ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Derek Ortt]

999 mb at 1 degree resolution is usually a cat 3 or greater hurricane

[JTD]

can anyone help give a quick summary of whats happening with this. i was last online last night we where on page 3 now where on page 17

Cookie,

To summarize: 90L is in the formative stages at this time. It is not a tropical depression yet but given it's wide circulation, it really is only a matter of time. It has some shear to deal with but it has favorable conditions ahead. The NHC has said in their statements that they believe that there is a greater than 50% chance that 90L will become the third tropical depression of the season within 48 hours. As far as track, it is way too early. The models do seem consistent on this being a threat to at least the NE carribbean. Speculation with regards to after that would be simply that right now.

Hope this helps.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,do you have the animation of the 12z UKMET?

[ronjon]

Wow looks like FL could get a double wammy by ex TD2 followed by 90L according to the latest 12Z HWRF run. Probably won't happen but I wonder how many times in the past a tropical storm or hurricane has made landfall in the same area within one week. Only recent one I can think of was Frances and Jeanne but I think they were 3 weeks apart.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009081412-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,do you have the animation of the 12z UKMET?

I can't find it. They took it off the FSU site

[RL3AO]

Wow looks like FL could get a double wammy by ex TD2 followed by 90L according to the latest 12Z HWRF run. Probably won't happen but I wonder how many times in the past a tropical storm or hurricane has made landfall in the same area within one week. Only recent one I can think of was Frances and Jeanne but I think they were 3 weeks apart.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009081412-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Bonnie and Charley hit Florida on the same day (technically).

[bob rulz]

Wow looks like FL could get a double wammy by ex TD2 followed by 90L according to the latest 12Z HWRF run. Probably won't happen but I wonder how many times in the past a tropical storm or hurricane has made landfall in the same area within one week. Only recent one I can think of was Frances and Jeanne but I think they were 3 weeks apart.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009081412-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If we count all tropical storms and hurricanes, it's not as rare as you might think.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,do you have the animation of the 12z UKMET?

I can't find it. They took it off the FSU site

Ok,the text is sufficient showing the track.

[gatorcane]

12Z would put metro South Florida on the bad side of this system not to mention a direct hit for the Florida Keys --- of course this run will change so no need for concern. We know the lessen here. Ike is a good example. This thing could be 5 days out and still veer off.

In addition Haiti, PR, and the Leewards hit hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_216l.

Gatorcane,

When I click the link it says can't find the page.

Sorry here is the link again:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

ECMWF out shortly, will it recurve it or send it more west?

[RattleMan]

that 999 low isnt going to scare me, of course this probably way underdone in this run

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

The global models like the GFS don't have the resolution to show how strong the storm will really be. Normally a 999mb storm is a weak tropical storm, but on a global model, that could be a very strong hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Wow looks like FL could get a double wammy by ex TD2 followed by 90L according to the latest 12Z HWRF run. Probably won't happen but I wonder how many times in the past a tropical storm or hurricane has made landfall in the same area within one week. Only recent one I can think of was Frances and Jeanne but I think they were 3 weeks apart.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009081412-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If we count all tropical storms and hurricanes, it's not as rare as you might think.

In the 1920s through 1940s during an active cycle for Florida, there were years Florida was hit by hurricanes more than once in the same season. Of course 2004 is a another recent example.

[S.FLA STORM TRACKER]

12Z would put metro South Florida on the bad side of this system not to mention a direct hit for the Florida Keys --- of course this run will change so no need for concern. We know the lessen here. Ike is a good example. This thing could be 5 days out and still veer off.

In addition Haiti, PR, and the Leewards hit hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_216l.

Gatorcane,

When I click the link it says can't find the page.

Sorry here is the link again:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

ECMWF out shortly, will it recurve it or send it more west?

Thank you,
Always enjoy reading your opinion on whats going on.

[Ivanhater]

12Z would put metro South Florida on the bad side of this system not to mention a direct hit for the Florida Keys --- of course this run will change so no need for concern. We know the lessen here. Ike is a good example. This thing could be 5 days out and still veer off.

In addition Haiti, PR, and the Leewards hit hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_216l.

Gatorcane,

When I click the link it says can't find the page.

Sorry here is the link again:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

ECMWF out shortly, will it recurve it or send it more west?

Apparently, from what Im hearing, it still recurves. Just further southwest than the 00Z run. It doesnt seem to be handling this one very well.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2009081418, , BEST, 0, 125N, 288W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[KWT]

This is a worrying trend, a weaker system at the start means the chances of a hurricane into the Caribbean Sea vastly increases...

Also this is starting to rmeind me just a little of Dean...constantly shifted westwards, granted I doubt it'll shift quite that far west!

But the trends are now putting Hispanola into the threat zone as well which scares the heck out of me given what happened last year!

[fci]

Wow looks like FL could get a double wammy by ex TD2 followed by 90L according to the latest 12Z HWRF run. Probably won't happen but I wonder how many times in the past a tropical storm or hurricane has made landfall in the same area within one week. Only recent one I can think of was Frances and Jeanne but I think they were 3 weeks apart.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009081412-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If we count all tropical storms and hurricanes, it's not as rare as you might think.

Yes, but Frances and Jeanne made landfall in almost the same location exactly 3 weeks apart. 2 storms making landfall in Florida at the same time would not be AS rare since we have a pretty large state but the same location only 3 weeks apart was a freak occurrence (and not much fun either...)

[x-y-no]

Apparently, from what Im hearing, it still recurves. Just further southwest than the 00Z run. It doesnt seem to be handling this one very well.

Unless of course the storm really does recurve ... then we'll all be singing praises to the ECMWF ...

[Wx_Warrior]

Or maybe it is and others arent...(devil's advocate)

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BAM Models

Wow look at the graphic and how tight clustered are the models.


WHXX01 KWBC 141843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090814 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 0600 090815 1800 090816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 28.8W 12.6N 32.1W 12.6N 36.1W 12.1N 39.9W
BAMD 12.5N 28.8W 12.8N 31.5W 13.1N 34.7W 13.3N 38.4W
BAMM 12.5N 28.8W 12.7N 31.8W 13.0N 35.4W 12.9N 39.3W
LBAR 12.5N 28.8W 12.7N 32.0W 13.1N 35.8W 13.6N 40.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 1800 090818 1800 090819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 43.5W 11.5N 48.0W 15.2N 52.7W 18.4N 61.5W
BAMD 13.5N 42.4W 13.7N 49.9W 13.8N 55.3W 15.8N 59.5W
BAMM 12.8N 43.2W 12.3N 49.6W 13.7N 53.5W 17.6N 58.7W
LBAR 14.2N 44.8W 14.4N 52.9W 14.9N 54.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 80KTS 92KTS 95KTS
DSHP 62KTS 80KTS 92KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 28.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 25.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 23.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Well most models still taking this into the Caribbean region, if anything there has been a slight shift to the SW today which is certainly a worrying trend.

Despite what Joe B has said I still think we are in a phase were Florida/Gulf is at the biggest threat.