Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Looks like there is a little more moisture around Amarillo than expected.

Since the short range models did such a good job last night, I'd expect the same tonight. They were showing some flurries/very light snow for us. I haven't checked them this morning, though.

EDIT: Looks like the RR model is still showing some getting here. RUC shows it getting pretty darn close. Thinking we'll see some flurries at least....maybe...hopefully.

Maybe a light dusting? What time do you think the light snow might start?

[iorange55]

Looks like there is a little more moisture around Amarillo than expected.

Since the short range models did such a good job last night, I'd expect the same tonight. They were showing some flurries/very light snow for us. I haven't checked them this morning, though.

EDIT: Looks like the RR model is still showing some getting here. RUC shows it getting pretty darn close. Thinking we'll see some flurries at least....maybe...hopefully.

Maybe a light dusting? What time do you think the light snow might start?

Maybe around dinner time? Then lasting for 2-3 hours. It might not even reach the ground, though. We'll have to wait and see, like always.

Also, newest RUC run coming out, looks like it's picking up more moisture to our southwest.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Which site do you use to view the RUC? Twisterdata or wunderground, or is there a better site?

[iorange55]

Which site do you use to view the RUC? Twisterdata or wunderground, or is there a better site?

The site I linked you to the other day has it. If you look at the drop down menu that says "model" you'll see it!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Which site do you use to view the RUC? Twisterdata or wunderground, or is there a better site?

The site I linked you to the other day has it. If you look at the drop down menu that says "model" you'll see it!

Perfect! Let's hope the 12Z GFS is generious with moisture!

[iorange55]

Which site do you use to view the RUC? Twisterdata or wunderground, or is there a better site?

The site I linked you to the other day has it. If you look at the drop down menu that says "model" you'll see it!

Perfect! Let's hope the 12Z GFS is generious with moisture!

The 12z didn't show much. I wasn't expecting it to show anything, it didn't perform as good as the short range models last night. I'd stick with them and say we have the possibility of some flurries later.

Probably nothing more than flurries, though.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I'm happy with flurries!

[aggiecutter]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes in NE Texas on Wednesday as the cold pocket moves over my area. Moisture will be limited, but the 12z run of the GFS did show a little moisture at the 700mb level.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The latest RR model looks pretty good at hour 8. Let's hope the trend continues..anybody have any input?

[iorange55]

The radar out west is still looking encouraging. I'd keep watching the radar throughout the day, it might give the best idea of what is to come.

[newtotex]

Are we about at the "throw out the maps and look out the window" point, or are the maps still useful?

[iorange55]

Are we about at the "throw out the maps and look out the window" point, or are the maps still useful?

The short range models can still be useful, I suppose. Like the RR shows us getting some flurries/light snow, and the RUC shows it getting close, but takes most of it to our north. So, for the next couple of hours I would still look at them.

I am paying more attention to the radar, though.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Are we about at the "throw out the maps and look out the window" point, or are the maps still useful?

The short range models can still be useful, I suppose. Like the RR shows us getting some flurries/light snow, and the RUC shows it getting close, but takes most of it to our north. So, for the next couple of hours I would still look at them.

I am paying more attention to the radar, though.

I know the Canadian model can be way out there at times, but what do you think about the latest run?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Looking at the latest RR model, it appears the system that's now over southern New Mexico will move southeast then turn towards the northeast possibly providing light snowfall starting at hour 15. Am I seeing this and interpreting it the right way?

[Tejas89]

Radar looked real promising an hour ago W of FTW. Thought we might see a dusting into Dallas county. Things have dried up very quickly though.

So far this is shaping up to be our third cooler-than-normal December in a row in NTX.

[iorange55]

Looking at the latest RR model, it appears the system that's now over southern New Mexico will move southeast then turn towards the northeast possibly providing light snowfall starting at hour 15. Am I seeing this and interpreting it the right way?

It does show a light dusting around here. If this model is right, then flurries/light snow looks good.

It was right last night, so maybe it's handling this system well. Watch out west on the radar throughout the day. See how the moisture is holding up and check to see which stations are actually reporting snow reaching the ground.

[cycloneye]

For the Texas friends who may want to know how is La Nina doing as it will be important to see how things will be on the pattern for the next 2-3 months,here is this week's update by CPC.. I can tell you that she is a little bit more colder.See at link below.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=2207381#p2207381

[newtotex]

What is the time frame for the potential snow/flurries today? Sorry for sounding ignorant, but in regards to iorange55's post, what would hr 15 be, 3am??

[iorange55]

What is the time frame for the potential snow/flurries today? Sorry for sounding ignorant, but in regards to iorange55's post, what would hr 15 be, 3am??

Well, the first signs of flurries show up around dinner time and then more light moisture spreads in during the rest of the night. That one run did show a light band moving in very early in the morning.

It's worth noting the RUC has moved some moisture a little further south and now shows a light dusting from DFW north.


EDIT 2:30pm: Latest NAM gives us flurry action and the RR continues to show enough moisture for flurries/light snow. Should be interesting to watch the radar in a few hours. See how far east and south the moisture makes it.

[CaptinCrunch]

NOUS44 KFWD 051905
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051921-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST MON DEC 05 2011

...PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS SNOWFALL TOTALS ON MONDAY DECEMBER 5...

LOCATION /INCHES/
===============================

...COOKE...
GAINESVILLE 2.0
MUENSTER 2.0

...EASTLAND...
EASTLAND 3.0
CISCO 1.5
RANGER 0.5

...ERATH...
7 N HUCKABY 0.5

...GRAYSON...
WHITESBORO 1.0

...JACK...
JACKSBORO 2.5

...MONTAGUE...
BOWIE 2.0
NOCONA T

...PALO PINTO...
MINERAL WELLS 2.0
GORDON 1.0
STRAWN 1.0
1 NNE MINERAL WELLS 1.0

...STEPHENS...
GUNSIGHT 5.0
BRECKENRIDGE 3.0

...WISE...
2 E BOONSVILLE 2.0
DECATUR 2.0
1 W DECATUR 1.0

...YOUNG...
GRAHAM 1.0

$$