed a hungry system for a longer period of time. Energy follows paths of least resistance and sometimes that means just sitting tight and enjoying the bathtub Gulf water lol.

But again, to reiterate - it really is guesswork with predictions for where a stalled system like this will go

[AutoPenalti]

Let's just say everyone from Sarasota to Pensacola are under the gun right now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm sticking with 996/45kts on first vortex
BTW...if you get it right...what is the prize?

[N2FSU]

Whoa new GFS shifted way west to landfall at Apalachicola.

and a little stronger and about 6 hours later

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm sticking with 996/45kts on first vortex
BTW...if you get it right...what is the prize?

1000/40kts

[setexholmes]

I know I may be -removed- a little (something I try to avoid at all costs) but I'm just not sold yet on the north east track yet. I'm not buying a quick turn to Floridas Big Bend area. I think this thing may landfall closer to Pensacola or mobile. Again just my opinion.

Disclaimer: I have no clue what I'm talking about

[terstorm1012]

We'll see what recon finds in a couple hours or so. It looks impressive on satellite but if the centres aren't stacked, it's disorganized.

Kinda reminds me of Erin '95. Big blob looked awesome early on but the center was well north of the giant mass of storms early on in Erin's history that year.

[LarryWx]

I'm sticking with 996/45kts on first vortex
BTW...if you get it right...what is the prize?

An all expense paid vacation, including an unlimited supply of Pina Coladas and a portable weather station, to wherever it makes landfall.

[OntarioEggplant]

Lol hilarious. The FL wind us already 31 KT and pressure 1009 mb just in the rain band by St Pete.

[NDG]

Is starting to get that comma shape.