Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Very interesting 3-7 day discussion out of NOAA's national weather desk. Pay special attention to the underlined text:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
108 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

VALID 12Z MON FEB 03 2014 - 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014

...OVERVIEW...

UPPER PATTERN OVER RUSSIA WILL UNDERGO A LARGE SHIFT FROM NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SIBERIA TO STRONG RIDGING... CENTERED OVER
EASTERN ASIA BUT SPREADING WEST TO EAST FROM 120E TO THE DATELINE
TO 150W OVER ALASKA. WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
NORTH POLE INTO NORTHEASTERN EUROPE.. THE REMAINING PART OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE... NAMELY... THE CONUS... WILL BE RATHER STUCK
IN PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CONTINENT IN A MUCH STORMIER
PATTERN THAN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.


...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE MODELS EXHIBIT RELATIVELY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT WED/D5... BUT FALL OFF AFTER THAT. TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A
BIT MORE ROBUST SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE INTO THE
MEDIUM RANGE MON/D3... AND THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD PROXY
FOR THIS SYSTEM. THEREAFTER... THE ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT GOOD
CLUSTERING AND CONTINUITY... BUT THE ECENS/NAEFS APPEARED TO BE A
BIT BETTER DEFINED WITH THE EASTERN SYSTEM AROUND WED/D5...
INDICATING AN E-W PMSL SPLIT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PRIMARY/SECONDARY SFC LOWS EVOLVE IN A MILLER-B FASHION. 12Z/30
ECMWF WAS USED FOR ADDED DETAIL RATHER THAN THE GFS... WHICH HAS
BEEN LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE ENSEMBLES. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW
STRONG... AND WHERE... TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES
BEGS THE USE OF JUST THE MEAN FOR NOW... AS THE SOURCE REGION FOR
THIS SHORTWAVE LIES IN THE ARCTIC WHICH IS NOTORIOUS FOR POOR
FORECASTS OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AFTER THE ENDING EFFECTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM MON/D3...
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY TUE/D4 AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH.
THOUGH IT SHOULD JUST OUTPACE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA... A FULLY LOADED GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD AID IN
SPREADING A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. P-TYPE SHOULD INCLUDE EVERYTHING... RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH THE MESSY "MIX" IN BETWEEN... COMPLICATED
BY THE LIKELY COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DETAILS
WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED IN THE SHORTER TERM ONCE THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SFC LOWS COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FOR NEXT THU-FRI/D6-7... TROUGHING INTO THE WEST SHOULD SPREAD AT
LEAST SOME PRECIP THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION... ALBEIT ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. EC AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FAVOR
THE NW GULF AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE... SHOULD IT
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NEARLY CONUS-WIDE OVER
THE PERIOD... EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR LOCATIONS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EAST WED/D5.


FRACASSO

[TheProfessor]

[/b]




I sure hope those snow totals increase another 6-8 inches. But NWS FWD has changed my point forecast to sleet Sunday afternoon.

Note that the map I posted is for next Thursday/Friday, not this weekend.

I know, but the Euro had North Texas receiving 6-7 inches as of yesterday. Hopefully the 12z shows more moisture.

[TheProfessor]

Could someone repost the website to the SREF ensembles.

[orangeblood]

IMO, Re: Sunday's system in North Texas...All models are trending colder for this system, even the NAM, which was the warmest is now going towards the European colder solution...I'd expect the FW NWS office to expand the frozen precip southeast through the Metroplex


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Could someone repost the website to the SREF ensembles.

Here ya go:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_PMSL_1000-500_THK_BLW_

[Ntxw]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

[TheProfessor]

Could someone repost the website to the SREF ensembles.

Here ya go:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_PMSL_1000-500_THK_BLW_

Thanks

[Houstonia]

Quick humor to keep it all in perspective:

http://m.xkcd.com/1324/

Have a great weekend everyone!

[TheProfessor]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So its not out of the question that a winter weather advisory may be needed for Sunday.

[orangeblood]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So its not out of the question that a winter weather advisory may be needed for Sunday.

Possibly but due to the 60's & 70's forecast over the next two days and borderline freezing temps on Sunday, I wouldn't expect too many issues on the roadways....just enjoy the snow/sleet flying around

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So far the SREF ensembles say "No Snow for you, Dallas!"

[Ntxw]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So far the SREF ensembles say "No Snow for you, Dallas!"

Pffffft sref performed poorly last storm down south . Relies too much on NAM physics!!!

[TheProfessor]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So far the SREF ensembles say "No Snow for you, Dallas!"

Yeah but i'm not going to trust until 24 hours out. It was way wrong for North Texas for both of the South Texas events. In fact it might be a good thing it's not predicting snow right now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Let's expand that swath a little more to the right and I'm totally good with that forecast! This is just crazy that there's even hint at our 3rd winter weather event in just 2 weeks only 6 days away. One thing I do notice is temps look very marginal in the southern areas of snow on the Euro but maybe that is for the better. The last "real" and significant snow around here was December 2008 when temps hovered at 32-33 for the entire event. I was getting sleet mixed with freezing rain at 25 degrees on Tuesday...that's just insane!

THINK SNOW

Im don't believe it PT. Remember for our last storm the euro was last to come around with winter weather, then once it did it continued showing us getting 2-4" of snow run after run. I bet this ends up like all of our December storms where all we get is a cold rain.

[orangeblood]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So far the SREF ensembles say "No Snow for you, Dallas!"

Pffffft sref performed poorly last storm down south . Relies too much on NAM physics!!!

This, I personally don't even pay attention to that model unless it's for median qpf forecasts....as Ntxw said, the algorithms for snowfall seem to be way out of wack. When I was up in the Colorado mountains last month, it was atrocious for predicting snowfall even up there.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just talked to God and he transferred me to his Weather Secretary. She told me "Summer Cancel" and then whispered "1-8-1-6" ....

Sorry wxman57, it's another "Summer that never was" this year. We rule the Pacific.

[srainhoutx]

I agree with Orangeblood, appears more and more likely something will fall Sunday in much of North Texas north of Waco. Any accumulations is still TBD, a lot of dynamics involved.

So far the SREF ensembles say "No Snow for you, Dallas!"

Pffffft sref performed poorly last storm down south . Relies too much on NAM physics!!!

Yet the HIRES NAM performed remarkably well with last Tuesday's event within 12-18 hour...

[Tireman4]

Pffffft sref performed poorly last storm down south . Relies too much on NAM physics!!![/quote]

Yet the HIRES NAM performed remarkably well with last Tuesday's event within 12-18 hour... [/quote]

I love the NAM.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is exhausting. As i am happy for the opp for snow, i dont know about this. Gonna wait and see, still far out.

[Ntxw]

I'm not familiar with the Hi Res Nam, was it on the lower end of qpf for the last event?