ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[skufful]

Mayor of Miami has closed schools tommorow in Dade County.. and with what I'm reading about a bit more northerly component to the WNW will make things a bit more interesting for SE FL.

400,000 kids are dancing in the streets of dade

yeah and I am sure 800,000+/- parents are pleading with the mayor to reconsider! lol

Unfortunatley, more like 450,000 parents.

[jlauderdal]

Mayor of Miami has closed schools tommorow in Dade County.. and with what I'm reading about a bit more northerly component to the WNW will make things a bit more interesting for SE FL.

400,000 kids are dancing in the streets of dade

yeah and I am sure 800,000+/- parents are pleading with the mayor to reconsider! lol

actually some of those parents are happy because they can get the kids to help clear the pool decks and put up shutters

[MiamiensisWx]

I lost all my links and I'm just trying to find the loop showing the close up infrared in relation to Florida.

TIA!

Dolphinslady,

Here is the GOES IR link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Hopefully, I helped...

Miami

[chris_fit]

IMO, it appears that the LLC center is near 18.8N & 79.2W

I see nothing there..... I believe you are WAY off....

Take a close look at 21.0N and 79.5W..... it's exploding there too. Take a look at the clouds streaming in from the S and SW.
Another thing I am noticing is a "pop-corn" type "tail" forming near the SE part of the center trailing down... It might be really doing some organization right now...

[Jason_B]

Convection getting somewhat deeper over the center as she tries to skim the coast.

[KWT]

I still think Fay looks pretty messy, new convection is developing on the northern side but this really isn't doing anything at the moment other then holding steady thanks to all this plusing convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thunderstorms intensifying near the center. Fay is intensifying,
as visible by the convective blow ups.

[cpdaman]

pretty sure NDG meant 20.8 / 79.2

and yes chris good observation of the tail

[KWT]

Convective blow ups aren't going to help if they keep decaying just 6-9hrs later, the bursting pattern should hold it steady but until it holds the convection for longer then I doubt it'll strengthen much.

[txwatcher91]

IMO Fay appears to be moving WNW still and will miss those high mountains just to its north, and will also cross a smaller and flatter area of Cuba as a result, which means less of a disruption for Fay.

[cpdaman]

nice radar presentation from Pico san juan cuba

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

i think NDG is gonna post this on one of those nifty animimating screen shots

[chris_fit]

Convective blow ups aren't going to help if they keep decaying just 6-9hrs later, the bursting pattern should hold it steady but until it holds the convection for longer then I doubt it'll strengthen much.

I agree, however it is worthy to note that blow ups of convection are the first step and part of a strengthening/organizing process. You cant sustain convection, without convection. Fay is clearly trying to get her act together at the moment, will it last is the question though.

[deltadog03]

Actually...She is getting sheared...I can see the LLC chugging a little bit west right now..maybe like 275....If, the shear dosn't relax soon...she is not going to strengthen

[Steve]

>>Unfortunatley, more like 450,000 parents.

Hahahahahaha. Even though I am a single dad of 3, I find this really hillarious.

Steve

[NDG]

pretty sure NDG meant 20.8 / 79.2

and yes chris good observation of the tail

Yes, 20.8 not 18.8, thanks

[Derek Ortt]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

[KWT]

Yeah I see that as well deltadog, the convection is constantly blowing up on the northern side of the LLC

Good call from the GFS which did show southerly shear, of course the further west it goes the more time it may have to find a better set-up again to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

Latest pic,Semiexposed low center.

[txwatcher91]

Actually...She is getting sheared...I can see the LLC chugging a little bit west right now..maybe like 275....If, the shear dosn't relax soon...she is not going to strengthen

Where is the shear coming from, is it the ULL and is it forecast to relax soon?

[tolakram]

Looks like Fay is going to hit Cuba fairly soon.



Great loop for looking at the center:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html