Texas Winter 2010-2011

[JenBayles]

Granted, I'm no pro or even a knowledgeable amateur, but what "moisture pooling" are you looking at? All I see is more and more dry air being dragged into TX and pushing what moisture existed along the coast farther east.

[iorange55]

iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon ‎...oh, and the National Weather Service Office here has been one of the worst I've ever seen... most of them hug the models like its their mommy too".

This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...

Wow, he's a little snappy ain't he? He certainly knows more about the weather than I do, but I find it hard to believe our NWS office and all of our local mets would be bumping up their totals if the whole state has basically no chance now. They're pros just like he is.

We'll see what happens.

[southerngale]

As of 4:15 this afternoon, Jeff was still on board. My hope has dwindled, however. Too many mets backing off, but I still hope Jeff is right!

Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon Friday

Accumulations of snow and ice remain likely for tonight and Friday morning.

Discussion:
Upper level trough continues to drop into N MX and is about to start the eastward trend. Surface low is developing offshore of Brownsville and this feature combined with the approaching upper level trough will result in the formation of widespread precipitation later this evening. 12Z WRF model actually did a decent job with the coastal event this early afternoon of sleet and freezing rain. This model shows the main event in the midnight to 900am timeframe and will follow that line of thinking.

Soundings and surface dewpoints continue to show a near surface dry layer that really has not moistened much today except over the coastal areas. We must remove this dry layer before we will really get things going. This process is in progress but is taking its sweet time. With impressive lift and frontogenic forcing arriving after midnight think this will be the factor that will get the precip. fired up.

Still holding with my accumulation totals of 1-3” across the area with some totals of 3-5” in the heavy meso bands which are still likely.

Will only see temperatures reach 32-34 for a few hours on Friday afternoon so what falls will remain on the ground and any melting on roadways will refreeze Friday night. Do not expect decent travel conditions until around noon on Saturday.

All 18 Harris County school districts are closed on Friday along with the City of Houston. Many surrounding county school districts have also closed on Friday.

Thank you to those that sent in the sleet reports this afternoon.

Please continue to send the reports all night as I am deployed to Transtar and will be here for the entire duration and these reports are extremely helpful

Text: 281-924-2091
e-mail: jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org
Phone: 713-881-3251 (Transtar desk)

Updates will continue through the evening.

[Texas Snowman]

So what does this mean for us in north texas? I keep hearing about how the state is being robbed of moisture but totals for our area keep being gradually increased.

One thing to keep in mind are the unusually high ratios mentioned by FW NWS.

With that in play, it won't take much moisture to squeeze out an inch, or two, or three near and to the left of where the ULL passes.

EDIT: From FW NWS...


"CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS AND ADVISORIES...AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE. SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR NORTH TEXAS...SO SMALL
AMOUNTS OF LIQUID QPF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE FLUFFY POWDERY TYPE OF SNOW EXPECTED. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO RESULTING IN AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE METROPLEX.

[South Texas Storms]

That was uncalled for. Where does he get his information from if not the models, a crystal ball?

I agree BigB. A rude response imo. I'm a meteorology major in college and he thinks he is in no danger of losing his job to me. I disagree!

[Tejas89]

Fox 4 Dallas has bumped their note on the forecast up to 1-2". It was .5-1.5" earlier this afternoon.

[Texas Snowman]

Discussion:
Upper level trough continues to drop into N MX and is about to start the eastward trend. Surface low is developing offshore of Brownsville and this feature combined with the approaching upper level trough will result in the formation of widespread precipitation later this evening. 12Z WRF model actually did a decent job with the coastal event this early afternoon of sleet and freezing rain. This model shows the main event in the midnight to 900am timeframe and will follow that line of thinking.

Soundings and surface dewpoints continue to show a near surface dry layer that really has not moistened much today except over the coastal areas. We must remove this dry layer before we will really get things going. This process is in progress but is taking its sweet time. With impressive lift and frontogenic forcing arriving after midnight think this will be the factor that will get the precip. fired up.

Moral of this story: patience snow lovers, the stew can't be fully cooked 'til all of the ingredients are in place. Hopefully they will indeed all come together tonight and a snow event will blossom on the radar.

