ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[thetruesms]

060100 1944N 08046W 6969 02861 9669 +147 +090 186008 008 014 005 00

When I seriously started to entertain the notion that RI was a definite possibility this afternoon, I was still kind of doubtful . . . and even though it needs to drop another 20ish mb in the next ten hours, it suddenly seems quite attainable

[Evac3]

So what is it REALLY now?

90kts, a Cat 2...969mb pressure.

Thank you. So that's around 103 mph?

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

So what is it REALLY now?

90kts, a Cat 2...969mb pressure.

85kt.

[bob rulz]

So what is it REALLY now?

90kts, a Cat 2...969mb pressure.

Thank you. So that's around 103 mph?

It's rounded to 100mph. There's an update for it on the NHC page.

Finally the winds are starting to catch up to the pressure. Unfortunately the pressure is going to keep free-falling and alas the winds will try their best to keep up with it...

[WindRunner]

So what is it REALLY now?

90kts, a Cat 2...969mb pressure.

Thank you. So that's around 103 mph?

Yep, towards the lower end of the Category 2 scale. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised to see it even higher come the full advisory at 09z.

[Evac3]

So it seems totally possible for it to be a Cat 3 by the 11am at least, huh. Will it be close enough to Cuba by then to keep the intensification down any?

[eastcoastFL]

this thing could reach cat 5 when it gets in the open gulf

[funster]

There aren't many fronts this time of year so probably nothing to push this north into Louisiana. I bet the models will shift back west tomorrow. Anyone else think Central Texas or even Texas/Mexico border?

[WindRunner]

So what is it REALLY now?

90kts, a Cat 2...969mb pressure.

85kt.

Ahh yeah, I always forget the jump in the scale at that point.

Anyway, dropsonde also just came in with a 975mb/85kt reading from the northern quad...funny thing is that you could apply the 1mb per 10kts of wind to that and get a pressure of around 967 or 966 easily...and I believe that at least one of the specialists has done that this season, so it should be interesting to see how they handle that.

[RL3AO]

this thing could reach cat 5 when it gets in the open gulf

Its more likely to do that in the Caribbean as its much warmer. There is also shear expected in the gom.

[Evac3]

One more question...

Say it actually does hit where and how is forecast, with it going into LA, up and over us in Southeast Texas... What kind of conditions could we expect, being on the "good side" and south of it?

I'm having to make this decision very soon about whether or not to evacuate. Seems with the track taking it right into where we'd be evacuating to, we might be better off here???

[cpdaman]

this thing could reach cat 5 when it gets in the open gulf

Its more likely to do that in the Caribbean as its much warmer. There is also shear expected in the gom.

don't think it will have time to do that before it hits w. cuba

so loop current and lower than forecast shear will be it's best shot IMO

[WindRunner]

One more question...

Say it actually does hit where and how is forecast, with it going into LA, up and over us in Southeast Texas... What kind of conditions could we expect, being on the "good side" and south of it?

I'm having to make this decision very soon about whether or not to evacuate. Seems with the track taking it right into where we'd be evacuating to, we might be better off here???

Unless you can evacuate to the west and/or south, of course. However, anything north would probably put you into some potentially heavy rainfall areas and anything to the east/northeast, well...would be just plain silly.

[bob rulz]

One more question...

Say it actually does hit where and how is forecast, with it going into LA, up and over us in Southeast Texas... What kind of conditions could we expect, being on the "good side" and south of it?

I'm having to make this decision very soon about whether or not to evacuate. Seems with the track taking it right into where we'd be evacuating to, we might be better off here???

Unless you can evacuate to the west and/or south, of course. However, anything north would probably put you into some potentially heavy rainfall areas and anything to the east/northeast, well...would be just plain silly.

How would south be good?

And don't be so sure that this won't make it to cat 5 before Cuba. It still has a lot of explosive deepening ahead of it and VERY favorable waters. If it doesn't make it before Cuba it has a very good chance of reaching cat 5 over the Loop Current.

[wxmann_91]

this thing could reach cat 5 when it gets in the open gulf

Its more likely to do that in the Caribbean as its much warmer. There is also shear expected in the gom.

I don't think it will reach Cat 5. Jamaica really loosened the storm and I don't think its weak pressure gradient allows for a Cat 5, not to mention the mid level dry air it's still struggling with a bit (note the lack of a well formed CDO). In the GOM, shear increases and I think people are underestimating the effects of Cuba a tad... it'll probably reach Cat 3, it has a chance of reaching Cat 4 in the loop current, but I don't think 5 is in the cards.

[eastcoastFL]

do the thunderstorms moving across florida right now have anything to do with gus?

[cpdaman]

lets see how the shear map evolves

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

a bit more sw shear to her north

[WindRunner]

One more question...

Say it actually does hit where and how is forecast, with it going into LA, up and over us in Southeast Texas... What kind of conditions could we expect, being on the "good side" and south of it?

I'm having to make this decision very soon about whether or not to evacuate. Seems with the track taking it right into where we'd be evacuating to, we might be better off here???

Unless you can evacuate to the west and/or south, of course. However, anything north would probably put you into some potentially heavy rainfall areas and anything to the east/northeast, well...would be just plain silly.

How would south be good?

And don't be so sure that this won't make it to cat 5 before Cuba. It still has a lot of explosive deepening ahead of it and VERY favorable waters. If it doesn't make it before Cuba it has a very good chance of reaching cat 5 over the Loop Current.

Well, if you go south (technically southwest, I suppose, seeing as it's just the Gulf to the due south), you'll be farther from the center...still near the coast, but better than staying in SE TX, which, with the possibilities presented by the numerical guidance, is most likely going to be under the gun regardless of which of the current solutions turns out to be correct.

[cpdaman]

do the thunderstorms moving across florida right now have anything to do with gus?

indirectly miami noaa discussion mentioned the surface trough is sort of an extension of gustav, and ya those storm are loud tonite huh and gusty