CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[bkdelong]

Just heard a death has been confirmed in St. Lucia

Source?

[caneman]

Stormcenter, I wouldn't recommend that advice. GFDl has been MONEY for NHC. I would pay more attention to it than anything else.

[cheezyWXguy]

The pressure should quickly come down to catch up to the winds. 110 kt usually has a pressure around 948mb.

Actually, thats about 135mph, as seen in Ivans case while over the central atlantic. 125, as far as Ive seen usually ranges from about 955-960 or so.

[Extremecane]

looking good, very deep convection around the eye:

[Brent]

Just heard a death has been confirmed in St. Lucia

Source?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20289472/

[HURAKAN]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Rainband over St. Thomas moving towards Puerto Rico.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, thats another model aiming towards TX/MX border.

[wxmann_91]

The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.

RESPONSES (since "You may embed only 3 quotes within each other.")

Not to be argumentive in any way, but I have to completely disagree with that. We have been on the east side of Frederic & Elana, and on the west of Ivan & Dennis, and the NE side is worst by far.

So true. Put me on the west side any day.

I thought the most powerful quadrant was determined by the direction it was traveling. For example a storm moving due west it would be the quadrant on the northern side towards the front (NW). If the storm was heading north then on the east side towards the front (NE) .... Corrections gurus?

Yep, weunice is right. The right front quadrant, relative to the storm motion, is the most powerful. For northward moving storms it is the NE Quad... for westward moving storms it is the NW.

[artist]

caneman - another pro forecaster is not saying that. There is alot to be looked at - not just the gfdl. He says the gfdl makes no sense synoptically/

[RL3AO]

I don't even think its possible for Dean to beat Wilma's pressure because of the gradient.

[Thunder44]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 171747
XXAA 67177 99149 70635 04343 99957 24619 34120 00890 ///// /////
92296 22415 00130 85032 20218 03120 70690 08200 05104 88999 77999
31313 09608 81722
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1482N06350W 1725 MBL WND 35619 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 67178 99149 70635 04343 00957 24619 11850 20218 22807 18815
33764 17400 44699 08000
21212 00957 34120 11937 35117 22927 00131 33921 00128 44918 35616
55912 00624 66907 00619 77903 00626 88880 02111 99868 02617 11857
02615 22850 03120 33836 03639 44802 04610 55699 05104
31313 09608 81722
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1482N06350W 1725 MBL WND 35619 AEV 00000 =

957mb Pressure in the eyewall?

[caneman]

You know that may be. However, it makes not sense to off hand discount it when it has proven itself in the past. Further, I have seen the NHC track change by hundreds of miles 4 to 5 days out. All options are open.

[HURAKAN]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Rainband over St. Thomas moving towards Puerto Rico.

[artist]

but that doesn't account for microbursts which can be anywhere.

[sevenleft]

There is a small weakness in the atmosphere right over Jamaica...clearly marked on the NCEP points..Let's hope this will make the storm veer..

Well...Dean is not going to recurve...so the further north it gets now...the better chance it has at making a US landfall.

[Sabanic]

Maybe it's time to discount the GFDL for the moment especially with all of the
other models trending much further south then it. I could see if the other models
continued the northward trend but that is not the case here. Unless Of course the
GFDL is on the money 5 days out. I just have hard time buying into that because it
keeps on shifting north and east with every run.

I can guarantee you the NHC is not discounting it. With a storm like this approaching the GOM all of the reliable models have to be taken into consideration.

[HURAKAN]

I don't even think its possible for Dean to beat Wilma's pressure because of the gradient.

Wilma was once-in-a-lifetime event.

[canegrl04]

Ok, thats another model aiming towards TX/MX border.

I counted 4 models taking Dean into Mexico,the rest either at the US border and all the way up as far as LA

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, thats another model aiming towards TX/MX border.

Here's a loop of the HWRF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Based on where that loop ends and the direction the storm is moving, I would argue to say that looks more like a south TX hit. JMO. Definitely further north than the GFS though.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The HWRF moves Dean north of Jamaica and then veers it due west into the YP. With the hurricane approaching the SWestern periphery of the ridge by then, this will be the interesting point of "will it or won't it". As we saw with Rita and Ivan, you never can be for certain what will transpire, even from 1 or 2 days in, much less 4 or 5.