Admittedly, it doesn't look good at the moment. But then again, let's see what is going on at 12 midnight.

[CaptinCrunch]

Fox 4 Dallas has bumped their note on the forecast up to 1-2". It was .5-1.5" earlier this afternoon.

Our local TV station Wx Met's go with what the NWS FTW says, with only slight personal Interpretation on there part. I miss the days of Harold Taff and Troy Duncan, they would go by what they thought would happen based off the NWS models.

[angletontx2]

just noticed sumthing ..u north tx folk r snow hogs lol..jk

[JGrin87]

Granted, I'm no pro or even a knowledgeable amateur, but what "moisture pooling" are you looking at? All I see is more and more dry air being dragged into TX and pushing what moisture existed along the coast farther east.

I agree, Can someone please answer this question?

[CaptinCrunch]

just noticed sumthing ..u north tx folk r snow hogs lol..jk

Yes we are...LOL

[Texas Snowman]

just noticed sumthing ..u north tx folk r snow hogs lol..jk

You know, in all seriousness, Grayson County has actually had snow/ice covering the ground for eight days now this winter.

Five days from the snow event in mid-January, three days so far this week.

Tomorrow will make nine days with the ground completely covered.

Amazing winter for sure...just hope you guys down south get to enjoy some of it soon.

[Brandon8181]

iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon ‎...oh, and the National Weather Service Office here has been one of the worst I've ever seen... most of them hug the models like its their mommy too".

This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...

Whats this guys name?

[Ntxw]

I have a question for pro mets. Why is there no soundings location in SE Texas? They exist in Corpus and Lake Charles but nowhere near the Houston area. For a region that is quite populous, why lacking in that regards? It would make looking at temperature profiles and predictions a lot easier!

[SouthernMet]

What time should we start seeing the radar light up for north Texas? Need to know if I should stop for extra coffee on the way home.

Atm it's looking like 10-12pm should start in Ntx but reach I-20 around 1 or 2.

[txagwxman]

18z GFS really backing off...only .05" NW of Houston.

To be honest, I never saw the models that gung ho on the QPF in the Houston area to being with (GFS and NAM). They have consistently shown much more for Louisiana, but warmer temps of course. Looking at the radar now, I would have thought we would have alot more coverage and more coming in from the gulf, but it's just not there. Maybe this whole system will be alot drier for everyone?

UKMET and the ECMWF had about .2 - .25" for Houston, and the GEM had .25" as well. Latest GFS just latching onto the drier air a mid-levels, thus only going .05" now. Vort max is just now coming out of Mexico, and the strong PVA+ should be pushing into S. TX in the next few hours, lets see if that kicks off any precip.

Look at CRP's sounding at 00z for more details.

[Brandon8181]

just noticed sumthing ..u north tx folk r snow hogs lol..jk

You know, in all seriousness, Grayson County has actually had snow/ice covering the ground for eight days now this winter.

Five days from the snow event in mid-January, three days so far this week.

Tomorrow will make nine days with the ground completely covered.

Amazing winter for sure...just hope you guys down south get to enjoy some of it soon.

Snowman...whats interesting is there is a possibility we could POTENTIALLY get anywhere from a dusting up to 3 inches tonight...

Then a chance Sunday, Monday, Tue, and Wed of this next week Interesting..

None of the above info is from me, its forecast from several combined sources.

[BrokenGlass]

From the local news, schools in the N TX are once again closed including Dallas and Fort Worth.

Yep, just received my evening phone call from the Richardson ISD. No school Friday. My kids are stir crazy.

[JenBayles]

Granted, I'm no pro or even a knowledgeable amateur, but what "moisture pooling" are you looking at? All I see is more and more dry air being dragged into TX and pushing what moisture existed along the coast farther east.

I agree, Can someone please answer this question?

Any takers?

[orangeblood]

iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon ‎...oh, and the National Weather Service Office here has been one of the worst I've ever seen... most of them hug the models like its their mommy too".

This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...

Wow!! Please let me know what his response is once he notices those radar returns start picking up around 9 pm tonight and it starts to accumulate shortly thereafter.