Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[blp]

00z Euro. BOC bound... It might be overdoing the ridge a little otherwise I would assume BOC has a magnet this year.

[Vortex]

00z long range canadian....look out gom



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

[cycloneye]

It has more thunderstorms than yesterday.

[gatorcane]

06z gfs east of Florida and through Cuba again. Just like the 18z

[ronjon]

Looking at the long range, we have the Euro in the BOC, the CMC heading toward the FL panhandle, and the GFS over west coast of FL or east of FL (00z vs 06z). Not quite there on the steering pattern yet but pretty good consensus on a significant storm developing in the western caribbean next weekend.

[BigA]

Looking at the long range, we have the Euro in the BOC, the CMC heading toward the FL panhandle, and the GFS over west coast of FL or east of FL (00z vs 06z). Not quite there on the steering pattern yet but pretty good consensus on a significant storm developing in the western caribbean next weekend.

The venerable NOGAPS is in agreement on development, and the ULMET at 120 hours has a low in the southern caribbean.

This isn't fantasyland anymore.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning...

[cycloneye]

Many tools for pouch PGI46L at links. Abajan,it tracks over Barbados.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI46L.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

[abajan]

Many tools for pouch PGI46L at links. Abajan,it tracks over Barbados ...

Thanks for the “heads up”, cycloneye. (That track takes it practically right over my house.)
I’m not too concerned about it at present, though. If it develops into a TD or perhaps even just an invest, then I’ll sit up and take notice!

[Vortex]

All models on board....We should begin to see a broad area of low pressure take shape over the western carribean over the next few days. 46 will arrive on the scene around Thursday providing additional heat and instability. With the addition of 46, lowering pressures, a favorable upper-air pattern, and warm sst's this should set the stage for development. I think the area around 13N/80W will be where things get going. The process will be slow as is usual with these systems developing over the western carribean. By next Sunday, I think well be on our way to our next storm. Initially, the system will likely remain quasi-stationary then a slow movement off to the NW/NNW is likely...With the 3 big given different long-term scenarios on the 00z/6z runs last night I'll hedge on climatology and place a developing hurricane over the NW carribean similar to the CMC for now....Climatology would suggest any storm originating over the western Carribean between September 21-30th has the highest liklihood to effect the area between New Orleans and the FL panhandle...

[ROCK]

All models on board....We should begin to see a broad area of low pressure take shape over the western carribean over the next few days. 46 will arrive on the scene around Thursday providing additional heat and instability. With the addition of 46, lowering pressures, a favorable upper-air pattern, and warm sst's this should set the stage for development. I think the area around 13N/80W will be where things get going. The process will be slow as is usual with these systems developing over the western carribean. By next Sunday, I think well be on our way to our next storm. Initially, the system will likely remain quasi-stationary then a slow movement off to the NW/NNW is likely...With the 3 big given different long-term scenarios on the 00z/6z runs last night I'll hedge on climatology and place a developing hurricane over the NW carribean similar to the CMC for now....Climatology would suggest any storm originating over the western Carribean between September 21-30th has the highest liklihood to effect the area between New Orleans and the FL panhandle...

SO your using 300hr+ GFS runs and climo to base a landfall area? What about last night EURO? every GOM landmass is in play until we get a little closer to development...

[Vortex]

Im using the MEAN between the 3...The GFS to the right with its often right bias and the Euro to the left with its left bias...Take the 3 average out the long term solutions and throw in climatology and you end up in the NW carribean for now

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z GFS. PGI46L is south of Hispanola at 108 hours. Lets see how the system combines with Pacific moisture and if the model continues with development after 192 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 132 hours. SW Caribbean area starts to look more cyclonic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Vortex]

Agree luis, at H+120 appears the gel begins...Also, lloks like not only 46 but energy from the central carribean will also work west providing additional heat and instability to the region.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[cycloneye]

156 hours. Low north of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[Vortex]

At H156...looks broad will probablly see low jump back east into the higher vorticity...

[cycloneye]

There you go Vortex. 174 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

H+174 broad area of low pressure..I suspect the low will really take shape between honduras and jamaica




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[srainhoutx]

174 suggests a very broad area of low pressure with multiple vorts from the EPAC and Western Caribbean.