ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Wow,what an interesting forecast discussion from the Miami NWS office. If that comes to fruition, not only would trough pick up Paula , but some rather chilly temps will come right into the peninsula. This scenario would be very reminiscent of what happened in October 2005 in the wake of Wilma, when temps dropped to near 40 up here in Jax and they had a good cool down in South Florida as well.

well my forecast up here in melbourne has no mention of cooler weather through monday ..

I just read the AFDs from NWS Tallahassee and Jax offices and they are both indicating cooler and drier air filtering in this part of the state. 40s and lower 50s for minimums expected this weekend for North FL. So, it looks to be a strong enough trough. Time will definitely tell for sure.

[Blown Away]

Local mets in WPB only talking about a 1-2 degree difference from normal high, but indicated this would be the first "cold front".

[KWT]

Looks like its trying to wrap itself up but its not quite there just yet looking at that image above SF...just needs to get a little further away from land, also there probably still is some slight shear from the ESE at the moment.

I personally think the trough will be just enough combined with IMO a major hurricane to take this ENE close to Cuba/Keys and out through the Bahamas but maybe at a much slower rate then the GFDL is suggesting for now but frankly I've seen it happen differently numerous times.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Aric Dunn]

Local mets in WPB only talking about a 1-2 degree difference from normal high, but indicated this would be the first "cold front".

clearly a little discrepancy between the offices on exactly how strong frontal system will be.. still a little too early but a deepening low in the carribean could force a small change in the up stream pattern.

[Vortex]

As Paula continues to slowly pull away from Honduras this evening, I expect to see very deep convection(-80-85C) fire over the center...A symetrical CDO looks like a good bet by late tonight. I won't be surprised if we have an eye by first vis in the morning..Upper air pattern supports continued strengthening and the remaining environmental factors look excellent...

[KWT]

I just read the AFDs from NWS Tallahassee and Jax offices and they are both indicating cooler and drier air filtering in this part of the state. 40s and lower 50s for minimums expected this weekend for North FL. So, it looks to be a strong enough trough. Time will definitely tell for sure.

I'd imagine this will be quite a tight situation though as whether this trough is going to be strong enough to do the job...I tend to find the models slightly overdo cold fronts southward motion and so whilst I do think it'll be tight and it will get picked up the situation is very 50-50...eventually its gonna come NE/ENE its just whether its the first or second bite of the cherry...

Tonights Dmax should be very enthralling in terms of how the system evolves, just hope it gets away from land quickly enough...

[SouthFloridawx]

As Paula continues to slowly pull away from Honduras this evening, I expect to see very deep convection(-80-85C) fire over the center...A symetrical CDO looks like a good bet by late tonight. I won't be surprised if we have an eye by first vis in the morning..Upper air pattern supports continued strengthening and the remaining environmental factors look excellent...

Interesting that there is more convection on the W/SW/S sides of Paula...

[KWT]

As Paula continues to slowly pull away from Honduras this evening, I expect to see very deep convection(-80-85C) fire over the center...A symetrical CDO looks like a good bet by late tonight. I won't be surprised if we have an eye by first vis in the morning..Upper air pattern supports continued strengthening and the remaining environmental factors look excellent...

The only thing I can see that maybe an issue is there does appear to be abit of shear at the moment...and it looks a touch lopsided unless the LLC has moved westwards...

[northjaxpro]

I just read the AFDs from NWS Tallahassee and Jax offices and they are both indicating cooler and drier air filtering in this part of the state. 40s and lower 50s for minimums expected this weekend for North FL. So, it looks to be a strong enough trough. Time will definitely tell for sure.

I'd imagine this will be quite a tight situation though as whether this trough is going to be strong enough to do the job...I tend to find the models slightly overdo cold fronts southward motion and so whilst I do think it'll be tight and it will get picked up the situation is very 50-50...eventually its gonna come NE/ENE its just whether its the first or second bite of the cherry...

I could not agree with you more KWT.

[Blown Away]

Local mets in WPB only talking about a 1-2 degree difference from normal high, but indicated this would be the first "cold front".

clearly a little discrepancy between the offices on exactly how strong frontal system will be.. still a little too early but a deepening low in the carribean could force a small change in the up stream pattern.

NWS Melbourne talks about this front moving through Friday-Sunday and based on the NHC Paula position in 5 days, it seems this weekends cold front may leave Paula behind?

[AdamFirst]

Local CBS met says that Paula is going to stay trapped off the Yucatan and we shouldn't worry about it for now.

[gatorcane]

Local CBS met says that Paula is going to stay trapped off the Yucatan and we shouldn't worry about it for now.

why, why, why do the News stations make such bold statements. Clearly the NHC indicates its a very uncertain forecast......

[KWT]

AF, my best advice is just to keep a very close eye on it and perhaps just be ready for this one, personally I suspect most of Florida will be shielded by some pretty strong shear and so if this one does try to get far enough north the likelyhood is it'll get sheared badly...unless it perfectly times it like Wilma did...

The NHC forecast will probably look very different in 24hrs anyway!

Afterall the first forecast always tends to be the one with the biggest errors.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 2145z.

[psyclone]

isn't the front supposed to blow through florida when paula is still down in the caribbean? if so this would probably enhance the winter-like humidity levels and make it very difficult if not impossible for any storm of consequence to head up toward florida. imo, i know it's soon but i supsect whatever becomes of this takes a hard right well south of Florida. i hope i'm somewhat wrong because we need some rain here...

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[KWT]

Very good looking system there Cycloneye, the recon pass does suggest the center is on the eastern side of the convection though which is what you'd expect some a weakly sheared system. It'll probably sort itself out as it pulls away from land.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep... Looks like it's starting to wrap around to the East a bit more...

[KWT]

Lets just hope it doesn't turn into this sort of system, similar time of year and maybe a similar loop before it recurves?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Cuba_hurricane

[Vortex]

The latest at 2145z.

notice the mushroom look right over the center as we begin to lose daylight..This deeper convection should continue to fire over the center resulting in pressure falls and a stronger system as we move through the evening...