2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Portastorm]

I think this 0z comparison image from this morning says it all. If the Euro verifies, we may have a shot at some wintry weather at some point in the 8-14 day range. If the GFS verifies, we get zonal flow, dry, and mild. And in the words of my avatar: "And we needs that!"

[josephtwyman]

looks like from monday 26th thru wed or thurs. a major snow and ice event fromn latest euro and canadian models from west texas to north texas including the metroplex!

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like from monday 26th thru wed or thurs. a major snow and ice event fromn latest euro and canadian models from west texas to north texas including the metroplex!

Not exactly sure what you are seeing for a "major" event from the Canadian.

0Z 240 hour CMC loop from PSU e-Wall

Maybe the Panhandle and Oklahoma on Tuesday, but looks awfully iffy for the Metroplex.

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like from monday 26th thru wed or thurs. a major snow and ice event fromn latest euro and canadian models from west texas to north texas including the metroplex!

Euro rainfall from ECMWF site "added features" (link may not live long as SLP and rainfall)

More typical ECMWF MSL/850 mb winds (and option to see 500 mb heights)


Don't take this the wrong way, and I'll admit, I myself am an amateur, but you either are lacking a certain degree of skill interpreting model data or pulling stuff out of your, er, ear.

[vbhoutex]

looks like from monday 26th thru wed or thurs. a major snow and ice event fromn latest euro and canadian models from west texas to north texas including the metroplex!

You keep posting major predictions, but you never back them up with any evidence. What's up with that? Where do you get your predictions from? If it is from reading a model, show us the model and explain why you think the mode shows your prediction. Otherwise it will look like you are wishing for everything to occur as opposed to making a solid forecast with back up.

[Portastorm]

Today's 0z comparison (Euro vs GFS) at the 8-10 day range. Notice the GFS digs a much deeper trough off the California coast. The Euro now shows ridging along the Gulf Coast and appears somewhat closer to yesterday's and today's GFS scenario. The GFS still builds a stout ridge in the Southeast.

The Euro would suggest a battleground of cold/warm air extending from the Southern Plains up through the Mid-South.

[srainhoutx]

Today's 0z comparison (Euro vs GFS) at the 8-10 day range. Notice the GFS digs a much deeper trough off the California coast. The Euro now shows ridging along the Gulf Coast and appears somewhat closer to yesterday's and today's GFS scenario. The GFS still builds a stout ridge in the Southeast.

The Euro would suggest a battleground of cold/warm air extending from the Southern Plains up through the Mid-South.

Where have we seen this before. Lets see, early December 2008? If nothing else we can "hope" for some drought relief. It's getting very dry in most of TX. But I fear with a weak La Nina pattern, it may be awhile.

[Portastorm]

Tell me about it. We've been in the most extreme drought category for months now: exceptional drought. It is absolutely terrible here in the Austin area and surrounding counties. Very, very dry. If we don't see good rains this spring, this summer just about promises water restrictions or worse. Yep, it's bad here.

[Shoshana]

It's astonishingly dry in Austin. Our yard is cracking - in winter. So far the area near the house seems ok.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First half of the new GFS is out, and it looks like under a tenth of precip for Houston in the next week.

I never water in the winter, but maybe I will for the foundation.

[vbhoutex]

First half of the new GFS is out, and it looks like under a tenth of precip for Houston in the next week.

I never water in the winter, but maybe I will for the foundation.

Yep, I am getting ready to do that too if we don't get some rain soon. It has now been a couple of weeks or more since we have had any significant moisture fall from the sky.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing exciting on the horizon, based on the 12Z models I have seen.

In another month, maybe I'll rename this the drought thread.

[somethingfunny]

Nothing exciting on the horizon, based on the 12Z models I have seen.

In another month, maybe I'll rename this the drought thread.

We've already started calling it a drought here in Texoma. Our only rain over the past few months has come only in the form of either <1/10th" glazing of ice, or a short skinny squall line that punched a tornado straight through my city.

However Lake Texoma is still at its normal elevation.....24 feet below the tipping point reached in June 2007. I'd assume the Red River is running pretty low.

[Portastorm]

Heh, don't get me started. Our drought has lasted since Sept. 2007.

This is the second winter in a row for Austin of above normal temps and below normal precip. And our "winter?" Ha, our "winter" has consisted of a few sub-freezing mornings and one night with a burst of sleet and snow. Otherwise, it's been like today. Sunny, windy, dry ... heck, it's almost 75 degrees at 2 p.m.

Even with the model variability right now, the general trend is not our friend. Looks like whatever trough does develop over the west or central US will not extend this far south. I am, admittedly, depressed.

[southerngale]

Sorry, Portastorm. I don't know how we are as far as above or below normal averages so far, but like David just said in the other thread, we've had a lot of freezes in SE TX so far. Quite a few mid to upper 20's here as well, but nothing extremely cold. Weird how it's nearly 75 there and only upper 50's here. (not exactly frosty here either, though) For some reason, I always expect it to be colder there than here, but that's not always the case.

Anyway, hopefully we can get a repeat of the incredible December snow, but I won't hold my breath. When I start thinking about it a lot, I go to my freezer and play with the snowballs I saved.

As far as rain, there hasn't been as much lately as there was when I first moved in here. I've been here since November and it rained a lot at first, but not very much the past few weeks. No drought conditions though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Summer 2008 would have been absolutely bone dry in SE Texas except for the three tropical systems.

[vbhoutex]

Summer 2008 would have been absolutely bone dry in SE Texas except for the three tropical systems.

That is true Ed. I had forgotten that we really didn't have a lot of rain last summer. This month we've had an official 0.39" so far. We have had far less than that at my house. A good soaking rain would be nice. We are fortunate that we aren't in drought conditions like our friends in Austin.

[jasons2k]

I read the "Year in Review" the other day on the NWS-HGX site and it said "IN THE LAST 15 YEARS...THERE HAS NOT
BEEN SUCH A DISPARITY IN RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS"

This is due to our tropical systems...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/rev ... 209pns.txt

Also a public info. statement was released just this AM saying that drought conditions are increasing...:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/rev ... 109pns.txt

[southerngale]

Well, now I know why I didn't think it was as dry as you guys thought. After seeing your totals, I looked up the totals for BPT, the official readings for Beaumont/Port Arthur, even though it's not in Beaumont (but that's a gripe I'll leave at that) and we've had 1.89" so far this month (1.50 of that coming in one day & none in the past 10 days) and we had 4.93" last month. Not a lot, but it sure seems like it compared to the totals in the Houston area.
Of course there could have been more or less at my house and various other locations, but that's all I had to go on.

Anyway, I hope everyone who needs rain gets it soon! Maybe we'll all get lucky and it will fall in frozen form. haha, yeah right.



Edit: Nevermind on it being at the airport. I followed my NWS homepage and apparently, it gives totals for the airport AND "Beaumont City" - not sure exactly where in Beaumont it is. But those totals above were for Beaumont, not the BPT airport.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=lch

[somethingfunny]

Ha, our "winter" has consisted of a few sub-freezing mornings and one night with a burst of sleet and snow.

That sounds like your winter has been satisfactory to me. We in North Texas know that it WILL snow every winter, but that every winter it will only snow ONCE.

That's why I get the feeling our TWO snowstorms in one week last March filled our 'snow quota' for 2008-2009. I know this is irrational and not based on a shred of meteorological evidence, but generally, we get one good "white event" per winter here.